Above average is above average. Doesn't need to be 50. But it's not like I don't get your point. +4 in Barrow, Alaska is frigid this time of year and around here +4 in Janaury doesn't necessarily mean "mild".
That's not really true. The playing field is a mess. Even if there is a phase for that 12th(ish) threat, any s/w that comes flying down could easily deamplify things and ruin the party.
He's not correct though. Plenty of storminess on all the ensembles. I'm not a big fan of anything until after mid month but the 12th(ish) could work out.
Literally no one. But that pattern is coming. That doesn't mean it will produce though.