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Impressive + NAO and wide ranging warmth across parts of the NH. Meanwhile...........

The 20th of the month has been a colder time for the past several months and this occurs in what some mention as a vacillation of the vortex which according to HM happens in stronger vortex winters. This time of the month coming up may once again have minor interest. The last three times it happened cold ejected Southward but did not time well with moisture. Not sure this time is any different . Speculation on my part maybe the GEFS is wrong and the current NAM state is more hostile than in November, and December and even Jan. So, maybe the cycle does not duplicate near the 20 th. Of note as well is the GFS:

Makes sense, I know Bob pointed out a few days ago how the control seems to regularly spit out snow storms for our area. Just interesting to note. Another cool seasonal repeating phenomenon, and I think this goes back to last winter as well, the under modeled SE ridge and expansive WAR and how storms always seem to trend NW in time and the scarcity, for the most part, of suppressed systems. Repeating theme, 20 % coastal huger, 70 % cutter and at times a suppressed system 10 % . % are estimated on my part. The seasonal models forecasting of an active STJ was correct but the lack of cold and blocking had always guaranteed rain versus snow. Lastly I believe a record sub sonic flight was set this weekend at an average speed of over 800 mph shaving 1 hour and 17 minutes off a flight leaving maybe NYC and going across the pond. That is remarkable, sorry I can not recall the exact departure and arrival locations. Next up is watching the Atlantic Basin ahead of the hurricane season and the East Coast SST profile. Might be an early beach season if Spring is not cold.

Pretty much the same back ground state since late December, meanwhile the research about the warm West Pac and its role on super charging the jet continues, and is making me a believer. Routine records being set for jet speed across the NH while the vortex remains coupled and strong. No way to weaken it in the background state we are in. March looks less hopeful now, and I feel it averages 1 to 2 degrees above normal . Also, learned during this winter not to trust at all the GEFS when it comes to vortex weakening, and the CFS is totally unreliable and useless. Also, many false hopes could have been avoided if the new GFS was not rushed into action, as it still had a very serious issue with temps and because of that false hope digital snow forecasts galore. Plus, the Euro Control portrays snowfall a few times this winter in the Northern Mid Atlantic when it was not supported by its ensembles or the OP.

And last winter as well. Also, the cold / dry and then warm / wet seems to be resonating as well. I do believe it is a pattern that produces this repeating cycle for us. Looking at the AO it takes a dive from +5, but down only to around +1 and then back up again. Models last week with a weakening and then re-strengthening seem to be correct so far. Meanwhile what a slap in the face.

Very insightful and totally agree. I plan to read and do some learning during the summer regarding the drivers that Tom follows. I believe you said you might do so as well. During the later part of 2020 we will have a firmly established - QBO at all levels, if not sooner . Looking forward to seeing some better results in the NAO domain during the next couple years. If you want another area/topic to read then this one sounds interesting from Anthony . I imagine we really need to focus once again on the IO. and this

A possible March look ahead based on two winters, Feb 1949 and Feb. 1990 which in a few ways look similar to this month so far, and then what followed in March in those two years.

Ha ha that sounds Isotherm-ish ...... but yeah makes perfect sense. The lag effect and all. In regards to your mention of the warm oceans I know HM posted some very interesting info on the ocean temps and SST profile near Aussie along with the +IOD. Hopefully that look changes by next year, as Anthony believes it effected everything downstream and the jet as well. I feel the -NAO makes a winter return in a big way either next year or the year after.

In a hierarchy, of course the AO is near , or at the the top.

That could be true, I feel they do at least have a role in reinforcing the WAR. Warmer SSTs in that area during the late summer and early Fall certainly extend warmth in the coastal plain. Many new warmth records have been are set from DC South in the late Fall, ( the last 10 years ) bluewave even spoke about this last October and November. The records set mimic the orientation of the offshore warmer SSTs extending all the way down to Florida.

The time period mentioned by HM, however, timing is off for maximum effect, and as you stated, it recovers and remains very strong. No signs at all of any meaningful weakening or changes in the NAM state. Meanwhile you still have the fast Pac jet and under modeled WAR. Cutters continue and the basic repeating theme since last winter continues. Ocean temps rather warm for this time of year in the Western Atlantic as well.

Very true. You could simply forecast the winter here based on the AO and the PNA. and the NAO as well. The AO being the most important in the middle of the winter, the +PNA in the beginning and the - NAO late in the winter in terms of snowfalls. .Although the AO is king on a broad brush view among the 3 I mentioned. . None of these indices have been or look to go into a favorable phase for us here in the Northern Mid Atlantic any time soon. If you look at the indices they can tell you in a simple manner whether other players and drivers are lining up for us to get snowfall opportunities and the cold to go with it. They even have a hand in storm tracks and if you notice we have been getting unfavorable tracks, to a degree similar to last winter, and when a track is a little better cold air is lacking . I also believe the poor indices lend support for not believing what the models show in the long range when it comes to snowfall potential. Don't believe long range threats will materialize in a backdrop of poor support from the various mentioned indices above. And so far this is true, all threats have fizzled. This follows along as well with the importance of a AO from Don Sutherland below. Very eye opening. But, I am sure we here all recognize the importance of the AO. From Don S. < The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015): Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week. The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas. Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea. >>>

Sorry my post is not a positive one, but it still belongs in the long range. You have an issue no doubt, learn to accept the good and the bad. Or not, at least have some common courtesy.

