WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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EPS seems to be doing the same thing but later by a couple days. We’ll see how it all evolves in time.
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Not within the next 16 days at least according to the GEPS and GEFS. A little SER or WAR can be ok to keep the storm track close when we also have cold air established. But in this case, having the whole pattern move a bit west lets the Gulf open up potentially.
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GEPS was onboard with this before, but 12z is the first I’ve seen GEFS move strongly toward showing the western ridge move off the west coast, allowing the eastern trough axis to shift westward as well. And what happens almost immediately? The gulf opens up and precip starts flowing toward us. This is all after next weekend (7th and after), but I like to see it. Thanksgiving through the 7th or so looks northern stream dominant. After that, small shifts could open us up to more southern stream involvement.
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Obviously we could go through the whole cold pattern snowless, but I’d bet against getting totally skunked. But we could certainly top out at a dusting or two. Saw a plot yesterday of EPS analogs for its D10-15 forecast (this was yesterday’s 0z run). Couple were essentially snowless at BWI with just a T or two. Several had a light event or two nearby in time (1-3” type deal). Best was 12/5/2002…the OG December 5th storm.
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~1/4” of rain is a deluge by fall 2024 standards
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Damn. House shaking thunder at 630am on November 26th
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Yeah big win. Still so many penalties, but I’ll take that defensive performance.
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I saw a January 2022 H5 chart today. Looked a lot like our upcoming pattern to my eyes and I would jump at a January 2022 redux…
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It was key in 2013-14, which is getting tossed around a lot as an analog. WAR/SER was over us a lot, but with the arctic air to our northwest, we cashed in over and over.
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Yeah GEFS seems to be waffling in the EPO domain more than EPS. But I actually like how GEFS and GEPS (to a lesser degree) show a WAR building in late in the run. That could help push the storm track back closer.
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Are you talking about the euro op or eps? If it’s the op, who cares? If it’s the eps, that would be a drastic change from the 0z run. But I always bet on a Xmas week torch. Easy money.
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Also showing some action around the 7th. Same time as euro op more or less.
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GEFS has a little intrigue for next Sunday. Ops all show the wave, but mostly shear it apart.
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Low of 34 with patchy frost
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11/22: 0.2”
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^7” for MBY through January 8. Again probably slightly above normal. but if snowiest week is second week of December, that’s an encouraging sign for how we’re viewing the pattern evolution.
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Yes. FWIW (not much), JB tweeted the euro weekly snow map through Xmas. Looked like basically 3-6” for the general metro area. That’s probably slightly above normal for the first 3.5 weeks of December.
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But Daniels got me 41.4 fantasy points so appreciate that!
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Lol commies omg
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We want that trough axis to our west though, not over us. But that’s the type of thing that can happen with specific shortwaves rather than a longwave average.
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Not sure if something like a “decade trend” exists, but what few respectable storms we’ve had in the last 5 years have mostly been northern stream storms that moistened up in the 3-4 days before they hit. From range they all looked like weak sauce flurries.
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Ah, tis the season for Will to post maps showing me with a 1-5% chance of snow between now and ragnarok.
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Agreed, not sure there’s a legit path to victory. Only thing I can imagine is if it splits into two storms, with the first one strong enough to pull just enough cold air behind it so a weaker second storm (thanksgiving night or Friday) can throw us some light snow. But I haven’t seen that on any guidance as even a one off solution.
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If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it.
