frd

Yikes, here we go again.

This is a crazy ring of fire pattern next week, unfortunately it looks like most of the activity will be North of us, very little rain the next 7 to 10 days.

Exactly, for a Nina Dec usually rocks, but this year with the Nino expecting warmer than normal temps. I like mid Jan to mid Feb as well. Have to see what the signs are as we enter late Fall regarding the potential for HL blocking over NA.,and what the source regions look like as well.

Mount Holly weather service has a flood watch here.

What about intervals of - EPO. Also, wonder if I can see a cold Oct/Nov at times due to intense late season West Pac typhoons recurving and its interactions with the EPO domain. Speculation really.

Trending drier and temps in the medium range reflect the increasing warmth, a Sept like last year, ugh.

You think we flip to positive PDO by Jan 15 th ?

This Friday is finally a day at the beach with some surf action. Only concern might be afternoon showers.

Please no more 90 degree heat. I prefer 80, I am pushing aeration back to third week of Sept because of the potential heat.

https://x.com/JimCantore/status/2092170030330900537 Jim Cantore @JimCantore 7h Baking HOT ridge in the southwest and south central USA will flatten and expand east with its HEAT. This should commence over the weekend finally giving the southwest a break to start the new week. Meanwhile the Central USA, the Mid-South and Southeast bake once again as we start September. Some thunderstorm activity will give some a break.

Pumpkin spice Latte time.

Appears drier now.

.35 overnight 4.08 so far in August.

I would speculate - the PDO starting to rise in Sept and continuing to rise at a decent clip in Oct./Nov. A weaker early season PV accompanied by a general cycle trend down with the AO all through the Fall. Above normal North American Snow extent through Sept to Dec. Signs that might indicate -NAO during the winter, I defer to Chuck on this one Watch the East based Nino regions, could overwhelm all 3 above items.

What a complex off the NC coast. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 I am still expecting some sun in the next couple hours in my area.

Maybe we get some sun later based on the visible in the Eastern areas, after that multiple nice days with low dew points.

Cool

Special Marine Warning ANZ630-650-652-680-682-210200- /O.NEW.KAKQ.MA.W.0197.260821T0036Z-260821T0200Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 836 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA... Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 NM... Coastal waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chincoteague VA out 20 NM... Waters from Chincoteague VA to Parramore Island VA from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chintoteague VA from 20 to 60 NM... * Until 1000 PM EDT. * At 835 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts to 40 knots and waterspouts were located along a line extending from 8 nm northwest of Delaware Lightship Buoy 44009 to 11 nm northwest of Chincoteague Bay, moving southeast at 20 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots and waterspouts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * Locations impacted include... Assawoman Bay, Ocean City Inlet, Chincoteague Bay, Chicken Bone, Parking Lot, Assateague Beach, Blackfish Reef, Gulf Rambler Wreck, Ocean City Pier, 10 Nm East Of Ocean City Inlet, Jackspot Reef, Chincoteague, 10 Nm Se Fenwick Island, Bone Wreck, African Queen Wreck, and Fenwick Island. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for southeastern Maryland. Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && LAT...LON 3846 7504 3818 7418 3751 7516 3782 7558 3788 7557 3789 7561 3784 7562 3795 7577 3801 7570 3796 7559 3790 7560 3793 7551 3797 7552 3814 7533 3826 7530 3827 7524 3833 7520 3839 7523 3845 7515 TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 310DEG 19KT 3854 7486 3811 7553 WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.00IN WIND...40KTS $$ BROWN

I just hope the PV is on the weaker side during its formation, as it is beginning to develop right about now. Thinking HL blocking will help us this winter.

.80 here today.