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frd

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  1. frd
    I hope machine learning ( which is very bullish) regarding severe weather is somewhat accurate. See below: Upper level ridging is expected to build overhead on Thursday, with several models also showing a shortwave disturbance passing through the top of the ridge. How this disturbance evolves will have a large impact on our forecast locally. If the disturbance passes through early in the day, we could have large scale subsidence and relatively low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. If it were to approach at peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large impact on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the forecast details on Thursday is lower than normal. What models are in good agreement about, is that the background environment will be highly unstable (CAPE values likely in excess of 3000 J/kg). There will also be enough dry air in the mid-levels to support strong downdrafts (DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg), and just enough shear (around 20 kt) to give storms some weak organization. Such an environmental setup is common in many of our more impactful summer severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there appears to be a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. That threat for severe thunderstorms may continue on Friday as a shortwave disturbance passes to our northwest through the Great Lakes causing the upper ridge to break down and a surface cold front to approach from the northwest. With greater synoptic scale forcing, confidence in the occurrence of storms is higher on Friday, but instability might be slightly lesser. Machine learning guidance is very bullish on the severe thunderstorms threat for both Thursday and Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming days.
  2. frd
    Later this week, and next week appears to get more active as the general pattern begins to change. Increasing chances of storms every couple days once we get to this Wednesday.
  3. frd
    Huge dive in the SOI Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -14.14 -6.04 31 May 2026 1013.79 1014.20 -14.84 -13.58 -5.64 30 May 2026 1012.24 1014.15 -26.33 -13.17 -5.29 29 May 2026 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46 -12.63 -4.77
  4. frd
    Clouds dropping SE
  5. frd
    Southern portion of the line appears to be weakening.
  6. frd
    That would be a bummer. Dew point creeping up here to 60. Have not looked at the severe paramenters though for later.
  7. frd
    Rather strong complex
  8. frd
    Might sneak into my area. Fingers crossed.
  9. frd
    Philly news tonight with voluntary restrictions in certain areas.
  10. frd
    F ing Omen title. Has brought nothing but bad luck, bad timing and zero rain.
  11. frd
    We are cooked
  12. frd
    Accuweather disagrees with multi days of clouds and rain https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/middletown/19709/10-day-weather-forecast/2218503?page={page} The Weather Channel has mid to at times upper 80's Wed 10 84° / 63° Mostly Sunny Thu 11 88° / 68° Partly Cloudy Fri 12 89° / 68° Partly Sunny Sat 13 87° / 66° Partly Cloudy Sun 14 86° / 69° Partly Cloudy Mon 15 86° / 69° Partly Cloudy Tue 16 86° / 69° Partly Cloudy Wed 17 83° / 67° Mostly Sunny Mount Holly only goes to next Weds. Not nearly as warm as the Weather Channel Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
  13. frd
    Warmest weather relative to seasonal averages in June and early July, then we trend down in later July and August. Wishful thinking, or possible outcome with the El Nino coupling faster than expected.
  14. frd
    Looking beyond days 8 to 14
  15. frd
    I even take normal.
  16. frd
    https://x.com/webberweather/status/2061163954496237618 Eric Webb @webberweather This is probably the biggest Pacific Jet extension I’ve ever seen in June & it isn’t surprising to see as we discussed several days ago. Buckle up… Eric Webb @webberweather All the ingredients are there for a gigantic Pacific Jet extension later in week 2 & 3, which should lead to a more favorable pattern for tornadoes by mid-June: Kara Sea ridge >> East Asia cold shot Mei-Yu front south of Japan Pacific MJO event Developing Super El Niño
  17. frd
    More active pattern as we near mid-June possibly.
  18. frd
  19. frd
    Have to bag mine. It's very tall 6 inches. Might even have some dollar spot. Been so moist and cloudy. Will cut it tomorrow as the soil should be firmer and dew point even lower.
  20. frd
    Crazy Omega block. Canadian wildlife potential, but nice here, can't wait !
  21. frd
  22. frd
    crazy waves https://northwildwood.com/north-wildwood-surf-cams/
  23. frd

    Drought

    frd replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic

  24. frd
  25. frd
    Any thoughts about June turning the corner with more rainfall via the WAR.
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