WxUSAF
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Ok goodnight weenies. Don’t let the euro f this up while I’m sleeping plz.
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Whoa. And 3k has much less wet bias than 12k… if tomorrows 12z run is similar…ooohhh baby.
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3k says the lead band that enters the area from 3-6z is driven by the 700mb fgen. Then it moves north and weakens as the 850mb fgen arrives 12-15z over mostly the same area. Hence you don’t get two areas with local maxima in snow totals but one broad swath.
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Globals seemed to have them in all snow or snow-mix-snow as Storm developed. But close to the line. Nam and hrrr had most mixing. But @csnavywx made a good point about the subsaturated column.
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To those about to be NAM’d, we salute you
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Ah interesting. Nice catch.
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HRRR is generally bad at synoptic snowfall in my experience.
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For KC at least it shows the warm layer aloft is stronger than suggested even 6-12 hours ago.
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Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet.
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So much for cleaning up the penalties. They’re going to win, but this is a sloppy game before the playoffs.
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I think the dual band structure is probably going to happen. NBM sorta smoothes that out. 3k NAM does a similar swath through somewhat overlapping zones of the banding at different stages of the storm.
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^if we think there are forecast challenges for our area, Mt Holly and Philly Mets got to be pulling their hair out. @Heisy?? 1-2” on the euro and nbm with warning level.
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I think it’s possible but like all of us I can see failure modes lol. Getting between the 2 bands seems like maybe the most realistic for now. Too far north for the big WAA, too far south for big ratios. Still I think 5”/warning level is a probable floor. I personally am still rooting for a 3k NAM/NBM swath.
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Thanks for the gif. Looks more windshield wiper to me than any real trend. Got 24-30 hours for any true movement.
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If anyone has a gif of euro total precip from last 3-4 runs, I’d appreciate it!
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There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south.
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Sloppy first half on offense
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From a Mt Holly met
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0 for 2 on 4th down in the red zone. Probably can get away with it against the browns. Not next week.
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Looks like a sloppy evolution with strong northern and southern stream shortwaves, but sooo much energy flying around. Big upside potential clearly there.
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Gfs gonna do something
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With the disagreement still among the globals even, might have to wait until even 12z tomorrow to get a good sense of warm layers and banding.
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This is exactly it based on TT plots
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Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift?
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Hello people? Euro hit next weekend too
