WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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My guess is if it played out exactly as the 3k NAM shows, areas near DC would mix in lighter precip right around 12z. Heavies would stay snow probably.
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12z looks isothermal at 0C for a layer near 750mb. But colder before and after. Brief mixing if anything for DC proper.
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Thanks for the catch! Reading comprehension fail.
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17z NWS map still has me in the jack. Fingers crossed. (stolen from @DarkSharkWX Twitter)
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That's pretty right on with what my gut says too. I've been telling everyone 4-8", but I'm leaning toward the higher side of that range. 9-10" definitely not out of the question, but 12z runs reversed the nice push we got on 0z. I still don't really trust big ratios on the front end. Evening stuff tomorrow? That's fluff.
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30/5 with cirrus overcast thickening up
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Temporarily unpinning
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Someone make an observations thread. It’s time.
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@stormtracker you reading the will of the King?
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Happy New Year’s resolution season at the gym. Oy
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We’ll do a new thread after euro. You can make it now if you want
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Pretty large jump north on GGEM. Much closer to GFS, but still a bit south. 0.5” precip line went from well south of DC on 0z to north of a IAD-BWI line.
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@usedtobe potentially in the jackpot zone on multiple pieces of guidance
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12z is harshing my 0z buzz
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Definitely drier. Seems maybe due to weaker shortwave. Confluence is actually backed off notably even vs 6z run. But shortwave can’t pull in as much moisture perhaps.
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CWG bumped totals to 6-10” for most. 4-8” for M/D line crew and south of Stafford Va to St Mary’s MD.
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Outside of the DCA tarmac, we’re not going to lose a flake
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What I've occasionally seen from the GRAF on twitter is that it's closer to the consensus! WBAL seems to want to use a combo of the Ukie and the farther south Euro run from the last 48 hours.
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This is fairly similar... What the 6z here shows even more though is that areas JUST north of the sleet mixing line are absolutely thumping.
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DC TV mets all have max snow DC-north. WBAL has been consistent with congrats Short Pump lol. It's weird. I think 3-6" for Harford/Cecil could be reasonable. 2-4"? Gtfo, especially when they have WSWs.
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Anyone have pretty HREF maps? HREF, not SREF. From what I saw on Twitter (probably old now), it likes DC-Baltimore as the max stripe, but solid for most of us.
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Looked at 6z 3k NAM soundings. DC definitely stays all snow verbatim. Close at 12-13z, but it seems that may partially be due to lighter precip. Column cools again at 14-15z when things get a little heavier. Soundings tomorrow evening are beautiful for 12-15:1 fluff. Plan your @Jebman Jebwalks accordingly.
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I didn’t think we’d be done after tomorrow and I don’t think we’re done after Saturday. Potential for a major @Bob Chill heater this month.
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This is one of my favorite Twitter/bsky accounts
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This has heartbreak written all over it for some of us in the subforum. But a long way to go, so hope I’m wrong. Good thing most of us will score tomorrow.
