John1122

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 

When averaging that many years it only takes a few extremes to really mess with blend. I recommend going through all the winters you listed in the warm NOV. There were some really good winters. There were also a few extremely warm winters that skew the mean.

 

Point is if we have a warm NOV it is not cancel winter. 

Actually, the 40 total winters in the past 70 years is a pretty big statistical pool and and the 500mb pattern in each set is glaring and it isn't swayed by one or two winters in the set. NOAA sets new climatological norms based on 30 years. If we have a warm November we might not lose, but we're down 10 going into the 4th quarter and the other team is playing good defense. That big -PNA that shows up after warm Novembers is the worst possible winter pattern here, we can make almost every other pattern work if we can get cooperation in that region, but if the PNA is deeply negative, we're going to have warm SW flow and cutters as a rule during those winters. It shows up in the final snow tallies as well, 7 of the 10 snowiest winters in the region came following years with BN Novembers. Including the legendary 1959-60 winter, 1984-85 and 1995-1996.. On the flip side, 7 of Knoxville's 10 least snowy winters came after above average Novembers. 

The anomaly in the PAC NW during the warm November is pretty significant when averaged over a 20 different years. It's hard to move the bar that much from average over a long period of years. But those years appear to feature a rampaging -PNA which would lead to there being significant western troughs in those winters. There are a few great winters in there and there are a few clinkers in the cold Novembers but by far we want the cold November 500mb pattern vs the warm one. 

19 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

2014 is a bad example. 2014 was 100% because of recurring typhoon Nuri bottoming out in the Bering Sea. Caused a monster ridge & trough. 

But NOV 1977, 1986, 2009 were all torch NOV.  And all of those were modoki winters & 2 of them cold & snowy ones. 

Can't use the word "never" when it comes to weather.

There are exceptions, as there always are in any kind of analog. But the majority of warmer than 48 degree Novembers in Knoxville resulted in less than stellar to down right terrible winters.

These are the two 500mb vs normal for DJF from the top 20 warmest Novembers since 1948 vs the top 20 coldest since 1948. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ugh.  Good catch.  Our numbers at TRI are not even reliable anymore regarding snowfall(so much missing data on well-known storms), even during ongoing events but especially for historical numbers.  Even though we are in different regions and elevations, I actually rely on your numbers more because they don't change.  I haven't even looked at our temp numbers....prob would just make me mad.  What is nice about this forum is that we can record information that will not get altered for whatever reason.

The NWS numbers are completely unreliable, especially snowfall numbers. This was the first I'd noticed that much temperature fudging. There's a station near here in Newcomb. It recorded snowfall, rainfall and temp data for most of the the last 60 years or so until I believe 2012.  It held the state record for snowfall in 24 hours for the November 1952 storm with 22 inches, that stood until the Blizzard of 1993 and LeConte started having official recordings.  According to NWS records that station averages 2.5 inches of snowfall per year from 1951-2012. The stations in Jamestown and Tazewell are slightly further south and close in elevation, Tazewell averages 16.4 inches and Jamestown 18.2 inches over the same time period. They also claim Oneida, also in the same latitude/elevation range, only averaged 7.5 for that period. So they "lose" data and apparently just slap a 0 on the snowfall total for the day and plow ahead and average it out.

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Wish a single thread were made for Florence. Let's keep this thread for overall fall & winter pattern discussion if we could.

I know most are focused Florence right now & rightfully so. But holy moly on JMA Seasonal for DEC!! Average Oct, warm Nov. BUT DEC...robust -EPO, -NAO (blocking mostly around Davis Strait). Looks very similar to updated Euro:

The entire winter looks NUTS also. Look at 3 month first & you can change through individual OCT/NOV/DEC.

 

Then you can click on DEC-FEB mean on first page of link. Good stuff...if you like winter! Winter mean has robust -EPO, -NAO, -AO combo.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

November warmth is never a good sign for winter weather. If the mean temp in Knoxville for November is above 48 degrees, the winters are almost always lacking in snow/cold in this part of the valley at least. Not checked on the western valley but I imagine their results are similar. The new normal for Knox in the 1981-2010 climate cycle is 49 in November, thus a large number of very poor winter performances during that time. But when November has managed to come in below average, the winters have tended to be cold/snowy at some point. In 2014 the November mean temp averaged 41.6 at Knoxville (I recorded this number in the 2014 thread, and I went back and looked at the NWS official record and it's been changed to 43.2, no idea how it got almost 2 degrees warmer 4 years later.) and I talked about that in the winter pattern discussion. 2014-15 ended up being quite excellent for snow/cold. So pull for that to be wrong about November if you want the white stuff to pile up!

