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Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Euro and CFS weeklies show cold indications for 16-30 day based on top-matching upper level analogs, either Feb 2007 (Euro) or Feb 2015 (CFS).

So much for the early Fall worries regarding the extreme - PDO. Also of note is the continued deeper and deeper dive of the AO leading us to next week's bitter arctic invasion.

Snow cover does wonders. Brutal !

Frustrating that despite an extremely cold air mass, CAD and peak climo the Eastern areas will have mixing issues, even far away from the coast. At best just a SECS here, all the main snow action well West, unless the outcome is more 12z AIFS based.

CPC latest ensemble forecast for the AO have it forecasted to go to -4 with a great consensus of members. Meanwhile the NAO is forecasted to go negative at the same time the subtropical jet stream becomes more active. This will lead to an increased probability of a MECS in the time frame of interest, as mentioned by others here. Let's Go !!!

That was the reddish sunrise I have seen in a long time, stunning!

Would love that to continue to coincide with the next Arctic blast after the warm up between the 22nd and 24th. I'm

Any thoughts on the subtropical jet stream becoming more active in early February? Several meteorologists that specialize in the weather patterns of the Pacific have mentioned this might occur.

The upcoming cold is impressive, too bad its dry. Modeling is giving some hints of more active STJ way out in time. Maybe HM's window hits in the very late Jan to Feb 10 th time frame. Tonight Rain likely before 2am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. West wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Saturday A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 19. M.L.King Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

@mattie g will appreciate the above. Moving on to the AO, it looks to make a deeper negative dive. PNA after spiking not really looking too bad, as for the NAO, neutral but would not be surprised if it trends negative late month. Snowfall oppurtunities will be there, however, needing extra patience in a Nina, even if we are about to flip to a Nino soon.

This is common in Ninas, as most already know. A hard hobby tracking snow threats, especially in a Nina.

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

RIP

Nice to see the AO staying negative. - EPO later

A warm day this Friday

The ^ is near the time of the elongated PV. moving SE towards Hudson Bay.

LOL

Canada really warms up end of the week due to the jet extension. Some anomalies there over 30 degrees above normal.

Warm wet, cold dry. We need the rain though.

A rollercoaster of highs and lows.

I agree, the h5 is the way to go that far out. Believe the odds might be present for a decent event as you mentioned, or even a higher level event between 1/15 to 1/31. A Winter Storm Warning would be nice.

Minus the squall the cold dry predominates the pattern. Hope to cash in third week and 4th week of January. I like the looks in the HL as the cold should intensify and hopefully meets up with moisture later in the month.

Venture to this thread at your own risk. I am still positive towards mid month and the second half of Jan.

I get it, but December was the coldest December since 2010, had snow showers, snow squall, decent snow event here, measured 4.5 inches. The coldest and snowiest part of the winter may still be ahead.