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I agree, the h5 is the way to go that far out. Believe the odds might be present for a decent event as you mentioned, or even a higher level event between 1/15 to 1/31. A Winter Storm Warning would be nice.

Minus the squall the cold dry predominates the pattern. Hope to cash in third week and 4th week of January. I like the looks in the HL as the cold should intensify and hopefully meets up with moisture later in the month.

Venture to this thread at your own risk. I am still positive towards mid month and the second half of Jan.

I get it, but December was the coldest December since 2010, had snow showers, snow squall, decent snow event here, measured 4.5 inches. The coldest and snowiest part of the winter may still be ahead.

Complex pattern, more clarity by the weekend. Looking forward to the afternoon EPS.

Just reflecting on the improvement in the PNA region however once the negative EPO arrives I agree we do not want an overly positive PNA. As @CAPE has mentioned we have done well with small to medium events during previous winters which featured a negative EPO pattern. There's no reason to think we cannot take advantage of this time period later in the month for snowfall opportunities. What is also encouraging to know is that the polar vortex is not likely to strengthen significantly and even though the Arctic oscillation is forecast to rise from standard deviations of -3 it will likely head back down again according to the models

General concensus is still up with the PNA as of today's update.

The ECMWF AIFS Ens I heard are doing well. This shows we are back in business by the 15th. GEFS AI at the very bottom.

Wow that was awesome. Winds to at least 35 with crazy snowfall rates. Came in like a freight train. Worth getting up for. Heaviest snow I have seen in a long time.

Same here.

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.

The Pac jet extension is a bit too robust leading to the warm up. There is a ton of heat energy in the Western and SW Pac. The warm up was actually spoken about about 10 days ago, ( although some thought it would not happen since other warm ups have trended less and less over time ) however this time it appears likely it will be warming up ahead of the - EPO/ +TNH pattern. Goes to show you the Pac is King, the current - NAO and the - AO are useless when the Pac does not cooperate.

Oh my

It would be awesome ! I like how all three major ensembles are showing this happening, leading to more confidence going forward.

This period has the best overall potential if you favor powder events with snow on snow. Hopefully this becomes reality in a couple weeks. Maybe we even get a true deep winter feel with both cold and snow. Bring it !

You see a more active Southern stream?

In this day and age, I will gladly take any snowfall and be happy. I am not getting any younger. LOL However snowfall brings the kid out in me.

Digital cocaine. Snort this all day. Miami Vice meets the Cold Miser - happy hour was awesome !!!! Hey this snow porn should not be posted, but the take away is finally the pinks have arrived and the snow reaches SC. A good sign.

Looks nice. The Greenland block is moving WSW by early Jan. As for specifics, just be happy we have a chance to score in the coming weeks.

Tomer Burg @burgwx Very much in alignment here - not sure exactly when things fully kick off but once they do I suspect we'll have at least a 2-3 week window more favorable for moderate-major snowstorms vs. climo. South of NYC is likely more favored than north of NYC given Greenland block climo, but too soon to specifically rule NYC nor anyone else out. 12:21 PM · Dec 28, 2025 · 1,663 Views

Vortex in SE Canada at that point, and goes well with the forecasting of the elongation of the PV near early Jan. Hopefully not as squashed as time moves on. We failed last year, or the year before in a similar fashion. Here is a 3 D vortex image, a bit outdated, but shows it pressing Southward.

Tomer Burg @burgwx · 1h What does this mean for snowstorm prospects in the East Coast? Initially, not much. Notice how we start with the same cold and dry NW flow regime we've been in before. The key is to monitor the upstream evolution, as the Bering Sea block erodes and is likely replaced by a Pacific trough, increasing the chances of western US ridge amplification. The kind of pattern increases the probability of a moderate to major snowstorm vs. climatology in the Mid Atlantic, and potentially southern New England, which would necessitate a well-timed upstream ridge amplification coinciding with downstream confluent flow and a sufficiently cold airmass in the northeast US. While a major snowstorm is never a guarantee, chances of at least one or two in the January 8-25 time frame are higher than average

Tomer stated the following today, " While a major snowstorm is never a guarantee, chances of at least one or two in the January 8-25 time frame are higher than average. "

Tony Pann @TonyPannWBAL Go Time??? I have to admit; the weather alphabet is looking good for the chance at a coastal snowstorm going into the first few weeks of the New Year. +PNA, -EPO, -NAO. Does that mean Baltimore will finally get a Monster Snow for sure? No, of course not. But the table is set. Stay tuned...