We are in fall and it's part of the weather that's happening in the future. So I don't have any issue personally with it being here. But maybe we need a short term thread and we can leave this the long term thread for beyond 5 days discussion? 

The Euro shift a little south/west again. Now has the heaviest rain in the Chattanooga area. Rain shield goes west of Nashville. Euro still has most areas from the Plateau and eastward getting tropical storm force gusts, some up to around 50mph outside the mountains. Some 50-70mph gusts in the mountains with hurricane force gusts at the highest peaks.

The rain lingers around from Sunday afternoon until finally clearing out on Wednesday on the Euro.

The 00z Euro brings the remnants a little further west and south than 12z. Rain shield stretches towards Nashville now, with 1.5-4 inches from Cookeville and points east. The mountains sap it quite a bit, 8-12 inches of rain on the eastern slopes of the Apps. 3-5 at the peak and falling as you move westward with the storm weakening. The Euro also brings some 35-50mph wind gusts across the area. There's a peak gust in the 90s over the mountains of western NC right along the border east of Erwin.

The GFS was still wacky but this time took the remnants well back over the Eastern Valley areas and it ends up in a similar position as the Euro.

I don't think the GFS will pull the coup on this one, especially the cat 5 hanging around off the coast from Friday until Monday morning.  That may technically be possible but it seems a very unlikely scenario.

The 12z Euro features possible flooding rains for the far eastern mountains and a general soaking rain for the rest of us. The extreme NETN/SWVA rain event from the 00z Euro was pretty much cut in half on qpf totals. Still 4-6 inches of rain predicted in those areas, but much better than the 8-12 inches the 00z was showing.

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I should add that if you can get your hands on the Euro monthly forecast(depicting each month), WxBell is very similar to those temps.  Not sure if they are correct, I generally have a hard time believing that winter begins early w El Nino winters and like the second half of winter idea...but, hey!  I'll have one of each of what they are having....

It may not start early because it seems to be stuck in a pattern of not doing so, but as long as it's not a strong or very strong Nino, December is fair game for winter going full bore. Look no further than 2009 to see it get rolling early. Many other years December was wintry with El Nino. 

I think recently we had some very warm fall/summers and a lot of latent heat was built up around the globe. Those caused winter to get started later than normal. I would love to see a November come in cooler than normal, after that we have a good shot at cold enough winter weather. Positives going into fall, we aren't in a drought. That alone should help fall not be overly hot. 

The oceans look more favorable this year than in a while. Seeing that much of the Atlantic basin below normal hasn't been common, it's usually kept a ton of hangover heat. It's that cool in the basin without upwelling from major tropical systems. Last year everything below the 45th was above average.

Plus the cold pool reaching the west coast across the central Pacific looks good for +PDO conditions.  We've seen how dominant it can be and often is for our weather pattern. It's a strong signal for below normal temps and above normal precip in the Southeast. 

Edit:

Tried to post sea surface map but it's having none of it. 

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

84-85  you posted on the other page was a developing Nina but in 1984 we had an early SSWE in Dec.Then into Jan we really felt the artic plunge with all time record lows for any date, for many places in the Valley

Yes, it was a legendary outbreak of both cold and snow for the entire region from Memphis to the Tri-Cities. That was with a QBO peaking downward in August and then rising quickly into winter. 2005-06 had a much later peak into late fall and was blazing hot in January. I wonder if there is as Carvers mentioned any relationship to QBO and SSWE? 

Looking back to the 1950s when the QBO was -10 or lower in DJF and checking the NAO status we find the following.

1956-57 it was -15, -13, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, mildly positive and mildly negative in DJF. This was at the end of the cycle.

1962-63 it was -15, -17, -16 DJF. The NAO was moderately negative each month. This was entering the negative cycle.

1965-66 it was -21, -21, -17 DJF. The NAO was positive, moderately negative, and moderately negative.  This was ending the cycle.

1970-71 it was -17, -11, and then +3 DJF. The NAO was negative, negative, neutral. This was ending the cycle. Also, keep in mind this was the 8th straight mostly -NAO winter in a row in the 1960s into 1970. The 60s were like a mini ice age here and the NAO was negative regardless of QBO phase.

1974-75 it was -22, -16, -15 DJF. The NAO was moderately positive, positive and negative DJF. This was the end of the cycle. 

1976-77 it was -11, -14, -15 DJF. The NAO was negative, negative and negative. This was beginning the cycle.

1979-80 it was -17, -11, -6 in DJF. The NAO was positive, negative, negative. This was the end of the cycle. The winters of the 1970s were also -NAO for the most part. I believe 6 of them averaged negative. The most negative NAO month was February 1978. Which happened during a winter of entirely +QBO with it climbing. 

