frd

Near the 10 th

DAMN..... direct discharge , keep the 7 th to the 12 th open for more snow here .

As mentioned yesterday, waiting for the Euro to flip to the GEFS side, well , it did !

The winds inland will be strong, added to the heavier snow periods and it will look awesome outside ! Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 336 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 13 to 18 ft expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 10 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

The long duration is very interesting as well. Here is a small section about what DT was talking about from his update 1 hour ago. < I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas. The high resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM as well as other models continue to show 12 to to as much as 30 inches of snow in South Central AND Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as much of New Jersey AND into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore. It is quite possible that Hagerstown and Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC. With that much snow … being that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in. It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester. More later >

I LOVE that animation !!!!!!

Watch into warning here just now - URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 DEZ001-MDZ012-015-019-310945- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.210131T1100Z-210202T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.210131T1200Z-210202T1500Z/ New Castle-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot- Including the cities of Wilmington, Chestertown, Centreville, and Easton 344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

Is it even conceivable the NAM can out forecast a blend of superior models and ensembles at this juncture ?

Interesting, and of course never easy. But, happy to be getting snow and cool to watch the evolution of the storm. Watch that third piece.

As mentioned above with that depiction maybe the Euro will trend wetter during the next 12 to 24 hours for Southern sections, even a bit has significant implications.

40- ish, I don't buy the temps on the GFS. Your area struggles, but would think temps come crashing down, " hopefully ".

I stand corrected, I like this better at hour 90

Moisture trend ^

This looks acceptable

Para may be going South a tad

Another shift South , more focus Northern Delaware area

Not sure if posted

Been targeting that general area for the last 36 hours, sometimes DC, sometimes Northern Delaware. ICON ticked South , maybe a trend, still way too complicated.

Good thump then a transition in areas further South

Interesting observation by Jack, the trend further NW may continue today . For us in the low lands and further South that would be bad news. I can imagine that if the front thump does not deliver this may end up being yet another disappointing event. We still have a ways to go.

SREF

This time frame does have pretty good potential to deliver .

Very true. Arguments were made for suppression and others for going North. For my hood not liking the trends. But I realize it is a very complex situation. Mount Holly gives a range from 4 inches to 12 in the WS Watch overview. I always felt the best snows would go North, simply due to storm evolution, not just climo.

We are closer to the event , wondering if these higher totals carry any weight, sampling should be better as mentioned earlier.

OMG