frd

You really can not use the operational GFS in a long range thread. Maybe it is experiencing a fall out in verification scores, but using it at long lead times without ensemble support and worse factoring the Op without other model input at long leads is futile. Best used as a low percentage input in a mix of other models such as the ECM ensembles, CMC, EPS, etc. and AI models. That is why even when it shows a snowstorm for many runs in a row it is still likely incorrect or vica versa as well.

Weak sauce here as well, no snow showers last night or squalls, no extreme wind gusts so far, maybe a gust to 38 to 44 mph. All in all a typical deep winter day. The most impressive thing is the snow cover that remains, starting the third week of snow cover tomorrow, have not seen the grass in a couple weeks.

Some changes in the longrange AO. Not going as positive.

Hodhodata@statistics@Statisticizer · 16h #USA Outlook | 5–14 March (Synoptic Focus) The composite analyses for early–mid March depict a strongly amplified hemispheric pattern, with persistent negative 500-mb height anomalies spanning much of the central and eastern United States, and a pronounced long-wave trough anchored over the continent. This configuration is highly efficient at tapping Arctic air and driving southward cold-air advection well beyond typical late-winter latitudes. The evolution and depth of the trough, combined with a strengthened polar jet and downstream blocking signals, closely resemble classic setups associated with major Northwest and Great Plains blizzard episodes. While the exact placement of surface cyclogenesis will govern snowfall distribution, the synoptic backdrop favors one or more significant cold blasts, potentially accompanied by strong winds and wintry precipitation where moisture and lift overlap. As the pattern progresses, attention shifts to possible secondary reinforcements of cold into the central and eastern U.S., with spillover risks toward the Southwest depending on trough phasing and ridge response upstream. Overall, the signal points to high-impact, episodic cold intrusions rather than a quiet transition into spring, warranting close monitoring as March unfold

AO and NAO are way less negative

Absolutely not.

Pretty and Cold enough! Trending better.

I approve of this and this time period does have potential .

Didn't an event similar to what might be coming up happen during the winter of 14 15 or 13 14. A very robust cold front went through with a period of snow squalls that left about an inch or two of snow in a extremely short period of time.

The - AO on the rise. Have to see late month's reaction to the strat. Its been a crazy ride so far.

Crack

This might be the March that delivers. Will have a better idea of that in a couple weeks. OMG to last time in 2018 , wow !!!

Interesting happenings as you are aware way up top with the strat warming causing more pressure on the AO going forward. I read this will also manifest in Greenland blocking, almost re-cycles through the runs into late Feb. We just need for things to go right for us. I am almost tempted to think that mid to late Feb could feature another severe arctic outbreak and powerful cyclone in the East.

Would be ironic if there is a huge storm and its rain after 4 weeks of relentless cold. Seen that outcome here over the past decades a few times. Thr block can be your best friend or worst enemy.

As you stated, signs of some STJ in this period possibly.

Just too much blocking across the top, sounds like even mid-month when things change out West we might have issues, but there is some optimism. Tomer Burg @burgwx This is as ripe as weather patterns get for persistent cold and low-latitude snow in the eastern US. Not only is there a western North American ridge, which drives northerly flow advecting frigid air from Canada south into the US, but there is a broad region of high-latitude blocking with a zonally (west-east) oriented corridor of below normal heights. This kind of pattern is more favorable for significantly suppressing the low track to the south and preventing cyclones from cutting too far north, as opposed to -NAO episodes where the negative height anomalies to the south are smaller in scale with a mean trough axis east of the East US. Tomer Burg @burgwx · 2h As we head into mid-February, we'll see the pattern starting to change as the North Pacific troughing that's been locked in place and driving the western North American ridge breaks down. This will support troughing in the West Coast - perhaps finally breaking the prolonged Rockies snow drought - but what happens farther to the east is a big wild card. Typically, western US troughs mean eastern US ridging - but with strong Greenland blocking persisting with lingering antecedent airmass, the large-scale pattern may favor another cross-county winter storm if this signal persists and subtropical Pacific moisture advected into the US overruns an already suppressed baroclinic zone over the eastern half of the US.

Commodity Wx Group@commoditywx Tracking next North Pacific stratospheric warming suggests another Alaska ridge spike chance by middle February, similar to what just happened.

Weakening vortex

I am getting older by the day