frd

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.

RIP

Nice to see the AO staying negative. - EPO later

A warm day this Friday

The ^ is near the time of the elongated PV. moving SE towards Hudson Bay.

LOL

Canada really warms up end of the week due to the jet extension. Some anomalies there over 30 degrees above normal.

Warm wet, cold dry. We need the rain though.

A rollercoaster of highs and lows.

I agree, the h5 is the way to go that far out. Believe the odds might be present for a decent event as you mentioned, or even a higher level event between 1/15 to 1/31. A Winter Storm Warning would be nice.

Minus the squall the cold dry predominates the pattern. Hope to cash in third week and 4th week of January. I like the looks in the HL as the cold should intensify and hopefully meets up with moisture later in the month.

Venture to this thread at your own risk. I am still positive towards mid month and the second half of Jan.

I get it, but December was the coldest December since 2010, had snow showers, snow squall, decent snow event here, measured 4.5 inches. The coldest and snowiest part of the winter may still be ahead.

Complex pattern, more clarity by the weekend. Looking forward to the afternoon EPS.

Just reflecting on the improvement in the PNA region however once the negative EPO arrives I agree we do not want an overly positive PNA. As @CAPE has mentioned we have done well with small to medium events during previous winters which featured a negative EPO pattern. There's no reason to think we cannot take advantage of this time period later in the month for snowfall opportunities. What is also encouraging to know is that the polar vortex is not likely to strengthen significantly and even though the Arctic oscillation is forecast to rise from standard deviations of -3 it will likely head back down again according to the models

General concensus is still up with the PNA as of today's update.

The ECMWF AIFS Ens I heard are doing well. This shows we are back in business by the 15th. GEFS AI at the very bottom.

Wow that was awesome. Winds to at least 35 with crazy snowfall rates. Came in like a freight train. Worth getting up for. Heaviest snow I have seen in a long time.

Same here.

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.

The Pac jet extension is a bit too robust leading to the warm up. There is a ton of heat energy in the Western and SW Pac. The warm up was actually spoken about about 10 days ago, ( although some thought it would not happen since other warm ups have trended less and less over time ) however this time it appears likely it will be warming up ahead of the - EPO/ +TNH pattern. Goes to show you the Pac is King, the current - NAO and the - AO are useless when the Pac does not cooperate.

Oh my

It would be awesome ! I like how all three major ensembles are showing this happening, leading to more confidence going forward.

This period has the best overall potential if you favor powder events with snow on snow. Hopefully this becomes reality in a couple weeks. Maybe we even get a true deep winter feel with both cold and snow. Bring it !

You see a more active Southern stream?