frd

Dew points creeping up 64 F here.

That G might pop into a O

Three minute downpour here.

Temps

Interesting 6 to 10 day outlook. Not a real surprise though.

The rainfall distribution is rather blotchy

Interesting looking at the East Coast surf zone temps compared to 2024 and also reviewing the Atlantic basin as a whole. The Atlantic is near 2 degrees F cooler than last year on this date, lesser hurricanes activity is a possible outcome, however, the near shore water temps actually are somewhat above 2024 at this time. Beach season may arrive earlier this year.

These would be excellent offshore surfing winds in a couple months, granted not as strong though. current surf conditions are: Surf easing for PM hours with breezy offshores knocking down the surf We have plenty of rideable lines sticking around the knee to thigh high zone early PM with standouts in south Ocean County consistently hitting waist high. Winds are breezy WNW-NW so conditions are clean, but looking racy/challenging on the low tide early PM. Swell drops out through the PM with winds shifting more NW over the afternoon/evening hours so bring a longboard that can get you into the small surf through the stiff offshore breezes.

Dew point 29 , nice.

Next cool air delivery after tomorrow might be near May 3 rd to May 6 th, somewhat related to the SSWE that took place weeks ago.

Dew point dropping quick, down to 39, meanwhile winds gusting to 35 mph.

Crazy storm across Assawomen wildlife area on the Delmarva. Two special marine warnings

That was the heaviest rain in a long while, even though it did not last that long. Very welcomed !

Can nicely see the line forming to the NW on the GOES-19 - Sector view: Northeast - GeoColor

Storms picking up in intensity West of Baltimore. Some peaks of sun here, models depicted that yesterday, which may up the rainfall odds later.

Intense cell near Hagerstown moving SE but I imagine then start to pivot more East.

Wonder if we get that broken line later ? Seems the odds may have decreased, not sure. Radar at this time has some storms in Western PA., West VA. Clouds are zipping by West to East.

Areas all around you got .05. You were lucky Pathetic here .06

Next mid-week looking warmer and warmer. Meanwhile soil moisture going poof. The biggest item of note, is the persistence of forecast temps warming into the low to mid 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday. While the guidance has come down from its earlier peak towards the mid to upper 80`s, there still is a 30-40% chance of seeing temps above 85 for southern NJ and DelMarVa on Wednesday based on NBM probs.

Day 6 to 10 warmer than normal over a wide area of the country, and drier than normal. Meanwhile, soil moisture never really recovered many plants are stressed already, and the ground is rather hard and dry in our area.

Seems that some plants are having a hard time exiting dormancy, my crepe myrtle , and other plants have some areas that look dead, stress from last Fall and the dry conditions possibly. Many areas to my West did not share in decent rains recently, and with the warm temps and windy conditions things have dried up quickly.

We have set some records in the wind department, and clouds have ruled the last 35 days. Nationwide winds have been impressive.

Mount Holly mentioned this area a little while ago. Stated modeling did not do a good job with this feature. Appears to be holding together on its way East.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few changes with this update. An MCS tracking through Pennsylvania has held its own as it rides the MD/PA border approaching Hagerstown. CAM guidance has been pretty awful handling this feature, but with a tongue of good DCAPE out ahead of it, there is a chance that this MCS could make it to our area or at the very least produce some showers. Added some 15-20% chance of showers/thunderstorms for portions of SE PA, northern DE, and southern NJ. Timing this out, the MCS would get into our SE zones just after 11 PM and into NJ around midnight. Also seeing some convective cells in far northern NJ, but these should move out shortly. SPC added the area ahead of the MCS into a Marginal Risk.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the next best chance for rain. Weekends recently have been on the wet side, if not wet, then clouds have ruled. Mount Holly AFD Next system begins approaching from the west Thursday night, but only a slight chance of showers currently expected. Lows mostly 50s. Chance of showers continues to slowly increase Friday on southwesterly flow ahead of the next system. Still warm, but clouds and any showers may hold temps back, with highs mainly mid 70s, 60s Poconos and coast. Front looks like it stalls in the vicinity with a relatively high chance of showers Friday night thru Saturday, but just chance pops still. Lows 50s, highs low 70s.