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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I've not read it all yet, but there's a direct relationship for MJO location and strength during winter months with a falling QBO/Easterly QBO. They haven't figured out what causes the link and models struggle with it more than normal because they don't know yet what's the connection. Only that it has a 95% correlation and it definitely happens.
  2. John1122
    The second storm takes a perfect track but isn't too strong, which would help with WAA. Nice run for south of 40 especially for that storm. But generally 1.5 to 4 inches across most of the forum with a two storm total of 4-10 inches being fairly widespread.
  3. John1122
    That said, probably time for one of you guys to crank up a January thread. My pending trip to Chattanooga seems to have fired winter on all cylinders.
  4. John1122
    The Euro is loading up for a second storm just about 48 hours later.
  5. John1122
    Just a beast of a winter storm on the Euro again this run. Great run for areas along and south of 40 in middle and western areas, with the Plateau and Mountains getting crushed along with SE Ky and SWVa.
  6. John1122
    The Canadian follows up the suppressed storm with a perfect Southern slider that would make the whole forum pretty happy.
  7. John1122
    Canadian also has it in suppressed fashion.
  8. John1122
    GFS has a nice little Eastern areas 40 and north/Northern Plateau thumper at 147-156. Consistent storm signal there but this whole fall and winter most storms have under performed on QPF with a couple of exceptions.
  9. John1122
    Judging by several models, Monterey at 1880ft has a good shot at 1 inch+. The 3k NAM is giving 4-5 inches above 2800ft+ on the mountain above Caryville I was talking about, but it's liable to be very sketchy road wise there. Especially with 3-5 inches. I'd guess it probably ends up closer to the 1-2 inch range. It's very similar to the mountains around Wise in that it's oriented similarly and just seems to maximize snow opportunities.
  10. John1122
    From Western Cumberland south down the Western Plateau looks best for now. That's just how it goes with upper level energy.
  11. John1122
    Mine isn't far off but it's a random chance of rain mixing in between 9 and 10pm. Friday A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night A chance of snow showers before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9pm and 10pm, then a chance of snow showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 4pm, then a chance of sprinkles. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  12. John1122
    To get above 2500 here generally requires some driving in places that are hazardous in a 2-wheel drive when there's snow. Otherwise I'd just say head up Mountain Rd in Caryville right off 134. It gets above 3000 feet but has steep switchbacks that are pretty tough to deal with in snowy conditions.
  13. John1122
    Without a 4x4 I'd watch the models/radar and head to either Western Cumberland Co or 141 area in Campbell County. In Campbell, 141 sits at around 1800 feet and there's plenty of level driving there. Most modeling has that area getting an inch or so but timing looks like it may be more Friday night. Western Cumberland looks to be one of the better parts as far as potential accumulations. I'm not sure if a 4x4 would be needed or not.
  14. John1122
    Super soaker here two days in a row. Had ponds in the yard yesterday and it poured down again this evening. I just noticed how dry it was in SW Va and a spot right over Jed near Morristown. I figured everyone was getting dumped on from this one.
  15. John1122
    The GFS keeps having some version of this around New Years give or take 24 hours. The 18z was a good run for the east middle and eastern areas mostly. Odd snowhle in NE Tn.
  16. John1122
    Just reading about China having one of the coldest winter periods they've ever experienced. They've been in the ice box all month. Beijing has set the record for hours below freezing in a month. Some areas are hitting -40c and there's been major snow storms and blizzards. Eventually we'll get hit with that kind of unusual pattern, It was close in 2021 when it went to Texas and our western forum members got the edge of it.
  17. John1122
    2021. The SSW started January 5th and lasted through the 23rd or so. It was an ice box in February but mostly from the Plateau and west. It's the year Texas froze. 2018 was just brutal but it was late winter and we froze in March instead of it happening at a decent time. There was a weak on in January 2015 as well. We were extremely cold then too.
  18. John1122
    Saw a story a week or so ago that a major strat warming was coming. Hopefully we get the cold and not the other side of the world, if it does split.
  19. John1122
    The GFS and Canadian both have a snow event and it's a week out instead of 300+ for a change.
  20. John1122
    The CFS from this morning was quite incredible. If this comes to pass, barring a drought of epic proportions of some very unusual cutters that open the dry ice box, we'd likely pile up winter events forum wide. To put this in perspective these aren't far off January into Early February 1985 numbers and are spot on Jan/Early Feb 1996 numbers.
  21. John1122
    Been under a persistent NW flow band for several hours but it's light and has only amounted to a dusting. I would guess above 2500 they are probably gonna be closer to 1/2 to 3/4ths of an inch.
  22. John1122
    Picking up here as it gets dark, which seems to usually be the case in these type events.
  23. John1122
    Another snow shower rolling through with extreme winds. There was no graupel or anything. Just plain snow.
  24. John1122
    Had a 5 minute horizontal snow shower. Looks like another about to move over.
  25. John1122
    It does appear I'm barely missing a snow shower according to radar.
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