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I want my snow squalls

Recall there was actually quite a bit of decent consensus from the ensembles that decent cold was coming but now it really doesn't look that great, most of the cold is out West

Honestly thinking that this is the last chance at getting lucky for while in terms of significant area wide snowfall in areas that have missed most of the pathetic snow this season so far. . Hopefully changes with the TPV take place in the days ahead and the Euro OP track may trend more Southward in time . EPS is starting to hint at that. Certainly according to some, including HM the crazy situation out West may cause last minute model swings downstream and effect storm evolution even at short range. I mean really, - 6 AO and all that arctic cold. I am not interested in ice or snow to rain. I want an all snow event.

Very interesting, the TPV fujiwara effect. So what does this mean? Well, expect the unexpected. When it moves East eventually, will it shear out ? What will be the effect on confluence be ? More questions than answers.

This wasn't the look I thought we were going to.

REALLY

Northern Delaware included I hope. HM seems annoyed by models today and folks complaining. I am watching that TPV out West. Strange changes today overall.

At hour 30 looks better in the Midwest.

Interesting, even though the talk focuses on areas South of us.

Wow, to that move up !

I know I will be keeping a close look at the movement of the TPV , as HM mentioned this yesterday. The brunt of the arctic cold is out West but changes will most likely occur. Again, I am not searching for record breaking cold here, which may simply bring dry, but a cold running event that punches a little gusto and provides better coverage. .

GEFS agrees. Worse of winter out West.

Yeah, blocking looks to continue, but so far in terms of snowfall, it has done very poorly in delivering the goods to certain areas.

Very difficult to get snow North of Dover this year . Two winter storm warnings and about 4 inches combined. Either WAA dies before it reaches us, or storm development is off to the North or we are not in an area for the best dynamics. Your area has done better. Really thought the baroclinic boundary would deliver. Will it ever, I am not sure. Even next week looks questionable. The 240 hour look does not favor the same areas that have been screwed over and over.

This is rather pathetic . This is looking like a non event here

Yes it is a good thing, a few days ago , maybe longer it was thought the TPV would take up shop in the West, but not any longer. As Anthony mentions it will move about and swing East. This increases the odds for us to achieve colder weather. With the boundary and arctic cold nearby it increases the probabilities for snow as well.

Incredible, further consolidation on a move towards - 6 SD.

Nice trends overnight into this morning. Colder scenario gaining more traction. I like this too Also notice snow cover over the mid center of country expanding South, and fringes around the great Lakes starting to freeze over . Arctic press evolving towards mid month extremes. This is yet again the coldest 10 day mean look yet. Are you kidding me a - 9.4 mean Sources regions getting colder and colder and areas Northeast of the Great Lakes getting colder as well.

Are you 21 years old ?

Scale almost off the chart . Impressive

I myself am still looking for climo redemption.

A GAME CHANGER . Please note todays Euro is even colder and snowier.

Damn good !

Actually I feel based on the HL blocking and the pattern it supports the map. Do I expect it to verify, probably not. Do I expect a snowstorm in the coming pattern, yes I do. Can we get snow on snow, I think so. I mean really if you can't get a snowstorm with the look on top, arctic air mass, boundary, baroclinic zone, multiple disturbances then forget this hobby.