I actually believe the weeklies might be correct based on the current background state we are in. We all know beyond week two it is speculation, but hey why not, what is really going to change to turn the lower latitudes cold and snowy in the East. Nothing I can think of. Maybe a fluke March event. Losing confidence that even March delivers a decent period.

The trend continues this afternoon with the AO forecast going up to extreme levels. The OP targets + 7 and the EPS targets over + 6. Remarkable. And don't look for the PNA to help, as it dives negative. The AO may drop back down mid month but not sure the improvement, if you want to call it that, is simply a temporary cycle down until it goes back up later in the month. I don't see any real improvement in the NAM state any time soon. Maybe in early March on a meaningful and sustained level. If the AO correlation holds for Feb., then any snow opportunities in our area will be limited, and as for significant events ( greater than 6 inches ) are off the table all together. Keep in mind as well, any snow events that do show up in the long range or medium range always seem to trend to either coastal huger, cutter or far South and sheared. This has been going on since last winter.

= I believe anything above a + 5 SD AO in Feb. has only happened five times since 1950 , this run may break +5 and even get close to + 6. There has never been a snowfall in Philly or Southward greater than 6 inches I believe in a regime such as this, at least according to Don S. in a recent update he posted. We all know that as the wave lengths shorten in late Feb we can get more significant snowfalls across the region, but we have a month to go to get there. On a side note, just checked out some coastal SST and is is very warm along the Atlantic surf zone for this time of the year. Some Feb periods have had readings of 35 to 36 degrees F., right now some locals are are at 46 to 49 degrees F. warmer further South. Lack of continuous NW winds, cold air masses, plus less coastal storms might be the reasons.

Yep, anomalies we are looking at , but still, it is remarkable the extent of above average air masses.

How about a Nina next winter ........ Very unwise to talk about such things a year in advance, but I guess it is one option. Not even going to speculate about the implications, unless we get hit with mega clippers and Manitoba Maulers. Some mets are going with another Nino next winter, first I heard about a Nina. However, look at the model that is going in that the direction, the CFSv2, ha ha, that model has hardly any skill at all. It can not predict anything with even remote accuracy. Even at the door step of a new month it crumbles in regards to temps. More interesting to ponder this than look at the current AO progs.

Sometimes what Bob does is smart, step away. I am OK, in the last couple years I no longer get very upset with warm weather in the winter. I still feel we get opportunities in March.

Hmm... Just like warms Decembers after the 20th recently, why not another attempt at 80 degrees in Feb. Total speculation of course. The AO is going way high and if the major MJO event hits the right phase maybe we challenge a couple records.

OMG, I hope I am not that nutty. But, you get the point. I am sure my numbers were low :-)

Lol I wasnt attacking you. I actually learn alot from you but weve had one snowstorm since 2016 so I am not sure what's worked out. What you usually present is far fetched scenarios that go agsinst models so it's an uphill battle...hence my statement about one day you will beat the models Please move to banter if better there, but the point of this is the back ground state, our climo, and how you achieve long term seasonal snowfall is important to consider. I believe and know there have been periods like this before, where it would not snow. Or, better to say, yearly snowfall totals were very low. Like the 90's maybe. However, there has been changes and no denying the base state seems to be warming, psu hits that topic nicely. showme puts a lot of time and effort into his wrap ups, I love them. I just simply feel the last three years has been extra tough because of changing factors which guide and play a hand in the winter weather around here, and in the NH as well. You can make the point that ever since 2016 ( minus the Blizzard ) whatever can go wrong will go wrong in terms of cold and snow . ( except March 2018 ) Lets see over the course of three years I have seen a 6 inch EPS snow mean in our area not even deliver. Seen the GFS predict 4 days in a row a massive snowstorm, which folks believed even though there was no Euro support. Guess what, no snow. Seen the Icon fail 123 times Seen the CMC fail 178 times Seen the new GFS predict the Day after tomorrow scenario with a frozen wasteland into the summer, about 50 times , all I got was flies, sunburn and chapped lips. Record Fast Pac jet al over the NH. Fog , fog and more fog and lots of dew in the winters....and hey there was fog but no snow Record low min all the time it seems Seen the 46 Day snowfall from the Euro and what happened should be discontinued worthless Judah calling for a - AO, ah forget about it Seen many frustrated seasonal forecasters the last two years But, if we did not have this hobby and did not always seek the answers about the weather in the long range everything I listed above I would not even know about. I would get home from work and look on the TV, my cell or on my laptop at my local forecast and see what the weather would be. A two way street, great to watch the future for a chance to know first hand before anyone else a blizzard or MECS is coming, but also on the flip side, knowing that the next 30 days might be crap and having to deal with knowing that and how to get past that disappointment. Hence the Panic room and the emotional swings.

I mean there is some data that points to a temporary weakening of the vortex, add whatever lag effect there is and you get to the date in question. Still hard to believe, but like you said, there is a chance.

If we can establish some glaciers in the deep South might help our chances up this way. I'm in.

The move into phase 6 on some models despite a growing sub seasonal signal in the central Pac. , which is interesting . Not sure what Ventrice is alluding to with his idea of a very strong MJO event developing later in Feb. Of course he did not state where that phase might target. On a side note, not liking the possible new trend regarding the AO. Last couple days seems more consensus on it going higher versus previously was more neutral. Some models give the vortex a hit soon, but it recovers shortly thereafter. Maybe that is being reflected in the numbers, although the time frame does not really match.