John1122

Congrats 

3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I just want to cash out on the 18z Icon. Too good to be true, I know. 

It's literally been that exact same run from like 140 hours til now around 70.

The RGEM is rocking Knox area as it's right on the edge of the mix/zr/sleet. 

Yes, the RGEM is about 2 counties north of where it was at 12z with its qpf field. North Georgia went from .4 qpf to .1.

RGEM looks a little north of 12z.

Right now the hi-res snow footprint is much larger than the global footprint. The NAM snow footprint there on the 12k and 3k is 300+ miles north to south. The globals are about half or less of that.

The 12k shifted about 25-30 miles and let the precip run further east as well as south. Not as heavy in the heaviest areas but more widespread vs 12z.

3k shift about 15-20 miles south with it's snow. North Knox gets 4-5 inches.

2 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I feel Chattanooga might get the shaft on this one… nothing new tho


.

It's model chaos but you're in as good a spot as any as of now. Maybe better with the Euro on your side currently.

3k is a more robust version of it's 12z run. Tons of mixing issues in the far eastern areas. 

12k is decently SE of it's 12z run and has more qpf. Knox County is a battle ground on there with snow and freezing rain.

I wouldn't be shocked if the SE trend continues. The map is very similar to the SRF mean map.

3k NAM has a similar orientation of the precip from 12z, it just has much much more QPF.

It's stepping slightly SE this run.

The 3k looks a little better/colder than the 12k.

It's depicting rain over southern Knox at 39 but the temp is 29 and the Skew T says freezing rain. Not sure why pivotal sees that as rain.

It's looking like it's going to remain in the NW/amped camp this run. 

The NAM is more robust with qpf out west so far.

The NAM is much more aggressive with the precip shield early in the run, vs 12z.

East Tennessee looks really cold through the entire HRRR. There is probably downsloping showing up along the foothills. Looks like Knoxville is 29 at the end of it's run. Other models are showing more of a warm push though.

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Well SREF plumes should be out. Any one want to venture a NAM guess based on those? 

The SREF mean is a slightly more south version of the NAM.

The Tennessee Georgia game was like the models. We started out way ahead. Then against all logic, we fell behind, now let's hope we come back at the end. 

16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

FWIW.  That one at the end of the run (if you look at 500) has no chance to be wintry…..  should cut straight to the Midwest.  Would make sense we relax after the next week.

When we start out that cold we often get a front end thump before it rains. Happened several times in 2015. 

The SREF is showing a NAMish solution which makes sense, as they share some DNA I believe.

I foolishly thought we finally had a simple set up that would work for most of us. But it's Tennessee, so of course not. Models can nail snow in Texas or Oklahoma a month out. Here 6 hours out they struggle. 

There's a low in Canada over the top. When it's weaker the Euro is further north. When it's stronger, further south. Yesterday at 12z it was 986 and most of Tennessee got a good run. Today it's 981 and half of Tennessee gets blanked.

We are approaching the "something's gotta give" stage of modeling. These tracks for the precip shield are well over 150 miles apart 36 hours before it's starting in the western areas. They'll either converge or one set is riding off the cliff into oblivion.

Not sure which is more SE the GFS or Euro.