frd

Crack

This might be the March that delivers. Will have a better idea of that in a couple weeks. OMG to last time in 2018 , wow !!!

Interesting happenings as you are aware way up top with the strat warming causing more pressure on the AO going forward. I read this will also manifest in Greenland blocking, almost re-cycles through the runs into late Feb. We just need for things to go right for us. I am almost tempted to think that mid to late Feb could feature another severe arctic outbreak and powerful cyclone in the East.

Would be ironic if there is a huge storm and its rain after 4 weeks of relentless cold. Seen that outcome here over the past decades a few times. Thr block can be your best friend or worst enemy.

As you stated, signs of some STJ in this period possibly.

Just too much blocking across the top, sounds like even mid-month when things change out West we might have issues, but there is some optimism. Tomer Burg @burgwx This is as ripe as weather patterns get for persistent cold and low-latitude snow in the eastern US. Not only is there a western North American ridge, which drives northerly flow advecting frigid air from Canada south into the US, but there is a broad region of high-latitude blocking with a zonally (west-east) oriented corridor of below normal heights. This kind of pattern is more favorable for significantly suppressing the low track to the south and preventing cyclones from cutting too far north, as opposed to -NAO episodes where the negative height anomalies to the south are smaller in scale with a mean trough axis east of the East US. Tomer Burg @burgwx · 2h As we head into mid-February, we'll see the pattern starting to change as the North Pacific troughing that's been locked in place and driving the western North American ridge breaks down. This will support troughing in the West Coast - perhaps finally breaking the prolonged Rockies snow drought - but what happens farther to the east is a big wild card. Typically, western US troughs mean eastern US ridging - but with strong Greenland blocking persisting with lingering antecedent airmass, the large-scale pattern may favor another cross-county winter storm if this signal persists and subtropical Pacific moisture advected into the US overruns an already suppressed baroclinic zone over the eastern half of the US.

Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx Tracking next North Pacific stratospheric warming suggests another Alaska ridge spike chance by middle February, similar to what just happened.

Weakening vortex

I am getting older by the day

PV destruction = self sustaining - NAO = Davis Strait blocking = cold and in time.

Just cold, nothing to get hyped about on the snow front. Maybe after this period there might be something.

NAO is dropping at that time, as the NAO block starts to rebuild then forecast to retrograde Westward.

Soooo many things need to go right to get snow here, even when you have the coldest airmass in the Northern hemisphere centered over the Eastern US. Maybe once we get closer to Feb 10 th to the 13 th we have a chance at undercutting energy entering the West Coast, or maybe not. At least we got one decent storm, got to use the snowblower.

Mike Thomas@MikeTFox5 · 9h For those asking about a warm up...this is a tricky question as well. Strong & relentless stratospheric warming ongoing and expected to remain up near the polar region right through the first half of February, which will likely continue polar blocking and keep cold temps coming our way through at least the middle of the month. AI models offer some home with the western ridge breaking down beyond next weekend, allowing more zonal (west-to-east) pacific flow and allowing temps to soften. AI guidance suggest middle 40s possible around this time...but a lot of the other ensembles do not agree. Many are keeping 40s away until we get beyond the midpoint of the new month. That seems a little extreme in my opinion though...I think it's somewhere in between. Think we probably crack the 40°F mark the week of 2/8 but I'm not seeing anything that screams sustained above normal temperatures anytime soon.

Wow, I would go a winter without any snow just to experience this the following winter, assuming this forecast becomes reality. RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 NCZ015>017-031-032-102-VAZ095>098-100-524-525-300600- /O.EXT.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.260131T0600Z-260202T0000Z/ Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Northampton-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- 141 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast North Carolina and eastern and southeast Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong winds could cause tree damage. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

Make it on the 4 th

The cold has been very impressive, even more so with the snow cover, such a deep winter scene that has lasted days. Yet, it seems that snowfall has not met expectations, at least in my book. Certainly the cold is not done yet, and the AO domain remains blocky with yet another PV weakening. Thinking the best overall time period for additional snowfall here is from Feb 6 th to the 28 th, after that there are signs that blocking eases, wavelenghts change and the cold may weaken.

Next year is a Nino most likely, but the QBO will be the opposite direction. However, I still like the idea of increased blocking.

These guys wrote the revenge code for the GFS.