frd

Ah, the power of a decimal point

Rather impressive thunderstorm last evening around 12:30 a.m. moving north to south along the western edges of northern Delaware. Received about .75 in of rain.

Latest update NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK SPC AC 261919 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central High Plains. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into North Carolina and southern Appalachians... An upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push southeastward across the Appalachians and into parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms through much of the period. Storms are expected to be ongoing early Tuesday from PA and WV into eastern KY, near a cold front. This activity should persist as it moves into MD/VA/NC, where a surface trough will deepen. Daytime heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few supercells. Despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer shear may support hail in the strongest cells. In addition, southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an isolated tornado risk from southeast VA into NC. Moderately high PWAT along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts. ...Northern High Plains... Instability will increase over eastern WY, western SD/NE and northeast CO during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops. Southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints, with storms forming after 21Z near the higher terrain in WY/CO. South to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms across western NE and northeast CO during the evening with a few severe gusts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/26/2026 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1936Z (3:36PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Exactly, that statement echoes what Mount Holly has in the latest AFD. The boundary may also stall in the Central and Northern regions leading to flash flooding.

WPC's afternoon update below has increased totals again for the Mid Atlantic region. Here is a snippet from the AFD Mount Holly - PWats will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.

Interesting

The rains keep arriving.

I tend to agree, to a certain point, that this December will not be like last December. BammWx thinks a warm December so litle snow. Time will tell.

Sept and October possibly both near to below average.

I can live with that.

1.10 of rain here. So far July has been wet.

Machine learning did well in review, pointing out days well in advance. At least from what I read 7 to 10 days ago.

CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. [1] It measures atmospheric instability. It indicates how much energy is available to fuel rising air currents (updrafts) to create thunderstorms. [1, 2, 3, 4]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026 TORNADO WATCH 507 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC003-220100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0507.260721T1805Z-260722T0100Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE $$

Significant cloud cover to the North, East and West of DC presently. The area of storms in PA really has a crazy outflow as previously mentioned.

The East based Nino folks are not going to agree.

The sun here upon sunrise is a tiny red ball behind a thick milky sky, surreal.

Hmm I dont smell smoke and this image would show the highest smoke density up North still

Ah, its a new world out there.

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2077437310145077290 Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Day 15: Another chance for Central heat rebuild, with maybe some expansion into Texas, as coasts stay mostly relatively cooler.

Temp to 96 now that there is less smoke. Holly cow look at NY state, that is going to drop South.

Wow, that is surreal. Wonder what code that gets? Code orange here today and tomorrow.

WPC increased rainfall total