WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Low of 36. Coldest of the season.
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Freeze warning for essentially all the LWX area that hasn’t had a freeze plus the eastern shore tonight. Guidance looks like M/U 30s though? Maybe I’m missing something.
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Central MD at or near peak this weekend. Colors are very nice this year. Leafdrop just seems also to be going quickly, so colors might not last as long.
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Overnight ensemble systems all with a pattern change to an eastern trough around Election Day. EPS with cleanest depiction and coupled +PNA/-NAO.
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If this year is a total dud (0-4” at the airports), I don’t think anyone will struggle to find the culprit. But I’m holding out some hope that the central/west equatorial PAC warmth and the warm water off the west coast can give us some favorable looks at times. If we can cash in on those, we can get a “good Niña” year.
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BAMWx teasing a big pattern change by mid-Novie. Maybe that’s the start. GEFSX starts changing the EPO around the 10th, but more toward neutral than sharply negative. -AO/-NAO seems like the mechanism to cool us down. Looks wetter too FWIW.
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Need a hard freeze. Once that happens they’re done.
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October was running slightly BN up until the last few warm days
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+EPO/WPO very durable on ensembles for next 2 weeks. Doesn’t mean mega torch the whole time, but does mean no long duration BN temps anytime soon. Maybe just saving up the cold air for winter?
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Can’t have a game without one baffling coaching decision
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Hit 77-78 here
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EPS progression there follows Roundy’s longwave prog I posted a week ago or so, where the eastern ridge slowly evolves northward and gets undercut to some degree during November.
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ENSO region without a major signal, but the north Pac is interesting. That major marine heatwave east of Japan is continuing, but a lot of warm water along the west coast.
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Hmmm weird
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@TheClimateChanger’s point though was that lowest reported dew point was 34 with 100% humidity. But it apparently dropped 2F more from there. Not impossible but unusual at least.
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Low of only 43 IMBY and 46 now. BWI was down to 37 earlier and 41 now. But there are several PWSs near BWI with temps in the upper 30s currently.
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Good catch on the humidity and temp. Not a slam dunk, but definitely suspect. The repaving of the apron at BWI seemed to make a real difference a few years ago. Typically pushed BWI temps closer to DCA vs IAD as before. But the min temp readings the last few weeks have surprised me.
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That was a record low at BWI and earliest first freeze since 2006.
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BWI has been colder than MBY I think every or nearly every cool morning since this season. Very big change from previous years. Not sure what has changed…
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Damn. First freeze at BWI officially. Hit 32.
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38 at home, BWI down to 34. BWI has been a cold spot this fall. Not sure if that’s random variance or if they adjusted something about the measurements.
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BWI hit 35 this morning, which is a typical mark for frost on the ground. I was curious if and how October frost frequency has changed over my life, so here’s the last 40 years. Mean and median days with frost hasn’t actually changed too much (2-3 days for both), but the months with numerous frosts haven’t been since in a couple decades. 2024 is month to date.
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Surprised to see some frost on neighborhood rooftops
