John1122

I'm going to hope the Canadian/RGEM is right with this weekend's system and we can at least get some 1-2 inch totals around the area.

Sometimes you just have to laugh at seeing the Gulf Coast with multiple snow and ice threats while we sit here high and dry.

Well the Euro just gave Florida a shot at a record snowfall. Tallahassee gets 2.5-3 inches, their record snowfall is 2 inches in 1958. Their biggest snowfall since then is .2 inches.

If we are -10 on January 31st and only had the one decent snow event, that's gonna be tough. The Euro was frigid at the end again, just after another rain event.

We've somehow went from snow and teens to rain and cutting. Really hoping the RGEM scores a Sunday coup.

Canadian went south. The GFS very north. Gonna be a long ride into next week. Hopefully the Canadian is correct about Sunday.

GFS with one of the craziest runs I've seen it spit out. Random spots of I assume, dynamically driven heavy snow in the middle of heavy rain.

GFS coming in with nearly a cutter with a front end thump.

I hope it's correct. It'd been slaughtering the American models in the short range this winter.

The ICON stepped into the GFS camp, held back energy and the second wave was getting up into our area at the end of the run.

ICON significantly north vs 12z when it was way down there.

18z EPS also creeps further NW.

We're still a good ways out and the biggest NW trends usually fall inside the final 48 hours. I wouldn't give up yet. I'm still somewhat worried about a cutter or runner.

18z Euro continued the N trend.

The GFS holds energy back I believe and let's it go later in the week. The other models bring it all out at once. That's why it is showing two possible storms I believe.

The GFS is likely wrong at this range. The ens often kinda trend more and more towards op runs but always show a muted version. The last 24 hours of GEFS runs show the precip shield trucking north.

We have the historic snow and ice events thread down the page!

The Euro AI crept NW again at 12z. 4+ for a lot of East TN that run. 2-3 for the Mid-State.

It's one of the most severe winter storms the Tennessee Valley ever saw. It stretched back into West Tennessee more so than the blizzard. That event and '85 were the times I've seen -20s imby.

Unfortunately, that's what happened in 2018. Gulf coast snow while we were dry and then a nice juicy rainer as soon as the cold unlocked. In December 1982 it did that three times. Cutter, below zero cold with flurries, then cutter, back below zero etc.

The next 10 days will see this winter go down as either epic, or an epic disappointment. We basically have all our chips in and a face card showing, but so does the dealer. Do we flip an ace? Do we go bust?

The Euro has 3 systems that track along the Gulf but are mostly suppressed still. Its in bed with the Canadian in that the Canadian had a few waves but obviously less suppressed than the Euro.

The Euro is just firing shot after shot.

Feb 2nd-4th 1996 is as close as we've come to it in January in my memory. It's actually fairly rare to get more than 12 inches in a single January storm. Those seem to come more in February and even March or November.

There were 14-foot drifts here during the blizzard of '93. I used to have the local paper that showed houses with snow over the roof that was published two weeks after the blizzard. I still have the paper from a few days after, when a woman from Ohio talks about having moved here recently and she had to go to a neighbors house after her electric went out during the storm and that she had to walk across snow up to her shoulders to get across the highway to their house. It's still the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Flakes the size of dimes during the day, and we got 11 inches of snow in one 3 hour period from around 8am til 11 am.