Rjay

What's wrong homie?

EPS continues to not be enthused.

Would be quite the surprise if it did.

You're literally the same poster.

@mattinpa These northern members are really nice

Nice signal but it's just one run right now. Some of the members are awesome.

The gefs look sick for storm 2 fwiw.

Talk about the 2nd storm in here please until Walt does his thing. Thanks.

Keep this thread for the first storm only

The pac continued to f things up.

Take 2-4" and run

I should ban storm vista snowfall maps. Did they change their algo a couple of years ago? I remember they would show like 2-4" when other maps showed 6-10". Now it seems like they went full weenie with their algorithm.

35 with big fat flakes falling in Massapequa

-pna is killing us.

The models have moved away from phasing in the west so this storm isn't going to cut unless the modeling shifts dramatically back towards that.

Adios Tony version 23.0

Might ban this term.

Here's the 24 hour difference in runs out west as our storm organizes. The new run had less phasing out west and buried the s/w. A piece broke off and ended up to our south under the block.

Gfs now shows the same trailing s/w that the Euro showed last night

Pretty odd solution but that's to be expected I guess will a big west based -nao, deep trough in the west and a 200+ hour out op run

The Euro drives a low into the lakes then redevelops into strong coastal. Another run, another solution. 200+ hours out.

I don't think either are close to the final solution. I was just trying to explain why I was wrong saying the para solution couldn't happen.

To be fair I didn't really look into the details until now. The low in Canada is just a vigorous northern stream s/w. It's not like a storm developed over the plains and drove into the block. So I guess it's plausible. To put it simply, the gfs op has a strong southern stream s/w and weaker northern stream which allows heights to rise and the storm comes up the coast. Note the higher heights on the EC than the para. The para has a weaker, slower southern stream s/w and a stronger northern stream keeping heights on the EC much lower. Even if the southern stream were stronger this run it wouldn't come up the coast. Btw, I'm legit laughing at breaking down a day 9/10 op run but it's always fun to learn I guess.

I'm usually not the type to say this but there's no way that's happening like that. The primary is not making it into Ontario.