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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    There's apparently an East Tennessee winter storm Facebook page that was hyping the GFS run as if it were legitimately a threat. The shame of it is it has thousands of followers.
  2. John1122
    That would make this winter almost dead on with 1993. It also featured a horrible December and January that finally got a little snowy the last 10 days of February then the March mega storm hit. My actual guess is that it's wildly wrong of course. But the GFS has done the best with temperatures for the past several weeks. I believe I saw that the GFS was only -2.7, the Euro was -4.8, the Euro Ens were -5.5ish, the GEFS was -6.8 and the GGEM was something like -11.
  3. John1122
    I'm already ready for summer and spring to be over. Tennessee isn't making the NCAAs and I'm already tired of humid, 88-95 degrees and rain. At least in fall when it's still 88-95 degrees its dry.
  4. John1122
    Another 4 inch week of rain would probably out us back into areal flooding. The ground is like a full sponge right now. I had a flat earlier and had the worst time changing it. Due to the nature of where I live there are sections of paved road and sections of gravel. My flat happened in gravel. It was like soup, my jack kept sinking into the ground. Soil is soaked at every level.
  5. John1122
    Had an 8 foot deep mega pothole/sinkhole open in an area roadway this week. There was a huge one in a backyard a couple weeks ago.
  6. John1122
    2012 ended up being the lowest summer ice extent on record due to a very unfavorable pattern that developed in spring and summer over the Arctic. 2012 at this time of year wasn't remotely the lowest ice extent on record. We are slightly ahead of 2012 right now and overall this winter has seen gains in Arctic ice that easily outpaced average. Currently sea is is ahead of 2019 on this date, well ahead of 2018 on this date, well ahead of 2017 on this date, well ahead of 2016 on this date, ahead of 2015 on this date, ahead of 2014 on this date, roughly tied with 2013 on this date, ahead of 2011 on this date, roughly tied with 2010, behind 2009 and 2008, ahead of 2007, ahead of 2006, ahead of 2005, behind 2004-2001. So in the last 20 years we are currently ahead on Arctic sea ice vs 14 of the 20 years. So the +AO has done pretty good work in the Arctic this year.
  7. John1122
    .91 in the bucket since around 3am this morning. MRX has most of the area in the 4-6 inch range by Thursday. Not sure that flash flooding will be an issue but a lot of slow rising water issues will happen at that point. I'm now at 8.17 inches of rain already for the month and had 7.35 last month. So already 8 inches or so above normal for 2020.
  8. John1122
    Not a pretty picture on the 18z GFS Mon-Thurs morning.
  9. John1122
    WPC day 3 outlook.
  10. John1122
    Hwy 25w is closed here. 5.14 inches of rain from the event so far. Still raining.
  11. John1122
    It is absolutely dumping down in buckets out there now with fairly frequent thunder in the area.
  12. John1122
    Just heard thunder rumble. Snow countdown clock is on.
  13. John1122
    Extremely heavy rain currently falling. My power just came back on after going out around 4pm. Crossed the 3 inch mark as of 6:15.
  14. John1122
    Currently at 2.08 inches since Monday evening. Creeks are high and rising and it's pouring down now with a tongue of 3-4 more inches expected through tomorrow. All this coming off the rainiest year ever here, which followed the prior rainiest year ever with the GFS forecasting 12-16 inches of rain for the area over the next 2 weeks. I've had 162 inches of rain in the past 25 months. That's an average of 6.5 inches of rain per month for over 2 consecutive years. That came on the heels of one of the worst droughts we've seen here. The weather is nothing but extremes these days. Extreme warmth, extreme drought, extreme rains, and on the rare times it's managed to get wintry and cold, it was extreme those winters too.
  15. John1122
    From what I've seen it's been verifying similarly since November or December. It is much warmer than the North American models because they've been ridiculous. the off the chart GEFS had been verifying almost 8 degrees too cold.
  16. John1122
    Current 90 day model bias. Hopefully these update in the page but maybe not. Won't bother with the Canadian, because they upgraded recently, but the old Canadian was in the 4-5+ degrees top cold at every period from 2-5 through 11-15. The most accurate 2-5 day temp forecast was NWS forecast offices, almost mirrored by GFS MOS. For longer range the Euro Op was best, but the GFS OP is surprisingly better than the Ensembles. The Canadian stunk at every level. Euro Ens GFSENS Euro Op GFS OP
  17. John1122
    That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night. There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison.
  18. John1122
    Yep. The tornado history site counted them as Tennessee F5. I believe 3 of the F4 also started outside of Tennessee on there so not sure if they were F4 in the state or not. The other 29 F4 formed in Tennessee.
  19. John1122
    I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee.
  20. John1122
    There have been 92 F3, 32 F4 and 3 F5 in Tennessee.
  21. John1122
    2.38 inches and pouring down out there right now with some heavy upstream returns coming. Some flooding issues cropping up in the area and creeks are very high.
  22. John1122
    Now at 1.28 after moderate/heavy rain for the past few hours.
  23. John1122
    .55 has fallen here so far. I can't imagine we manage a 3rd straight year of much much AN precip.
  24. John1122
    Yes, that's what happened here a week later. Power line snapping cement with 2 inch per hour rates for 8+ hours. They literally record 3 to 5 inches for 4 straight days at Tri on the official record. That's a big part of why the extremely low snowfall averages are off in our region. Extremely poor quality control. You can't have a remotely accurate 30 year average when you're missing the biggest events of the timeframe. After looking it adds up to 17.6 falling at Tri airport.
  25. John1122
    It's not right and the maps that accompany them are honestly laughable. As I mentioned, Tri airport goes from 0 snow depth to 13 inches depth on February 2nd-3rd 1996 but has M for snowfall so they don't include it. February 1998, no clue how they missed it. I don't remember it happening how its recorded at Tri, but amounts between 3.4-5.7 inches are recorded over a 4 day span, with something like 18.2 inches falling. But I guess they aren't counting it as one event? No idea honestly. I thought it was a dynamic cooling event that all fell in a shorter time. The Plateau had one a week later with 10-25 inches.
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