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Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 39m Hope you're adjusting to the extreme cold this weekend. Not much good news. It will be COLDER next weekend for locations that get heavy snowfall in the next 48-hours. The snow won't melt but act to enhance radiational cooling at night with calm winds and high pressure.

West based Greenland blocking might be in play due to the strat background state taking place during this time period. Would love to get a Manitoba Mauler to pop off NC and explode and do a loop de loop off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Been waiting decades.

This lines up with the mid Feb period of interest, give or take a few days. Heinrich Leopold @LeopoldHeinrich Arctic temps recovered +6C from a steep -25C fall. I am expecting a steep rise, which will trigger the next cold wave in February. This is confirmed by zonal winds falling until Feb. #natgas

No signs at all that the AO will return to positive any time soon, while another significant drop in the AO may occur in mid Feb. Deep winter locked in!

Looks like more - NAO in Feb. Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx MJO could make move toward warmer mid-late December route (orange line below) or it could continue its pathway favored by subseasonal models (blue line). Meanwhile, stratospheric warming in North Atlantic should favor more -NAO blocking for February.

Chris Martz@ChrisMartzWX ·7h Folks, I don’t hype anything. But what’s coming down the pike this week is REAL DEAL cold. After our fancy winter storm exits, blob after blob of Arctic air associated with the tropospheric polar vortex will rotate through the Lower 48. Subzero wind chills will reach the Gulf Coast. Single digit temperatures can be expected in northern Louisiana and Mississippi on both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Washington, D.C. may not get above freezing for the next 7-10 days. For perspective, the last time D.C. spent a week in subfreezing temperatures was from December 16 to 25, 1989 (10 days). That was 36 years ago. It has happened only 17 times since 1872, and only two of those stretches have been in the last 85 years. Bundle up, kiddos.

Some long range models, and forecasters, are calling for a very active and cold mid Feb period, despite a warm up prior to this period. Maybe we do not even get a true warm up, as the East will be the last to moderate.

You are in good company. Tomer Burg@burgwx · 3h There is a legitimate winter weather storm potential to monitor for the East Coast in early February. The large-scale ingredients are there: - Departing antecedent trough suppressing the baroclinic zone and acting as a transient 50/50 low - SW US trough entering the Gulf - Potential north stream trough being transported into the central/southern US downstream of western North American ridging There is still a lot of uncertainty and a suppressed low track is quite possible... but there is a *very* high-end ceiling for a major snowstorm if one does materialize out of these ingredients.

Will prolong the deep arctic mass across a large area of the US and allow for less moderation. Almost a cold feedback cycle.

Nees to be stronger, more snow for the Eastern areas. I want to wish the impossible, an all snow MECS, last time for me was Dec 2009.

Don't see this every day. Days 6 to 10 temps, during this time period is where a powerful low pressure system may effect the deep South and then turn the corner as a MECS. General theme here might be a colder scenario for snow further South and East.

A severe drop in the AO to almost negative 5 SD. Simply incredible. Certainly raises the bar even futher regarding future MECS and severe arctic air effecting the region.

Should be more tracking ahead.

You called it, I am already hyping this up to close friends. All snow this time !

I like this one for the Eastern areas. A one two punch coming up seems a good bet.

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Euro and CFS weeklies show cold indications for 16-30 day based on top-matching upper level analogs, either Feb 2007 (Euro) or Feb 2015 (CFS).

So much for the early Fall worries regarding the extreme - PDO. Also of note is the continued deeper and deeper dive of the AO leading us to next week's bitter arctic invasion.

Snow cover does wonders. Brutal !

Frustrating that despite an extremely cold air mass, CAD and peak climo the Eastern areas will have mixing issues, even far away from the coast. At best just a SECS here, all the main snow action well West, unless the outcome is more 12z AIFS based.

CPC latest ensemble forecast for the AO have it forecasted to go to -4 with a great consensus of members. Meanwhile the NAO is forecasted to go negative at the same time the subtropical jet stream becomes more active. This will lead to an increased probability of a MECS in the time frame of interest, as mentioned by others here. Let's Go !!!

That was the reddish sunrise I have seen in a long time, stunning!

Would love that to continue to coincide with the next Arctic blast after the warm up between the 22nd and 24th. I'm

Any thoughts on the subtropical jet stream becoming more active in early February? Several meteorologists that specialize in the weather patterns of the Pacific have mentioned this might occur.

The upcoming cold is impressive, too bad its dry. Modeling is giving some hints of more active STJ way out in time. Maybe HM's window hits in the very late Jan to Feb 10 th time frame. Tonight Rain likely before 2am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. West wind around 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Saturday A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 19. M.L.King Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.