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Might get a glimpse into the boreal winter pattern and outcomes during the end of Sept and early October according tho Ben.

The Nina winter of 95-96, as you mentioned was very unusual. We had cold air and coinciding active systems, producing an abundance of snowfall. Not your so called typical Nina by any means. Currently this past decade, and even more so the last 5 years summer blocking has manifested and when the winter months evolve the previous blocking from the summer and Fall diminishes, and even disappears. The last couple winters had the AO and the NAO go weeks on end in the positive phase. Snow advance, overall NH snow cover, and November blocking that some had used to forecast winter blocking ahead never took hold. The various cause have been discussed here. Two years in a row we had record high NH snow cover only to suffer January reversals that were sudden and unrecoverable from. Simply though it appears to evolve around the Hadley cell, the basin wide Pacific warmth, especially in the far SW Pacific, the record setting fast Pac jet, and recently you have to contemplate the strange gyrations of the QBO. Things were never in sync to produce extended cold during the last two winters. I would think unless we achieve some intervals of moderate blocking in the HL and help from the extinct winter - NAO we face serious obstacles in achieving even climo snowfall during the 20-21 winter season.

Data...... . more data ..... somewhere among all these model runs there has to be a fantasy snowstorm

Totally agree. However, a colder than normal winter month will occur here eventually. Whether by volcanic eruption on a massive scale, or a simple serendipitous event.

Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. Eh, whats new.

What ? No way !!!! I don't believe it, unless they hacked Isotherm's formula.

Just pointing out two contributors that might be favorable. But honestly, the correlation is not strong and we are currently out of sync with things that use to work, or could be used in a analog set, or at the least, had exhibited some tendencies to be pro cold for our area versus warm. Challenges continue to mount for useful winter seasonal forecasts.

Speaking of Nina odds. A post by Don S yesterday below. If you are wondering today's SOI is + 22.40 Seems to me a good bet we get some sort of Nina developing by Fall. The one thing that interests me is the backdrop of the solar minimum. And, the eventual outcome of the QBO in Dec . and early winter. < Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010. >

I know I read a couple posts by HM on the QBO behavior during the past 6 months, and even recall some insights as well from Dr Amy Butler. Strange year so far for the QBO for sure. Good luck to those whom want to put out a winter forecast for 20/21. I would say the odds of discovering the correct winter drivers at about 33 %. Those who love the warm train might go climo ( 1990 - 2019 ) + 2 degrees. Those cold and snow weenies better hope for a 95-96 repeat. Sure we can get a cold snow event but difficult to see cold lock in with the same issues re-appearing such as the enhanced fast Pac jet and difficulties in achieving properly timed HL blocking ( or any blocking for that matter) along with the elusive -NAO. Speaking of stratospheric oddities.

@psuhoffman Good points on the post above. Analogs post 2010 have become useless to a degree. And, since 2015 you can probably even reinforce that notion with the Super Nino ( residual ocean warming , etc ) and add to that the recent ocean heat waves taking place. A somewhat newer phenomenon. I see even the great Don Sutherland has added something fitting and new to his weather summaries and look ahead monthly forecasts/stats. PSU , see here ( bolded ) from Don's recent post. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. He is incorporating the new climate warming into his summary, very interesting. For me personally , I see no end to the issues in the Pac this winter that have haunted us the past 3 winters. So many elements in addition to the Pac are negatives for a cold and snowy winter in our part of the world.

And don't forget, that was back in the day when a Nino did what a Nino was suppose to do. In this day and age with global warming the outcomes expected are no longer so simple. Since 2010 there have been noted changes in various mechanisms that would typically deliver cold and snow to the East with a moderate to almost strong El Nino. The use of analogs prior to 2010, to me, prove little value. A blended approach to forecasting the Winter IMHO might be the best way to go. Of course they also need to be tweaked and modified for GW.

HM spoke about this potential yesterday.

Finally last night got hit with a rather prolonged heavy rain event along with a a STW for my area. Seems the outflow boundaries from the storm complex in Se PA spawned new storms to my NW and then these storms , or rather a large complex, dropped Southward. Very impressive rain and wind event. Even post rainfall the winds were very gusty. Rain gauge at home was at 1.75 inches. At least the grass crowns are saved for the next round of heat and will be nice not to have to water for a while.

Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? Total speculation, but wondering if there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends during the summer . And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East. Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts.

Clearing here currently with the early morning storms moving off the Southern NJ coastline. Wind threat appears impressive, even after the any squall line later this afternoon, and the expiration of the wind advisory , gusty winds will continue until later Saturday, combined with temps in the 30's over night. HM chimes in.

Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there.

@psuhoffman hmm saw this and thought of your post yesterday

Something to think about , this does coincide with a period of reduced zonal winds. However ,based on what I am hearing and seeing a true official SSWE is not likely this winter. The vortex is resilient and strong. But as HM mentions, it does have a vacillation cycle near the 20th of the month.

The theme of the little things screwing us continues. Realistically with a look like that in Western Canada you would think the Atlantic might react better in the area near Greenland, instead look at that hot mess. The multi winter + NAO continues. I was reading about the dynamic models versus the statistical models in terms of the HL call for the winter . One model camp sure nailed it. Well, at least so far that is. I still have hope for February. The progression of sensible weather ,not necessarily how we got there, does seem to match Tom's progression nicely. If so, his ideas and the notion we pull back ridging in Feb and get an East Coast trough would spell opportunities for us. In this new day and age of non-analog winters and changing base states I would be happy with just a two week window of very cold and snowy weather. I don't even care if I don't hit average snowfall , give me 50 % of the season in two weeks with cold and wind and make it look like days of old . To me that is a win.

Great update from Don S . Here it is courtesy 33: << posted 24 minutes ago By now, the above normal height anomalies shown on the closing days of the operational ECMWF have likely gained notice. Those height anomalies and the accompanying temperature rebound are well-supported. The 12z GEFS is in good agreement with the 12z operational ECMWF at 240 hours. However, by the end of the GEFS run, the area of above normal height anomalies retrogrades toward western Canada and a trough takes shape in the East. My thinking has been and, at least for now, remains as noted in my nearly daily discussions of the longer-term pattern evolution: During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. Obviously, the situation bears watching. At least for me, I will need to see more evidence that the change is not a temporary period of moderation (highlighted above) during a transition toward a more sustained period of cold. The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight over the next week. If people want something gloomy to consider, January 1-15, 1998 had a mean temperature of 43.3° (2020 was 42.7°) in New York City. February 1998 went on to have a mean temperature of 40.6°. If people want something more appealing to consider, January 1-15, 1907 had a mean temperature of 43.5°. February 1907 had a mean temperature of 25.9° and monthly snowfall of 21.8". >>

Similar to the issues last year at times. Little ROI in hobby land these days, as Bob did the right thing focusing on the cha ching. Maybe in Feb. we score as we hopefully progress to a more traditional Nino-ish pattern along with legitimate threats. If we hit a great two week snow period we can still make up for lost time.

We don't need extreme cold for the favored period as you mention. Maybe arctic air waits for late Feb , seriously. Wonder if we go to a typical Nino pattern in the later stages of the every two week pattern. If we can flood Canada with super frigid air in mid Feb and then deliver it via an improving NAM state maybe it is possible. The ridge pushing West during Feb fits the Nino progression as you mentioned as well. We know during early Feb and on we will have the active STJ . Another time period to note is one that also seems to be on a pattern, and I am referring to the PV vacillation cycle.....( in strong Vortex winters ) ...date of the 20th of the month , as HM posted days ago, ( see last two HM posts ) it has been going on near that date on a regular basis. Wonder if that ties into a significant event for us near Feb 18 th to the 22 nd.

Of note, bluewave mentioned this a while back, we have been lacking a Miller A track and even a Benchmark storm(s) in the winter recently . Folks have scored up North but in some unusual ways. The Pac jet the last two years, in varying ways, has interfered with some of our favored windows/threats for us here in the Northern Mid Atlantic, to what degree is debatable, and you can refer to climo, as it just being par for the course. Some years everything goes right, some not so much.

Whether this matters down the road is debatable , but there does seem to be some indication is a slowing of the zonal winds in the weeks ahead. Not sure how much of that is typical seasonal effects taking hold. ( weakening ) Any one know when the new QBO data arrives ?

Excellent points, goes along what I was thinking about change in general, no one pattern has legs.