Rjay

The models have moved away from phasing in the west so this storm isn't going to cut unless the modeling shifts dramatically back towards that.

Adios Tony version 23.0

Might ban this term.

Here's the 24 hour difference in runs out west as our storm organizes. The new run had less phasing out west and buried the s/w. A piece broke off and ended up to our south under the block.

Gfs now shows the same trailing s/w that the Euro showed last night

Pretty odd solution but that's to be expected I guess will a big west based -nao, deep trough in the west and a 200+ hour out op run

The Euro drives a low into the lakes then redevelops into strong coastal. Another run, another solution. 200+ hours out.

I don't think either are close to the final solution. I was just trying to explain why I was wrong saying the para solution couldn't happen.

To be fair I didn't really look into the details until now. The low in Canada is just a vigorous northern stream s/w. It's not like a storm developed over the plains and drove into the block. So I guess it's plausible. To put it simply, the gfs op has a strong southern stream s/w and weaker northern stream which allows heights to rise and the storm comes up the coast. Note the higher heights on the EC than the para. The para has a weaker, slower southern stream s/w and a stronger northern stream keeping heights on the EC much lower. Even if the southern stream were stronger this run it wouldn't come up the coast. Btw, I'm legit laughing at breaking down a day 9/10 op run but it's always fun to learn I guess.

I'm usually not the type to say this but there's no way that's happening like that. The primary is not making it into Ontario.

Was flurrying in GB

The euro doesn't have the n/s dropping in like the gfs does

Agree Walt.

You can't have a storm driving that far north and it not be a warmish solution for most of our sub. There's strong signal on the ensembles for a storm in that time-frame. It would likely not be a full blown cutter but if it cuts into Ohio, redevelopment may happen too far north which would favor our nw burbs and even more likely New England. There's still a ton of time to figure out any details. Good thing this is a weather forum so we can weenie out a bit at a day 10 storm.

Nope they're saved for later.

You're 100% right about how hard it's been to sustain a -epo around here but BAMwx is awful. That crew flops around like a fish usually and they're wrong quite often.

You're good to go

If you want, I will reset it for you and PM you your password.

I know people are getting antsy but the upcoming pattern really isn't that bad. It might not work out for us but we def have a shot at more interesting wx.

All you need is a password?

I think we had 4 unless idk what I'm looking at

The day of the snow storm?

He literally @'ed the guy