frd
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Everything posted by frd
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Ring of fire pathway 7 day totals
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Day 4 NSSL machine learning likes a day 4 threat and days 9, 10 and 11 as an active period. https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2076303103263932677 The latest NSSL machine-learning severe probabilities highlight a potential northwest flow setup for a handful of days across the eastern U.S. The risk of some strong to severe storms appears evident at times.
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Max heat begins to move West later this week.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/# ... Friday/Day 6 -- Mid-Atlantic Region ... This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026
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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off KEY MESSAGE 4...Friday could be active and unsettled with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. We are still several days out but we are monitoring the severe weather setup on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted most of the area in a Slight Risk (15% chance of severe thunderstorms 25 miles from any point). Storms look to be driven by a strong cold front swinging in from the northwest and with ample daytime heating and instability, the ingredients are certainly there for strong to severe thunderstorms and damaging wind gusts. In their long term outlook, SPC did mention some small MCS potential during the day 7 to 10 period as some shortwaves are likely to ripple through the northwest flow. Again, still several days out, but we will have to monitor the severe weather potential for the end of the week and possibly next weekend.
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True, that is why I mentioned the area further upstream in PA. Yeah, its a considerable distance from you, but moving on a trajectory to head South and be on the Eastern Shore. Currently that area is warned with a STW and a FFW. ( More than likely that area may dissipate looking at the lastest trends. ) Storms that were headed towards me went poof.
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I hope you get nailed pretty good later. Would be great if the energy /storms near Lancaster, PA settled over you area later this evening.
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Without question storms are certainly firing up. When looking at the hi res radar you can see it perfectly. Pretty cool !
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Interesting boundary from the storms in South Jersey is moving SW through Northern DE into NE MD, causing storms to fire. I just missed one to my South.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ ... Friday/Day 7 and Beyond -- Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic ... Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks. Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off While probability outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML & AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As details on this system become more defined, will have to continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming days.
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Pretty good rainfall here. Mount Holly's forecast already verified in terms of rainfall totals. 1.33 from the slow moving morning storms, however, the highest probs were later in the day. Many folks were suprised by the heavy rains.
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Of course it rained here a bit this AM., when probs were low, now I can't the lawn. Lets see if the flood watch delivers for later. Mount Holly states the highest threat for severe is South of Philly. Large area of cloud cover at this time.
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Mount Holly in my grid has one to three inches of rain tomorrow night
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We will be tired of the blizzards.
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Things were much greener last July. These excessive 100 degree days has stressed a lot of the plants here and the lawns. Recent dew points and exceptional heat has started some blight in tomato plants. The WPC has increased rainfall in the 3 day, 5 day and 7 day outlooks. Not sure its the Nino starting so early, but I will take it. Also, in regards to severe potential, the 10 th and the 15/16 th look interesting on machine learning NSSL https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2074470678669992148 Day-by-day NSSL machine-learning severe probabilities for the next 2 weeks below highlight severe potential lare this week and this weekend into next week with a potential upper-level ridge pattern setting up in the Plains.
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GFS too spotty. WPC is looking good for day three.
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Its a swamp out there. The NW flow pattern seems to be gone.
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True, and should not be dessert dry.
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But,
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https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/2074122821928657134
