Bubbler86

Nooners...mostly cloudy and 65. Very windy, a bit too much to be comfortable. Just noticed this post from MU last week. He will have had a good call if the current trend continues and whatever rain we may get also goes to the wayside. Refer to Tuesday's discussion below for more in-depth details on the quiet pattern. Looking ahead into the middle and latter part of next week, the forecast remains rife with uncertainty. A storm system may develop along an old frontal boundary several hundred miles off the Florida/Georgia coastline from Monday into Tuesday, but it's equally as likely that it doesn't. Even if development occurs, the "Rex Block" over the Northeast may keep the system offshore or force it westward into the Carolinas or southern mid-Atlantic States. Only if the block weakens more quickly than anticipated could the system track northward and veer into the Delmarva Region and southern PA. Usually, blocking patterns of this nature take a long time to break down, and their strength and duration are often underestimated by computer models. I expect this case to be no exception and, as a result, lean toward a dry outcome and continuation of partly-to-mostly sunny and warm weather next Wednesday-Friday. However, this is just my gut instinct (from experience) and by no means a lock, so check back on Tuesday for an update. As I always like to say: "Only time will tell." In the meantime, enjoy the spectacular weather this weekend, and lather on the sunscreen!

The Nam and Fv3 have nothing of note over my way. Discouraging.

It is a but uncanny and unfortunate the way qpf seems to be missing us more times than not. It is widely known that I am all over the "drought band wagon" but imagine where we would be had the Aug 7-9th time frame never happened. I still think it rains some in the next 2 days, but the area wide soaker theory is tough to see happening now. In defense of the models this was a very winter storm like situation where something was forming off the SE coast and the timing and eventual track was always in question due to the lack of data until the system formed. Model watching is indeed a lot of gambling if you go all in and proclaim it as fact when speaking to people who listen to your weather chops. When models are stated as fact, you probably have a good 50/50 chance of being wrong. For a lot of people (JI comes to the forefront) the model watching is really the bigger deal and the actual weather that happens is the under card.

I think they did fairly well in the mid and long term, but yea models really change drastically short term more than I think they used to. You and I were chatting about this system a good 5-7 days ago. It has been a constant struggle over the last week in how much the pig ridge was going to push this thing south of us.

They did get to 80-81 today.

MDT bagged an 86 today. Mid-summer temps.

This has been the warmest mid Sept since I moved back in 2018; Mid-Summer temps. Having to water the plants twice a day.

Regan National got to the mid 80's, Dulles 82 or 83.

It got to 88 at Rou. It has been a very hot mid Sept albeit nice morning lows.

The MA thread?

There are not ticket required events here so probably not him!

Eb nooners. Martinsburg WV, 75 and a beaut.

Plus you will not get to cut the grass!

Grass is mostly done. It has turned an off-color green/gray. With the limited sun it will get going forward I will just be touching up some areas which grow a bit IF it rains. My sugar maple in the back is already about 20% on the ground which will also stop the growth covering the grass. Fall is almost in full swing up in the mountains to my East. About 30% of the trees have some level of change in them already. Peak is going to be early to Mid Oct it seems.

Not that it totally matters but current progs depict any rain starting Tue shortly after lunch (in the south part of our region.) Some Mesos's and Globals are not really all that wet so waiting until I see it for myself!

How could something like this happen with the surplus?

Impressive. Record for today is 90.

In the same parking area as south Hanover bowl. Not bad but small portions.

Eb nooners....Jacquelines Bakery in Hanover. A warm 82.

74

OPs have been vacillating between keeping the ridge too strong vs. the sub trop low attacking it. Right now, attacking is the overwhelming winner. We get 1"+ and the hoses are done for the season (at least for grass.). This is the earliest I have stopped mowing since coming back in 2018. 4/5 of the yard is sleeping for winter at this point. The water I am putting on it is the keep it alive as even asleep, it needs water 1-2 times a week until real hibernation when freezes start.

56 for a low this AM. Icon had been one of the driest so a good sign. Overnight runs still show Tue afternoon as the hope. If this comes through there were some 250 hour plus GFS runs that showed a similar outcome. Possibly your ensembles as well though I did not look at them myself.

Mow 18...the final full mow of the year, is in the books. The great fall drought of 2024 has put most of the grass to sleep. The new/good mower is away until next spring. Any mowing or leaf chopping moving forward is done by the old mower aka the yard pig. Only 18 mows...crazy.

Last 4 runs of the "on the 0 and 12" EC shows a good depiction of the issues with the pig ridge letting rain in here next week. It keeps gyrating between a miss to the south or just catching some of us. A real winter preview of model watching. Here is 0Z yesterday through 12Z today.

After approaching 90 yesterday, it is only 66 here right now.