John1122

The 39 hour rap is running.  Looks like it will snow from Texas to Tennessee on it as well. 

Lots of sleet on the Canadian. Still manages to put down 2-6 inches of snow over a good portion of the Valley. 

1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019120900&fh=48

That's some pretty heavy snow showing up!

Hi-Res GFS was a little larger with snow coverage than the 18z run.  Its filled the Nashville heat island from .8 to 2 inches in the last 12 hours of runs. Also expanded the snow more in the Eastern areas south of 40 vs earlier runs. 

Saw that Robert (WX South) was feeling pretty confident in a few inches coming down fast in the forum region.  Mentioned that most of the accumulation would be on grass/decks etc.  But seems confident rain will change to heavy snow from Arkansas/Mississippi into Kentucky and Virgina.  

Clown map for it. Using my standard 33 percent reduction, this would still be a nice event for most areas of the valley region. 

Huge GFS run. Hits every one in the forum except it blanks Hamilton Co/NE Alabama.  

Normally the NAM will start to correct its wonky stuff within 36-48 hours of the event. Hi-res backed off about 10-20 percent on totals as well. 

Just now, AMZ8990 said:

  Nice run for sure, especially when the EURO is on board with it as well.  Nice trends on most models today 

At this point it's either going to be an across the board model bust, or some widespread white ground.  Not much middle ground with this one.  

That 18z GFS was its biggest run to date. Really increased totals for Arkansas and North Miss into West Tenn vs 12z.  

Went ahead and started a thread for it. If nothing else it can be a future "how much do the models suck, even close in" thread.

Hi res NAM, not as bullish, especially over the mid and western valley. Still snowing far east at 60.

NAM is still churning. Odd note, in SWCC in an area of around 3000-3500 feet it manages a snowhole.

We now stand around 48 hours from snow falling in the area according to models. Anafrontal moisture will linger and allow the colder air to catch up, but how much cold and how much moisture remains the eternal question in our region. According to most model suites, plenty of both, but even though we are 48 hours out, models have been particularly bad at sniffing out actual snow events the last two or three years. So even with multiple model consensus that accumulating snow will happen, at best we can say "who knows?" at this point regarding how much, if any accumulates.  

Right now, Southern Arkansas to SEKY/SWVA look to be in play and the NAM is just namming it's heart out, having just delivered another juicy run for the region, especially mid and western areas of the Valley.

WFO in the area remain rightfully skeptical, but are beginning to mention post frontal snow being possible, though in far less amounts than models are willing to churn out. Will it come to pass or go poof? Only the next 48-72 hours will tell.

Still, our third potential event and it's not even solar winter yet, so things seem to be off to a good start. 

MRX latest disco, less surface cooling but also less 800mb warm nose. Says that cold will have a hard time getting into the valley from the Plateau, but expects a change from rain to snow rather than any mixed precip for any length of time. Still going with only impacts at elevation NE/SWVA.

As a note, MRX has made a top 10 snow events list on it's page for Tri/Knox/Chatt. I appreciate the effort, even though it's laughably wrong in many cases. I think it has my area in the Nov 1952 event with something like 3 inches. For most of my young life prior to the blizzard of 1993, I'd heard of that event as being the king of snow events, described as well over the knees and over bumpers on cars by a multitude of adults.  Neither the Feb 1996 event or the dynamic cooling monster of 1998 are mentioned at Tri. Even though snow depth at Tri goes from 0 to 13 inches from 1-31 to 2-2. It lists 7 snowfalls of 13 inches or less in the top 10. I would have sworn the 1998 event put down 16-24 inches in that area as well. It's a good 10 inches off for a lot of areas for the 93 blizzard as well.

The Euro is a nice event from Memphis to Sevier County and basically everyone 60-100 miles north and south of 40.  Not elevation driven particularly. Some of the better totals show up in the high spots, but also nice totals show up around the Tennessee/Miss border areas with some 3 inch dollops. 

• The NAM is namming us all again for the most part with wide spready heavy post frontal snow. The Hi-Res looks like it would follow as well, it's nailing the western valley with heavy snow at the end of it's run with the rain/snow transition approaching Nashville at 60 and snow pouring in Memphis and Clarksville.
•  
• MRX is all out though, mentions anafrontal moisture but says wintry precip won't result in any impacts outside of the Smokies 

17 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I'd be happy with a dusting right now

I'm pretty happy with it being in the air during December but really would love to see some of the more optimistic scenarios play out like the Canadian. As you mentioned, a few years ago at this range if the Euro put that out OHX would probably be talking winter weather advisories in their am update. Now you have to see the white of the flake practically before you can make a call like that.

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Just not to confuse the text above,the total would be around 1.5",nothing more

The Euro maps are pretty close to that. Looks like it shows 1.5-2 around BNA. Just east and SE of Davidson towards Murfreesboro looks close to 2.5-3. 

Bullish Euro there for the mid Valley.  Enough model agreement within a short time (less than 3 days now)  to start a thread for it imo, even if it doesn't work out.  

The latest round model blend consensus pretty much gives the Plateau to Western highland rim as its key areas. But at least one of the  models puts about the entire Valley  in play to some extent.  Also doesn't seem overly elevation dependent per the Euro, the heaviest snow in the area falls over both the NW Plateau but also in NW Alabama up through middle Tennessee right into the lower elevations in Nashville. 

7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

It's going to depend for us how fast the thermals drop catching the long wave through,the EURO 18Z says it will,hate cold air chasing moisture

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 52.7 42.2 03003 62 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 55.1 44.4 44.0 39.9 04004 1 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 44.1 38.8 38.8 37.5 13004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 45.1 38.4 44.6 41.2 17007 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 57.7 44.6 57.8 44.4 18010 0.00 0.00 71 MON 00Z 09-DEC 59.1 52.7 52.8 44.1 16008 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 54.1 52.5 54.1 49.4 17010 0.01 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 55.7 53.7 55.8 53.8 18011 0.02 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 63.2 55.8 63.4 53.9 20014 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 64.2 60.6 61.0 58.6 21010 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.9 60.2 59.3 23008 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.3 49.3 49.0 48.8 34008 0.16 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 49.0 37.2 37.2 36.4 34007 0.34 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 37.2 33.3 33.3 26.8 35006 0.22 0.09 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 33.3 31.4 31.5 20.3 34006 0.05 0.05 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.5 26.0 25.9 16.5 34005 0.00 0.00 0

 

You and me both. It used to be fairly common to see rain changing to accumulating snow here but not so much in the last decade or so.  

Hi-res GFS which these hi res models sometimes key too much on terrain and heat islands. But it sure sees the Nashville heat island here. 

5 years ago if models were showing what they are now under 100 hours out, I'd be 90 percent sold that we were going to get accumulating snow.  These past two years have made me believe its 90/10 in the no snow direction regardless of what models spit out within even 72 hours of an event. 

Canadian not as crazy as 12z, but still healthy for most of the Valley, 1-3 over most of the region with a few heavier dollops.  I'd take a blend of operational and hi res models from tonignt and be content. 

48 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You get it to play,like i said it's a new tool i got, so trying to figure out the do and dont's,but basically it shows a half inch for most and a 1" in the higher elevations

Once I looked at it closer and watched a few more timea, it looked like it was showing .5/1 inch totals every few hours for several periods? Looked like parts of mid and West Tennessee would have gotten 1-3 at least there.