1981-82 it was -12, -12, -14 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, negative, positive. It was beginning the cycle and the NAO got more positive as the QBO went more negative.

1983-84 it was -11, -10, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, positive, positive. This was the beginning of the cycle. That cycle ended in November of 84 and was neutral when the great cold wave of 85 hit. The lowest NAO average of the 1980s came in a month when the QBO was neutral.

1986-87 it was -10, -11, -10 in what was a weak downward valley. The NAO was positive, negative, negative during this one. It was the beginning of the cycle.

1991-92 it was -13, -14, -14 in DJF. The NAO was mildly positive, mildly negative, mildly positive those 3 months. This was the beginning of the phase.

It didn't fall back below -10 the rest of the 1990s. The most negative NAOs of the 1990s came when the QBO was very mildly negative, around -3. The only winter with a DJF with the -NAO each month features a neutral QBO of around +1 to -1.

2000-01 DJF was -14, -15, -15 DJF. The NAO was basically neutral all 3 winter months. This was the beginning of the cycle.

2005-06 it was -25, -18, -11 in DJF. The NAO was neutral, positive, negative for the 3 months. It was ending the cycle, the NAO actually got more negative after the cycle died out. It was almost -2 in March 06 after the QBO had hit neutral.

2007-08 it was -20, -12, -5. The NAO was neutral/mildly positive all 3 months. This was the ending of the cycle.

2009-10 it was -16, -16, -17. The NAO was negative all three months. This was the start of the cycle.

2011-12 it was -16, -16, -15 DJF. The NAO was extremely positive, positive, and neutral. This was the start of the cycle.

2014-15 it was -25, -26, -28 in DJF. The NAO was moderately positive DJF. This was the beginning of the cycle. The Pacific crushed the Atlantic signals that winter.

2017-18 -18, -19, -19 DJF. The NAO was positive, positive, and positive for the winter. This was also the beginning of the cycle. We were cold in January but once again the Pacific drove the bus. 

  In those 18 winters of the most negative QBO we find that in 31 of the 54 months the NAO was neutral or positive. In 23 months it was negative.  Overall out of 187 winter months since 1956-57, the NAO was negative for 68 of them and neutral or positive for 119 of them with a large number of those months taking place in the 1960s and 70s.

It may fortell blocking, but it doesn't seem to fortell cold/warm winters. Probably the one thing I did notice was that in winters that it was negative and cold, it tended to be when it was dropping from positive to negative rather than late in its negative cycle.  But I'm not sure anything could be inferred from that because as I mentioned, sometimes it's deeply negative and we torch. Sometimes it's positive and we freeze. The opposite of those seem to occur as well.  We are fridgid when it's negative and warm when it's positive.  

I would have thought 2006 would have been extremely cold if it was going to lead to blocking. It was dropping into record low territory through fall 2005.

Instead of blocking in the N Atl we had the SE ridge and the lowest temp in Knoxville for the whole month of January was 24.  There are often days when it's not that warm for the high in January with good blocking in place.  

I'll look more closely at sensible weather when it's negative vs positive.  But in 1959-60 there was incredible Atlantic blocking when it was positive.  I believe that 1977-78 was also a blocky time in the Atlantic and it was positive. There are other examples of it being negative with no blocking to speak of as well, like 2005-06. 

So there are certain signals that seem to be much more of a guarantee regarding sensible weather here.  PNA/AO/NAO trump all other signals in my opinion, including ENSO. The PDO is also a strong signal to see what the weather will do here as well. The PDO trumped a super Nino and a +NAO a couple years ago and delivered enough cold to produce savage winter weather. 

There are other signals that seem to have less impact or at least less is known about their impact. I feel like the QBR is one of them.  

Looking at the QBO reveals extremely mixed results heading into winter. 1984-1985 was a negative summer that went neutral to positive in winter. As a matter of fact, it was -27.10 in August of 1984. A record low at the time, after being -25.39 in July of 1984, also a record low.  In 2005-06 that record was broken, but then it peaked down in November at -29 after having set a record the prior month at -28, it managed to stay in the -25 range for December. That was not a good winter for snow/cold lovers. It was actually one of, if not the warmest winters I recall.  Both 1984-85 and 2005-2006 were weak La Nina years. But absolutely opposite in the intensity of winter. 

In 1959-1960 it was positive the entire winter. In 1995-1996 it was very weakly negative. In 1977-1978 it flipped from negative to positive in summer and stayed positive in winter. 

So to me, it seems to have little effect on the intensity of the winter we experience. We can be extremely mild while it's deeply negative and we can be extremely cold and snowy while it's positive. Then the opposite seems to occur too with about the same frequency. So I'm not sure it's a particularly useful tool to try and make a winter forecast. 

