WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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HRRR is generally bad at synoptic snowfall in my experience.
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For KC at least it shows the warm layer aloft is stronger than suggested even 6-12 hours ago.
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Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet.
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So much for cleaning up the penalties. They’re going to win, but this is a sloppy game before the playoffs.
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I think the dual band structure is probably going to happen. NBM sorta smoothes that out. 3k NAM does a similar swath through somewhat overlapping zones of the banding at different stages of the storm.
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^if we think there are forecast challenges for our area, Mt Holly and Philly Mets got to be pulling their hair out. @Heisy?? 1-2” on the euro and nbm with warning level.
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I think it’s possible but like all of us I can see failure modes lol. Getting between the 2 bands seems like maybe the most realistic for now. Too far north for the big WAA, too far south for big ratios. Still I think 5”/warning level is a probable floor. I personally am still rooting for a 3k NAM/NBM swath.
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Thanks for the gif. Looks more windshield wiper to me than any real trend. Got 24-30 hours for any true movement.
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If anyone has a gif of euro total precip from last 3-4 runs, I’d appreciate it!
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There’s no real high pressure to the north though thanks to that northern stream shortwave. Kinda relying on the confluence and antecedent airmass. So bigger chance for mixing and rain if the coastal doesn’t take over to our south.
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Sloppy first half on offense
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From a Mt Holly met
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0 for 2 on 4th down in the red zone. Probably can get away with it against the browns. Not next week.
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Looks like a sloppy evolution with strong northern and southern stream shortwaves, but sooo much energy flying around. Big upside potential clearly there.
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Gfs gonna do something
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With the disagreement still among the globals even, might have to wait until even 12z tomorrow to get a good sense of warm layers and banding.
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This is exactly it based on TT plots
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Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift?
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Hello people? Euro hit next weekend too
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This is the part I want to max out. Major fluff potential.
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That’s sleet
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Like i said yesterday. I’d pay attention to the 3k NAM thermals once its track matches the global model consensus. Probably 18z or 0z.
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3k is the one to care about soon
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The next time the extended hrrr nails synoptic snow forecasts will be the first!
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As cold as the antecedent airmass is, there’s no man high up over New England or Ontario to push back against the WAA. And WAA usually over performs a bit too.
