John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The HRRR being colder raised Chattanooga from 3.9 to 4.6 that run.
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It was still a big time run of the HRRR (at range, use caution) but it was a little lower with QPF.
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The HRRR looks like it's going to slip the low just on the NC side of the Apps.
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HRRR looks flatter/less QPF will be likely this run, but its a bit colder and just about a county tier further south with sleet so far.
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The Canadian/Euro/UKIE all have .4ish or less along and north of 40 in the East. The middle camp has .5 to .8ish. The NAM has over an inch.
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Euro remains in the colder but very flat/low QPF in the East camp, the Canadian models are in this camp. The NAM is the amped camp. The HRRR/GFS/RAP/ICON and a few NAM nest products are in the middle camps between those two.
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Perhaps the NAM can't get the Plateau cutter out of it's system until PowellVolz arrives.
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I'll also add this, the wpc noted there would be areas where heavy banding would set up that just can't be seen by models at range.
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Hi-Res models can really overemphasize terrain features at times. Their resolution is extremely high and sees them all clearly and will really lean into them. They show huge downsloping off Cross Mountain here frequently and I've never seen it verify to the extent hi-res models do.
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The NAM is a Plateau runner. It's builds a stronger high by a smidgen and cuts the lp up the Plateau. I knew the HRRR would be big when the RAP was.
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06z Euro was basically a carbon copy of 0z. Its generally 3 to 6 inches for most of us. More to the west as it continues to lose punch as it heads east. It remains on the low side qpf wise. Lower that the AI version and the EPS.
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Currently 13 degrees and still snowing. Picked up just under 1/2 inch overnight.
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It's basically everything vs the NAM currently.
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The 9z 51hr RAP will factor into the 12z 48 hour HRRR.
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The RAP looks just like the GFS. It pops the low in Alabama but it goes up the east side of the Apps and we get dumped on.
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Gonna see what the RAP throws out. I believe it's the seed for the HRRR, who honestly wasn't too far off the GFS except for the bit of sleet.
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That, I don't know. I've never thought that time frames would make a difference, but that's possible. I'm trying to remember what resolution the GFS runs at now. The Euro is 9k, the ICON 13.
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To me, the ICON is the middle ground between the Euro and GFS. The Euro is dry, the GFS loaded. The ICON is close to the middle. RGEM is as well. That's discounting the oddball NAM runs for now.
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GFS was fantastic.
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It's actually a pretty decent model for these set ups. It's got a higher resolution than the GFS at 13k, not dissimilar to the NAM 12k
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I just generally have very little faith in the NAM beyond 24 hours, even less so when it's throwing out something pretty wild that no other model is showing. In the end, they basically have until around 7pm tonight to make a decision, as that is 12 hours before they think this starts in Chattanooga. I'd expect they'll make a decision after the 12z runs come in.
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The biggest thing to me is, even those are massively impactful winter storms because they have so much freezing rain/sleet/snow. It's a winter storm for most regardless. Heck, they even said my area was basically good for 4-6 inches regardless and didn't put the warning out here.
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They generally only ever use the American models and the Euro. Never really the Canadian/ICON etc.
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ICON was a better version of the RGEM. So far it's HRRR/RGEM/ICON vs NAM 12k/NAM 3k.
