WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I do too tbh. I’ve been saying 4-8” for our area and I don’t see a reason to change that now. But I think better chance of bumping that to 6-12” than 2-4”.
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I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see.
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I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night.
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I mean…it’s fine? But yet another marginal Elias FA move.
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Looks a little juicier for metro corridor and points north?
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I’m feeling optimistic for Monday
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Getting a good burst but not going to last long enough to measure.
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Jealous. I definitely missed out.
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Hartford county got a dusting per family pictures. @mappy did too. HoCo has been high and dry so far outside of flurries. We'll see if these returns produce anything of note.
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Going to get something, but best returns look like they'll skirt southwest of me
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Hoping the squalls near the PA line north of Hagerstown strengthen and make it here. That’s my chance for any accumulation.
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Flurries in Columbia.
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Looks like max stripe is between RIC and DC.
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I think you’re good dude. I think snow max is going to fall between north side of 495 and like Philly. Max precip maybe somewhere like Fredericksburg .
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Yeah I'd expect the overnight shift tonight to issue them for most if not all LWX area and probably PHL too
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GFS is at least a modest hit next weekend.
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ALEET ALEET @stormtracker report to the GFS PBP room ALEET ALEET
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My wag at GFS sounding analysis for immediate 495 area is that 12z Monday is probably snow with heavy rates and a tiny layer at freezing more or less. 18z is probably sleet with lighter rates and a wider warm layer. Reminder that as we get closer, NAM and Euro profiles will be more accurate for assessing p-types. p.s.: we all should be rooting HARD for that ULL/CCB snow area to verify/intensify/biggify. Soundings for that are gorgeous. That is some 12-15:1 champagne powder on the GFS.
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I should start charging for all the free wx advice I give friends and acquaintances with businesses and school system connections
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Icon basically back to 12z yesterday's solution in terms of snow amounts. Slightly later arrival is consistent across all guidance.
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HoCo closing early. Thank goodness my overworked kids get a break after 1.5 days of schooling!
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Reminder just in case anyone forgot that nam bias is too wet (12k especially) and too amped. When NAM’s track agrees closely with the global guidance (18z tomorrow?), then using it for thermals/mixing/banding is the proper value-added use.
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Anyone who gets a squall is going to see temps drop very quickly.
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I think @psuhoffmanis probably doing the “guy peaking out from behind the tree rubbing his hands” gif thing once he sees the overnight runs. I think you’re good. If the max ends up along the VA/NC border, then that’s probably too far.
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I’m leaving some of my outdoor Xmas decorations up specifically because I want to see them in the snow
