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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I was thinking 17-18 was cold to the coast and the deep south got snow while we were mostly dry but frigid.
  2. John1122
    17-18 was our last monster cold wave. Unfortunately it was also arctic dry. Had we managed snow cover we'd have seen -10s that time. Still, we were two weeks below freezing and the creek had ice 8 inches thick here. Late December and early January cold waves are different due to that low sun angle. When they hit, we get a lot of frozen creeks and ponds. Hopefully we get snow with this one.
  3. John1122
    The ridge out west will be all the difference for our area, it needs to be a little taller than it was on the Euro to get a solution more like the GFS from 12z. The consensus now is cold, and a system that has a great deal of spread in it's evolution. So right now I'd feel very comfortable saying it's going to get very cold. Somewhat comfortable saying that there will at least be flakes in the air somewhere in our region as we head towards Christmas week, but very unsure about anything beyond that.
  4. John1122
    I think we will get it in this pattern. It's rare to get such a potent front to move through that doesn't at least bring some snow with it.
  5. John1122
    Wild, wound up storm on the Euro. Wraps in incredible cold and snowy weather across the region.
  6. John1122
    Really nice clipper pass on the 0z for most of the area. Reminds me of the old Siberian express systems that would dump 2-4 inches of snow and rush in extreme cold behind it. The Canadian is almost as snowy, but even colder than the GFS through 210.
  7. John1122
    Poured all day here as well. There was some thunder around 5pm this evening too.
  8. John1122
    The Euro is still not where we'd like it to be, but it's slow to get on board over the last few years, on systems like this. We've had a few nice anafrontal events including the 2020 Christmas eve snow, that the GFS spotted first.
  9. John1122
    The 12z suite is coming in cold and the snow was back to some extent on the GFS and the Canadian is all in.
  10. John1122
    The GFS is so extreme that there's a late run snow event where New Orleans is too far north to be in the heavy snow axis. Mobile and Panama City do really well.
  11. John1122
    The Canadian has the GFS rain to snow idea from 18z. Also very cold, if not quite as cold as the GFS. Curious to see now if the Euro joins the cold part or keeps it's warmer idea from 12z that lacked ensemble support from the EPS.
  12. John1122
    0z GFS now has a clipper ushering in the frigidity on December 21st. Then it gets frigid and upslope piles up on the plateau and mountains, Even not showing up on the p-type maps the snowfall totals go up.
  13. John1122
    It's 1983/1989 cold as we head into Christmas per the 18z.
  14. John1122
    18z looks just like modeling did for the 2020 Christmas eve snow event. Those strips of heavier snow in an anafrontal situation. I've noticed it often models anafrontal snow that way but we tend to all get closer to equal amounts when it happens.
  15. John1122
    I believe 1064 is the record for the lower 48.
  16. John1122
    12Z GFS is full 1983. The December of ultimate frustration as Daniel noted. That year we'd get cutters, then ice box cold. Looks like single digits and low teens in the afternoon on Christmas Eve after a rain to snow front this time out. Sounds like 2020. Major cold, but once again, GFS at range is not reliable so far.
  17. John1122
    The Canadian has the first storm the GFS is showing but squashes soon after it gets going in the gulf.
  18. John1122
    That GFS run is a major winter storm for us all. It's legendary for underdoing precip shields for gulf lows, often having them hundreds of miles South of the area where they verify. A LP in that spot at that strength usually has a good precip shield up to Lexington. That said, suppressed at range is always better. That's assuming you can trust the gfs at all, which is a big assumption.
  19. John1122
    If it could be believed (I don't believe it) the suppressed look and storms passing to the South is generally what we want at this range. Odd to see Miller A's just cross the Gulf and die but no more odd than anything else the GFS is selling today.
  20. John1122
    The GFS Op these days.
  21. John1122
    I never see ads on here. Use adblock on your browser. It's free and works well.
  22. John1122
    The mean on the GEFS actually very slightly went up on the snowfall potential on the back end of the system.
  23. John1122
    We will see where it goes, but I wouldn't give a lot of credence to the GFS right now. One run its a snowstorm. One run its a heatwave. The 12z had us in the upper 10s and low 20s 1am Christmas morning. The 18z has temps in the mid 60s at 1am Christmas morning. I don't think I've ever seen a model perform so wildly with basically every run.
  24. John1122
    The long range discussion linked yesterday summed it up nicely. The GFS isn't letting cyclones feel the effect of blocking properly and when it doesn't, it throws off the entire run.
  25. John1122
    Honestly, the GFS shows almost every possible solution over a given 24-48 hour period these days, to the extent that at least one of it's solutions will probably be correct. As noted by the CPC, it's been plowing storms northward into -NAO blocking. That causes every domino after that to fall askew for the model.
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