John1122

ICON looks fairly similar to the RGEM so far.

RGEM ended slightly better than 0z. Much better thermals and no crazy secondary low traveling from Alabama to WVA.

RGEM cold, but dryish so far. To get the juice of the NAM, you have to have the insane secondary low that develops and is a plateau runner (literally never even seen that before in all my years of model viewing)

12z Euro Ai Copy/Paste of every run the last 5 days. .4 to .7 QPF, area wide sub-freezing temps and 850s.

06z suite so far. HRRR almost no freezing rain, issues along the GA border in the East. Everyone from the Plateau/Eastern Rim gets some totals cut by sleet. SE areas are dry slotted and have less QPF overall. Even with the sleet 40 and north gets 5-8 inches with N Miss and N Bama doing well in the mid and west areas. 12k NAM a slightly worse version of the HRRR. Big time ZR in the central valley of East Tennessee 3k NAM all the problems of the 12k but magnified. Big dry slot, mixing issues for all. East of 75, especially east of 81 and south of 40 in Eastern areas aren't great. 1-2 inches of snow. .15 to .25 freezing rain in those areas. ZR is an issue south of 40 all the way to Nashville. But Plateau and West still manage 3-6 inches of snow.

It's frustrating, for sure. The 12k NAM is super QPF heavy for everyone almost. 1 inch of precip in Knox, about .5 is snow, .3 is freezing rain, .2 is sleet and there's a little rain in there too.

The HRRR is much better than the NAM 12/3k. Didn't help the counties in the far SE/E but was better for everyone else than either NAM.

Titanic dry slot on the NAM 3k. Mixing. Mountain rain issues etc. The works basically. All the hi-res American models are having those issues now. 3k is bad for anywhere in East Tennessee, especially so East of 81 or south of 40.

03z RAP is amped with the Apps low. SE/Polk gets screwed but it's way out at range so I don't expect it to be great.

EURO sucked for me that run, but no mixing issues once again for Tennessee. It's on the weak edge still of all the models.

UKIE around the same qpf, all snow in Tennessee.

Canadian. I think it went up around an inch or 1.5 in areas along 40.

7 inches here, it was an epic front end thump that switched to rain and 33 degrees.

GFS was basically a reprint of 18z. Maybe more snow around Knoxville. Heavy sleet in Chattanooga but several inches of snow falls there too.

December of 81 was a good bit colder and had a big snow just before Christmas. It was dry, about 60 percent of normal precip.

18z AI Euro just finished a bit ago. QPF up, no mixing/amping issues.

It was one of our most severe winters. I had a day with a below zero high and some negative teens for lows.

That date in January of 1982 kicked off a week of cold, snowy weather, that finally was capped off by the massive ice storm of 1982.

In addition to that crazy NAM run last year, the other models in the NAM nest didn't agree with it. Obviously it was badly wrong.

This is from last January when the NAM was about 48-60 hours out and it suddenly decided to have East Tennessee in the 50s in a dry slot after it made a jarring NW jump.

I'll be surprised if that HRRR run is correct at 48 hours. UT swings pretty wildly beyond hour 12 or so on it's 18 hour runs at times.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see that 6 inch area get bigger.

All good on the Euro. Not much for mixing or downsloping issues.

I still go out walking when it's snowing/snowy. Light snow still falling here. Snow has fallen Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and today this week and I should get at least 3 more inches Friday and Saturday. That's an old school winter week.