WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Webb is onboard. The point of this is that a more southern stream only storm is less likely to get pulled inland up the TN valley or Apps and rain us.
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To me, euro at 192hrs looks textbook classic for a I95 snowstorm except for the look over the Midwest. Bring a bit more high pressure over the lakes and plains and don’t have the northern stream wave try and phase in and it’s an absolute mauling.
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Am I missing something when people say the shortwave hits Cali in 3 days? That’s the shortwave for the cutter and any possible anafrontal activity. Shortwave for next weekend doesn’t look like it comes onshore until like 5.5-6 days from now. Speaking of the anafrontal wave, euro has it clearly but quite far south.
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Haven’t seen it yet, but @tombo82685 saying GEFS is liking the anafrontal event more this run.
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GGEM has an even goofier setup than the GFS if that’s possible. I think right now we have an idea of the players that might/could/probably will be on the board. An arctic high and a strong southern stream s/w. That’s a good mix for a starting position. Lots of details to work out on positions and relative strength.
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Normal temps and AN precip for January and February? I’d take that in a hot second. Of course the seasonal’s verification sucks.
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Something’s really funky with TT’s snow maps in the mid and long range.
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Agree except for the last few days when the temp has basically been stuck between 35-45. Boring. I need something below freezing.
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I haven’t looked yet myself, but from reading elsewhere it sounds like the overnight ensembles (GEFS and Eps) were more bullish on the mid week anfrontal wave.
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A few op runs have hinted at that. 0z euro and the last couple GGEM runs I think. Key would be a bit of wave spacing so the cold air can get here and then the wave can ride along the boundary.
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What's nice is that (at the moment at least), it doesn't look like this is a transient window. Yes, the first arctic high rotates out, but there appear to be more behind it and the background pattern looks to hang around through the following week at least.
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Webb is IN Maybe
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Do it!
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Always hilarious how fast models erode CAD. Euro goes from ice into Alabama to rain in Allentown, PA, in 18 hours. Ok, yeah, sure.
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Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely.
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Ha, no idea. It’s all such small sample size statistics and then try and account for a warming climate and who TF knows? Not to mention how much random chance impacts our snowfall vs. places farther north.
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Speaking of overrunning, gorgeous setup in uber-fantasyland GFS that delivers a modest event, with another on the way at the end.
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Yeah, but the atmosphere is still behaving like one for now. Ride that train, Bob.
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It’s already started
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Actually, my windshield is all frozen over now. But did see about a dozen beautiful dendrites stuck to the roof of my car! More snow than I saw in December 2018...
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Got precip overnight but temps didn’t cooperate it looks like. Actually spiked while it was snowing or raining. Either way just wet now.
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Snowband maybe starting to develop on radar. A bit ahead of schedule if so.
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Well, seems we’ve got that locked in D10 snow/mix/rain storm all sorted.
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Happy birthday!
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Probably not surprising in the era of nondivergent ensembles, but the EPS looks reasonably close to the op euro at D10. GGEM actually looks quite similar too.
