Bubbler86

Northern Eyewall coming ashore in Tampa/St Pete right now per Bettes.

The eye way ranges from Southern Tampa Bay down to south of Sarasota right now with the center being near Sarasota. Extremely large eye now.

Extreme Wind Warning FLC057-081-103-100130- /O.NEW.KTBW.EW.W.0001.241009T2236Z-241010T0130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Extreme Wind Warning National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL 636 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a * Extreme Wind Warning for... Manatee County in west central Florida... Pinellas County in west central Florida... Hillsborough County in west central Florida... * Until 930 PM EDT. * At 635 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated extreme winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Milton, were moving onshore along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of South Bradenton to 25 miles southwest of Anna Maria to 52 miles southwest of Saint Armands Key, moving northeast at 30 mph. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter. Take action now to protect your life! &&

I think most people left will not get rescue until windows go below 40. He has his eyes on Tampa right now with the eye wall. But he is falling apart like the Cowboys Super Bowl aspirations.

I think some East Coast people are in for a tough time as well. From the 'Cane itself then the onshore flow once it passes by.

It seems to be moving for the coast a bit early compared to some of the models the last 24 hours...but will go with high Cat 2 or Low Cat 3 at landfall. With it being 130 now, Cat 4 is probably off the books.

Wobble, wobble, wobble. Forecast track has moved North a bit but still into Bradenton or Sarasota vs. Tampa WFLA.com Wobble Tracker

Florda Man is an insult. Ha. I unfortunately think this thing landfalls into Tampa or St Pete and throws 10–15-foot surge into Tampa and still destroys LBK, AMI, Bradenton Beaches, etc. This is all assuming the surge predicts are right, I have no way of knowing that other than to trust those models. I think the worst case for money is a landfall from Cedar Key down to Sarasota. If I am wrong and it is down as far as Sarasota, then Tampa is spared some surge. The Barrier Islands all the way down to the tip of Florida get flooded as well if it landfalls between Cedar Key and Sarasota. Someone could see surge going 5-10 miles inland.

Nooners...58 and Mostly Sunny. Milton moving NNE now as Tampa watches nervously.

It is still just 41 right now. Someone Waybesboro itself reporting 38.

40 this AM.

Yea, a low area. Prayers for them.

And they are on the ocean on the bay? I forget. Either way I personally think they should leave.

I second this thought and also will mention that discussing this does not mean we are wishing it. I know sometimes it can come off that way. I surely hope they have left.

I have heard lots of stories of that so not sure of specifics but not nearly what you would think it would be. Getting your house on stilts is one way to lower that. The companies are basically trying to price it to where no one chooses it. In Ocala flood insurance can cost a good 3-5K a year with the entire policy being 6-9K. For a 300-500K house.

A lot of those Ocean side places may eventually not be able to get flood insurance even at some of the crazy 40K per year rates that some people pay now.

Just saw Daytona now has Mandatory evacs for any area east of the Intercoastal.

18Z RRFS, the new kid in town, has a St Pete Landfall (not great for TPA) Thursday 3-5AMish.

18Z GFS slows down landfall as well and takes it almost directly over Tampa. But it relies on a sharp East turn to do it. Landfall not until 3AMish.

I am not a trop expert either, just following the model trends. I do know that once it builds up a surge in the ocean, it takes a long time for that to wind down.

The landfall keeps getting backed up a bit though. Changes aplenty. Still 36+ hours away now on some. The Euro had Thursday (edit) 7AM!

Spag models go south, 18Z Icon ticks north. The Nam has done well with tropical lately and it says an LBK to St Pete hit it appears.

Too many people get tied up in models and watching tracks and almost every single major 'Cane goes off the forecast at the end. I do not blame anyone from Steinhatchee down to Marco Island from moving inland and not sure why that mom would not do the same. Would you want to be on the Keys now trusting meteorology? I keep referring back to Irma since it was one I lived through and 12-24 hours before landfall, everyone was sure TPA was toast and would be destroyed. It's made final landfall almost 200 miles away in Marco Island with minimal issues, outside power, in the very areas that were doomed 24 hours prior. The situation on the East Coast ended up being worse than what Tampa saw.

When they got us all to leave for Irma they showed animations of what happens when your garage door goes during a hurricane.

Lots of people running out of gas or Tesla's running out of juice. Stranded all over.