John1122

Certain parts of the forum, because it's laid out so far West to East, depend on different drivers for snow to large extent. Mountain ranges also significantly affect things. Our golden ideal is +PNA/-NAO/-AO. That pattern is more likely to promote Southern sliders that don't warm nose and get basically everyone from Dyersburg and Memphis to Chattanooga and Bristol VA. But there are other ways to skin the cat. The Pacific can drive the whole bus for us all, but especially Plateau and West. The NAO has a tougher time overcoming a hostile Pacific but a neutral Pacific can let it make hay. The Pacific fueled the extreme winter of 2014-15. That was very nearly all EPO driven. Those are still broad pattern drivers but smaller drivers ultimately decide the actual weather. That's why it can rain in a favorable patten and snow in a bad one. Give me a banana high in Iowa and Pennsylvania with a low in the gulf and I'll take my chances in any winter month.

The GEFS had a 127 inch mean in the Sierra's last night at 0z.

He's hanging out on the south facing side.

I've finally made it above freezing, 33. Spent around 132 hours below. Not the longest stretch ever, but still impressive.

That was the most bizarre storm evolution I've maybe ever seen on a weather model, on the 0z GFS. At one point it's snowing in literally a 360 degree circle around East Tennessee/SWVA and SE KY as this 24 hour snow map shows. The crazy thing is, it raining here, and in Western NC/Northern Georgia but changes to snow there while avoiding pulling cold air into just that small portion of our area and it avoids changing to snow here. It's not even a valley warm nose because Chattanooga changes and gets 3-4 inches while the snowhole continues along I-40/I-81 and into SE Kentucky. It'll be gone by 06, but it's just crazy how wild these model runs can get at times.

Amazingly enough, after all the radar returns have gone, it's snowing here and has dusted the cars. The ground was still snow covered from the other day.

I would have never thought you missed out on the 3 Jan events in 1984. I know Tazewell got less snow from each but that they had snow each time out. I think 1 inch in the Anafrontal, and 2 inches the 16th and 6.5 the 18th. February was warm overall but the 4 or 5 cold days were extremely cold with a big snow here. 1989 is sort of similar to this time frame as well. Except 1989 had much more cold in December with multiple cold shots. That's something I've noticed over the years. We don't often have a single extreme cold shot. If we get an extreme cold shot, which to me us generally days where the high is low 20s or colder and the low is around 0 or less, we tend to get multiple shots of it. The last two years were snowy here but lacked any extreme cold imby. I know the western areas got extreme in 2021. In 1989 it happened but close together. We had sub zero lows. Went back to near 40 two days later and then another, bigger cold blast happened and extreme cold returned a week after the first. So I believe there is a good chance extreme cold returns at some point in winter.

I'm a big believer in weather repeating. November 1983, wishy washy with very warm and very cold weather. Ended up -.2 here or basically normal. November 2022, wishy washy with very warm and very cold weather. Ended up -.5ish here. Or basically normal. December 1983. Warm with several days more than +10. Then big cold hit Christmas week. Single digits highs and well below 0 lows but barely any snow to show for it. It warmed to AN by Dec 28th but did get really cold for New Years. December 2023, very warm with multiple very above average temperatures. Then of course the extreme cold we've had with most of us not getting a lot of snow. Gonna warm up towards New Years January 1984 after a cold first couple of days, warmed to AN, peaking at the mid 60s by Jan 10th. Then the bottom fell out. 4 inches of snow on the 11th in an Anafrontal situation. Stayed just BN, which is plenty cold for Mid January, upper 30s and upper 20s. Then another 3 inches of snow fell on the 16th. Stayed cold, 7 inches fell on the 18th and the bottom dropped out on the thermometer. 3 days in a row with -10s for lows and teens for highs. Warmed up on the 23rd and the snow melted off by the 26th. Warm to the end of the month. February 1984. Mostly warm, but had 4 BN days in a row from the 5th to the 9th and it snowed 7.5 inches and we had a -4 and a -9 low. March 1984 was cold. Snow fell on 12 different days and there was 2.5 inches on March 22nd. Lows in the 10s 5 different days. The March 22nd snow was two days after a 76 degree high on the 20th. So hopefully we can get a similar story to unfold here after a pretty similar late fall and first week of winter of 1983.

That's better than me! Just bitter cold. The clouds socked in and it stayed at 24 again today. My heating bill dollars to inches of snow ratio is going to be skewed badly after the last 4 days.

That's 3 more than I got north of LaFollette.

Already seeing videos of people doing donuts in West Town Mall parking lot.

The clipper just swung very far west and south compared to most clippers.

Never seen a clipper causing precip down towards the Gulf Coast. We'd normally be lucky to be in the section that's down in Alabama now.

One thing about MRX, they are consistent on not putting out advisories.

Yeah. They are white here. So are several parking lots.

This is unique in my memory. I've never that I can recall been too far north for a clipper. Most clippers here you hope to stay cold enough for all snow if the moisture even reaches this far south. Looks like that band of 1.5 inches some models were showing may come to pass in parts of Central Knox.

GFS - you get 5 inches from Arctic front. ---- WRONG! GFS - you get nothing from Clipper ---- Perfect forecast! I'll never know how models can be so bad for snow it shows that doesn't happen but so perfect for snow that it shows missing.

It's close to me but 50/50 that it just dies as it gets here like it did when the Arctic front moved through the other night.

Not a common thing in my experience to be too far north for a clipper but it looks like north of 40 will be in Eastern areas. Southern valley/Chattanooga is looking like a secondary bullseye across almost all modeling now for a quick inch or so.

The HRRR is still healthy for western areas, especially north of 40. It's trying to squeeze out an inch or so in the East.

My grandpa always said, "if it clouds up a frost, snow is on the way."

The 21z RAP is 1+ almost valley wide. Quite a bit more out west.

As for the cold section of the thread. My high today was 24.4 after a low of 6.2 this morning. Maybe the coldest multi day stretch we've ever seen with such minimal snow cover. I was colder in December 1989 but had several inches of snow on the ground. Also colder in 1985 but had a lot snow on the ground.

The various NAM nest models are downright aggressive. Especially for the mid-state. The Canadian family seems to like the Chattanooga area. The GFS and HRRR have a nice 1 to 1.5 around Knoxville.

Several models are coming in with .75 to 1.5 inches from the clipper tomorrow. WFOs are playing it way down, especially MRX, but it may surprise. Every flake will stick on all surfaces.