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Some long range models, and forecasters, are calling for a very active and cold mid Feb period, despite a warm up prior to this period. Maybe we do not even get a true warm up, as the East will be the last to moderate.

You are in good company. Tomer Burg@burgwx · 3h There is a legitimate winter weather storm potential to monitor for the East Coast in early February. The large-scale ingredients are there: - Departing antecedent trough suppressing the baroclinic zone and acting as a transient 50/50 low - SW US trough entering the Gulf - Potential north stream trough being transported into the central/southern US downstream of western North American ridging There is still a lot of uncertainty and a suppressed low track is quite possible... but there is a *very* high-end ceiling for a major snowstorm if one does materialize out of these ingredients.

Will prolong the deep arctic mass across a large area of the US and allow for less moderation. Almost a cold feedback cycle.

Nees to be stronger, more snow for the Eastern areas. I want to wish the impossible, an all snow MECS, last time for me was Dec 2009.

Don't see this every day. Days 6 to 10 temps, during this time period is where a powerful low pressure system may effect the deep South and then turn the corner as a MECS. General theme here might be a colder scenario for snow further South and East.

A severe drop in the AO to almost negative 5 SD. Simply incredible. Certainly raises the bar even futher regarding future MECS and severe arctic air effecting the region.

Should be more tracking ahead.

You called it, I am already hyping this up to close friends. All snow this time !

I like this one for the Eastern areas. A one two punch coming up seems a good bet.

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Euro and CFS weeklies show cold indications for 16-30 day based on top-matching upper level analogs, either Feb 2007 (Euro) or Feb 2015 (CFS).

So much for the early Fall worries regarding the extreme - PDO. Also of note is the continued deeper and deeper dive of the AO leading us to next week's bitter arctic invasion.

Snow cover does wonders. Brutal !

Frustrating that despite an extremely cold air mass, CAD and peak climo the Eastern areas will have mixing issues, even far away from the coast. At best just a SECS here, all the main snow action well West, unless the outcome is more 12z AIFS based.

CPC latest ensemble forecast for the AO have it forecasted to go to -4 with a great consensus of members. Meanwhile the NAO is forecasted to go negative at the same time the subtropical jet stream becomes more active. This will lead to an increased probability of a MECS in the time frame of interest, as mentioned by others here. Let's Go !!!

That was the reddish sunrise I have seen in a long time, stunning!

Would love that to continue to coincide with the next Arctic blast after the warm up between the 22nd and 24th. I'm

Any thoughts on the subtropical jet stream becoming more active in early February? Several meteorologists that specialize in the weather patterns of the Pacific have mentioned this might occur.

The upcoming cold is impressive, too bad its dry. Modeling is giving some hints of more active STJ way out in time. Maybe HM's window hits in the very late Jan to Feb 10 th time frame. Tonight Rain likely before 2am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. West wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Saturday A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 19. M.L.King Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

@mattie g will appreciate the above. Moving on to the AO, it looks to make a deeper negative dive. PNA after spiking not really looking too bad, as for the NAO, neutral but would not be surprised if it trends negative late month. Snowfall oppurtunities will be there, however, needing extra patience in a Nina, even if we are about to flip to a Nino soon.

This is common in Ninas, as most already know. A hard hobby tracking snow threats, especially in a Nina.

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

RIP

Nice to see the AO staying negative. - EPO later

A warm day this Friday