frd

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1876047049285836995 There has been a lot of discussion about the phasing here. In actuality, there are multiple phases occurring - a first phase with a Pacific disturbance around 84-96 hours, and then a second (And potentially third) phase with a more "true" polar disturbance. Extremely complex.

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1876047026221424731 John Homenuk @jhomenuk This evenings GEFS has trended sharply towards a more meridional orientation to vorticity entering the US & a faster ejecting upper low from the Baja Days 4-6. Should this trend continue, chances for a strong Eastern US cyclone next weekend could increase. A very volatile setup.

Give it a couple days

18z Euro goes to 144 , maybe will show new trend or GFS like solution.

GEFS reacting and I believe more changes from the ensembles in the days ahead.

I am fine with even half of that

Full phase unlikely says Homenuk for next weekend, but might be some sort of impact in the East. https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1875955036804825209

Very vigorous system , thunder noted https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875904212544127081 The major snowstorm is taking shape over the Plains as the surface cyclone is quickly developing and deepening — numerous reports of thunder alongside snow & sleet in Kansas so far!

Going to have to be a perfect track to prevent thermal issues. This windown always looked great for a powerful storm, now the question is locking in cold air and the exact track of the low. So many recent systems in past years have not worked due to a combination of coastal huggers, inland runners, poor phases, and other issues. @bluewave has spoken about this in detail the last few years.

Too warm East of the Fall line

Tomer end of the week https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875693350155592045

That would be a typical failure on several fronts. Seems we are going to avoid extreme cold, as the PV getting deflected. https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1875357476503351668

Oh my . Leave early?? Drink a lot of coffee.

Also would this be considered a HA event based on the NAO reversal?

Extreme potential based on deepening. You will like this one for tracking. LETS GO !!

Your theory is holding water so far, with DC near jackpot zone and 48 hours to go. Creep North my friend.

Appears my area ENE from Baltimore benefits as well from the CCB, or at least assuming it is, as it moves East across the Northern areas.

Yet precip more North and NE with heavier amounts, coastal impact? Faster transfer.

Bamm Wx says reload. Webb says warmth is on the way end of the month in the East. Meanwhile over in the NY forum bluewave is talking about why we are not getting typical SECS and MECS.

Would be nice if the storm explodes on the coast and I can get some backlash from the departing low. Your area looks way better than me with only .26 liquid eq.

Gradient over Northern Delware is crazy, from Wilmington, DE to Dover,DE is night and day. 1.7 versus 7.7 Yikes ! Hope the UKIE is wrong for my area.

Any thoughts on the day 10 threat ? The Euro showed a cyclone bomb off the East Coast.

North trend may not be done according to Webb https://x.com/webberweather/status/1874602242336247903?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Color me shocked that this weekend’s storm on the East Coast is trending north on the models… not. Even with suppression/confluence in the mid levels, when your storm is largely being forced by mid-level warm advection & also has no cold high or legit snow pack to the north to squash the baroclinic zone, you’re asking for a last minute northward trend (& these trends probably aren’t done once we get the synoptics settled down). Seen this kind of movie too many times.

This a crazy pattern, I believe that low you mentioned went Cyclone Bombing, dropping 51 mb in 24 hours. Just offshore. Plenty of time for change. Seems to be two threats in the long range near the 11 th and the 15/16 th.

This extended period of cold and snow oppurtunities was discussed today by BAMM WX. Appears that Canada will reload later in the month with additional cross polar flow.