John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Man, that Euro run was banging the drum again. It's what this pattern was initially advertised as. Below 0 cold, a snow event, then suppression with snow in Savannah and Jacksonville.
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The NAM had slightly lower snow totals in the East 40 and north with about .05 less qpf. Just in the small run to run variation window.
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NAM is often on the amped side of things. I hope the rain/Mix in the far SE areas are not on any other models.
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Always late when snow is possible. 4:21 is my guess.
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Nice hit this time on the GFS. Anafrontal system with most of the moisture behind it. We've scored a few times that way lately. It was a staple in the 70s/80s. Doesn't work for Chattanooga, but most from the mid-state East pick up 3-6 inches that run. It's been moving forward in time. Also, as noted, the Euro is frigid late run, we'll see if that changes. Last night D15 was highs in the 10s and lows near or just below 0.
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I actually do sleep a few hours a day, but when snow is in the air I don't feel sleepy!
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The Euro came in dry/south. It's the lowest end model for us currently. As I talked about yesterday, it did this last year in a similar set up and at best was about 60-65 percent of what actually fell.
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The UKIE increased QPF a decent amount vs 00z. Hopefully the increasing qpf trend holds.
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The Canadian suite has had it particularly rough.
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Still snowing here as well. No model showed anything last night and today, the NAM 3K was giving some of us 1/2 to 1 inch or so outside the mountains for tonight.
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The RGEM was pretty good here with that. Much better than the NAM which had no frozen here. I got .2 ice and I think the rgem had .18 here 24 hrs out.
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Be like me and just stay awake 24/7 during snow season.
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ICON increased totals by around an inch forum wide basically vs 0z.
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0z Euro Ai increased qpf by about .1 most areas.
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Took a step north in the Western 2/3rds of the forum area. Hopefully that's the start of a trend back towards a better northern edge of the precip field.
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NAM is coming in more robust than the 12z suite.
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BNA joins MEG with a winter storm watch across it's entire CWA for 4-7 inches, with isolated 8 inch amounts.
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Didn't expect it at all, but it's coming a steady light snow shower.
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The EPS also had more QPF/better snow mean. We're about to the end of their use though.
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Yes, around .10 qpf more for most that run vs 18z.
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Canadian suite is slower like the others were. Every model is now about the same with QPF at 0z, euro pending. The hope is that they don't get any worse. It would still be a nice 3 to 5 inches for most of us.
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Canadian finally ran and joined the less qpf camp. RGEM is running as well. I expect it will too.
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These come north 95 percent of the time, and usually it's to our detriment. Hopefully it manages to in this case too, but for the better. If things are getting worse at this time tomorrow I'll have my towel in hand, ready to toss it in.
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It wasn't great for mby but it nearly missed the whole forum at 12z.
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The UKIE is light years better than it's 12z disaster that was the first shot fired in the bad runs today.
