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What do you make of this? Notice a tight range for multiple months. Also of note is a deep - NAO now and a rapidly climbing PNA

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ053-054-527-030400- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0012.000000T0000Z-260803T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 350 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, and portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and Fairfax. * WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Portions of the Baltimore Washington Metropolitan Area have already received a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain today. At least two additional waves of showers and thunderstorms may affect the area through this evening, some of which could train over a single area. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, potentially locally higher, could result in flash flooding of small streams and urbanized areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$

Every week is a Flood Watch, its the new wind thingy. Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 DEZ001-NJZ001-007>010-012>019-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-030900- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0007.260803T0000Z-260804T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex- Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware- Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Camden, Honey Brook, Freehold, Wilmington, New Brunswick, Collegeville, Morrisville, Easton, Chalfont, Perkasie, Washington, Philadelphia, Pennsville, Lansdale, Trenton, Media, Kennett Square, Pottstown, Norristown, Flemington, Cherry Hill, West Chester, Glassboro, Allentown, Morristown, Sandy Hook, Doylestown, Newton, Moorestown, Bethlehem, Oxford, Somerville, Reading, and Mount Holly 220 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas, Camden, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, Warren and Western Monmouth, and Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Berks, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery. * WHEN...From 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area tonight through Monday. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with localized amounts to 3 to 5 inches which could cause flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Guzzo

Tomatoes. eggplants, peppers and squash all doing great so far. I keep pruning the tomatoe suckers and its working out wonderfully. The lawn soil moisture % is very good, but the heat is preventing it from looking better. Last August trended drier as the month went on, I had a 34 % soil moisture near August 1 st and then it steadily declined to about 19 % by Sept 1 st. Maybe this August will be different.

Appears that August is going to take over where July left off.

May not be huge rains, but the signals are there for continued active weather in our area. Even at day 6/7 from the WPC along with machine learning severe threats.

Also, a sneaky cell moving NE, just East over the lower Delaware Bay East of the Milford Neck Wildlife area.

Appears next week out West will experience the peak intensity of the summer ridge, then it will start to decline. I will go out on a limb and say we have seen the last of the 95 plus heat here.

You can almost feel it to a degree with the sun angle, and can see it at night as the sunsets are noticeably earlier.

Well, on a positive note, overnight the WPC increased rainfall totals in the region.

WPC has lowest rainfall totals where the Euro has the highest.

060 FXUS61 KPHI 311012 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 612 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The timing of the late weekend/early next week frontal system has slowed a bit, with Sunday now looking mostly dry and most precipitation coming in Sunday Night into Monday. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall was added for areas along and north/west of the I-95 corridor on Monday. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Tranquil weather takes over through Saturday though a few very isolated sea-breeze showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon. 2. A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will bring the next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Increasing confidence in potential heavy rain on Monday.

Showers North of Philly moving South . Mostly cloudy here. Stubborn clearing with this system

Doesn't look like a late July satellite image, more like early Fall.

Go BIG or go home. I want the biggest WOOF ever...... ALEET ALEET !!!!! BECSS !! I will take my chances with the Nino, because the cards will be on the table at times, but will we get a winning hand between Jan 1 st and March ! st. I hope so.

August temps not looking bad, however, I doubt August delivers the rain here that July has done so far. Soon soil temps will peak and start to fall later in August.

Ordinary storm here dropping about .80 so far. What is not ordinary is the incredible change here this month with active storms and much higher rainfall. I guess some is luck, but the pattern has shifted it seem. Also, machine learning from 15 days ago pointed out several threats which did happen. According to my rain gauge total July rainfall so far has been 6.80 inches. Wow !

The complex of storms including the main line and supercells are pinwheeling around the low pressure area North of us. Could get ugly.

Cells forming ahead of the main line NW of DC.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 420 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026 TORNADO WATCH 529 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-005-290200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0529.260728T2020Z-260729T0200Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX $$

Storms forming and more lightning activitiy to the far WNW. Clearing noted ahead of this area. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=EXTENT3&length=24

The highest totals are within the Flood watch region.

Very sad pics on social media. Total devastation in some areas. .

Here we go again Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 DEZ001-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071- 101>106-280615- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0006.260728T1200Z-260729T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex- Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware- Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Honey Brook, West Chester, Norristown, Lansdale, Jim Thorpe, Wilmington, Easton, Jackson, Sandy Hook, Allentown, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Washington, Philadelphia, Freehold, Pottstown, Moorestown, Reading, Media, Wharton State Forest, Oxford, Morristown, Cherry Hill, Pennsville, Perkasie, Doylestown, Camden, New Brunswick, Stroudsburg, Flemington, Glassboro, Trenton, Collegeville, Somerville, Morrisville, Long Beach Island, Newton, Mount Holly, and Bethlehem 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Northern Delaware, New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania including the Southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley and metro Philadelphia. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will increase over the area Tuesday morning and afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible. Total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches could occur into Tuesday night. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. &&

Yep, at least not as bad as the smoke recently. https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2081719174150443313