Bubbler86

18Z GFS slows down landfall as well and takes it almost directly over Tampa. But it relies on a sharp East turn to do it. Landfall not until 3AMish.

I am not a trop expert either, just following the model trends. I do know that once it builds up a surge in the ocean, it takes a long time for that to wind down.

The landfall keeps getting backed up a bit though. Changes aplenty. Still 36+ hours away now on some. The Euro had Thursday (edit) 7AM!

Spag models go south, 18Z Icon ticks north. The Nam has done well with tropical lately and it says an LBK to St Pete hit it appears.

Too many people get tied up in models and watching tracks and almost every single major 'Cane goes off the forecast at the end. I do not blame anyone from Steinhatchee down to Marco Island from moving inland and not sure why that mom would not do the same. Would you want to be on the Keys now trusting meteorology? I keep referring back to Irma since it was one I lived through and 12-24 hours before landfall, everyone was sure TPA was toast and would be destroyed. It's made final landfall almost 200 miles away in Marco Island with minimal issues, outside power, in the very areas that were doomed 24 hours prior. The situation on the East Coast ended up being worse than what Tampa saw.

When they got us all to leave for Irma they showed animations of what happens when your garage door goes during a hurricane.

Lots of people running out of gas or Tesla's running out of juice. Stranded all over.

I was just going to comment that we have soared to 71 here but still very nice out.

It appears to be taking a big breath of air and headed for top category again. Hurricane models continue to insist the center goes over St Pete and worst cases TPA while some globals save TPA the worst in lieu of Bradenton down to Sanibel area. Poor Sanibel. They are nowhere near done rebuilding and if this thing throws 10+ feet of water over them, it is going to be tough to come back again.

I was going to joke about that but Googled First and saw quite a few occurrences where Trop Storms affected Arizona and Phoenix. A surprise to me. Hurricane Nora caused a dam to fail in Phoenix in 1997.

What was that cop doing in the pile?

He had a Monopoly on 9th inning grand slams that game.

Milton Bradley

Panama has never (since record keeping) faced a hurricane hit. They like Los Americanos there.

42 this AM.

I made a fairly drastic comment not too long ago and still stand by it. Because this system is charging in from the west south west instead of the South, one or more barrier islands could face permanent change making them hard to continue being habitable...at least parts of them. New rivers where there were none, possibly most of current beaches going underwater for good.

Yes, it is scary....Even for people well inland. Up in Bradenton the Manatee river could go doubt digits high 10miles inland. And insurance cost 20-40 grand a year so most do not have it (people on the water). Fingers crossed the storm goes south of them. Still bad but maybe not a catastrophe. Of course that is passing the buck to someone else. Little talked about but people in Daytona and the east coast could have severe surge as Milton is exiting.

My friend that lost her house was given over 10k and a temp trailer.

I was waiting for the almost inevitable model runs away from Tampa and they have started as well. Not a done deal but rare this would have stayed on target for 3 straight days.

If we can get near the DP, some colder areas have a shot Thursday AM and Friday AM. Frost Adv out tonight for Eastern WV.

Euro wave heights 50 feet in Tampa Bay. Incredible.

10-15! Incredible graphic and forecast

Umm....

I do worry about the animals there. Surge in Tampa will destroy much of the town in this scenario

How about Busch Gardens?