November can be very key though. We virtually always have a cold/snowy winter if it's the temps average below normal in November. 

I was reading some information last night about the winters of 100 to 200 years ago in the region. It's incredible. 10 inches of snow on May 20th on the Plateau with feet in the Smokies, and I believe 2 inches in Knoxville. Snow fell in Tennessee but didn't stick in June 1865. The high temperature on July 4th in 1816 was likely in the 40s in Knoxville. There were multiple 15+ inch snow events in the valley region but there were no official records. Only newspaper reports. 

Throughout the 1800s and into the Early 1900s the Tennessee river would freeze over in Knoxville and ice flows from the Clinch and other tributaries would flow into Knoxville. At one point the river froze so solidly that it was 12 inches thick in the middle and people were driving wagons across it. It snowed so regularly in December Knoxville had a sleigh festival on a yearly basis.

In more recent times there was the wild November 1952 snow storm that effected Corbin Ky to Scott County to the Tri-Cities down through Knoxville to Athens. I was reading an old newspaper report from then that said a man who lived in Powell worked in Kingston for TVA. He left Kingston with no snow on the ground and arrived in Knoxville to find 12 inches in West Knox county and 20 inches by the time he arrived in Powell.  It was an incredible cut-off from no snow to over a foot of snow. 

There was the crazy 1951 event from the Plateau west where that area was buried in snow and ice, but the Knoxville to Tri-Cities area only received .2 inches of ice and didn't get nearly as cold as Nashville.  Tri-Cities was 60 degrees on Jan 31st, Knoxville, barely west of Tri was 44, and west of Knoxville it was in the 20s and 30s with freezing rain, sleet and snow all day. The next day it was 62 at Tri, a midnight high of 45 in Knoxville and 22 in Nashville.  Areas from the Plateau west ended up with 3-5 inches of solid ice compacted on the ground and temperatures 20-30 degrees colder than the far eastern valley areas.

We had similar weather a few years ago here in the February blitz but not quite to the extreme of that event. I enjoy looking back through old news paper articles to see this stuff. 

If we can keep it moderate to weak, that will bode much better for winter, especially early winter. Looks like a decent bet that it will land in that range. 

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Speaking of 2010,this was the year the bowling ball came through.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/graphics/2009_2010/jan28_30_2010.html

That was a great event for the whole state basically. I was lucky enough to stay all snow and ended up with 13 inches. I believe the central valley and central plateau of East Tennessee had some major mixing issues with freezing rain and sleet.

In reply to Carvers post in the spring/summer pattern thread about El Nino being back loaded. I've seen both front loaded and back loaded.  2009-2010 started fast and furious and never let up until late February.  

A couple years ago it was super back loaded and we got bombed in February. 

Here are some of our Nino Decembers.

Early December of 1957 it snowed 3 inches and got to -7 degrees then warmed up later in the month. Strong Nino

December of 1958 it was frigid, around 5 degrees below normal for the month, lots of lows in the 10s, snowed just over 2 inches for the month. Very dry with only 1.5 inches of rain total.

December of 1963 it was super cold for December. 8 days in the single digits for lows, peaking down at -5 on 12-19. It snowed on 14 days of the month, the last 10 days were pure winter. 7 inches of snow on 12-22, 8 inches on 12-23, 7 inches on 12-31.

December of 1965 it was a drought. It was average to above on temps. Snowed a couple of times, December 1st it was 9 degrees.  Less than 1 inch of rain for the month. Strong Nino

December of 1968 it was below normal on temps, snowed on 8 days, 2 inches was the biggest event on 12-4-68. 10 days with lows in the 10s, highest temp was 57. Coldest day was 24/13 with snowshowers on 12-15-68.

December of 1969, which was a weak Nino, was cold with a huge snow event on Christmas day with 8 inches falling. Snow fell on 13 days of the month. 

December of 1972 was a torch, around 5 degrees above normal for the month. There were still a few cold/snow showery days but overall wet with 10 inches of rain, and warm.

December of 1976 was cold, snowed on 5 different days, snowed 2 inches on 12-21, snowed an inch on the 29th, the temp shot p to 50 and it changed to rain on the 30th, but it switched back to snow and snowed 1.5 inches on the backside of the system. 12-31 was the coldest day at 23-2.

December of 1977 was about 2 degrees below average overall and it snowed on 10 different days. None were more than .5 inches though. 

December of 1979 was mild, 2 degrees above average but snow fell on 4 different days of the month, also less than .5 inches each event. This was a weak Nino and it's a rareish one that was above normal in December.

December of 1982 was very warm, around 6 degrees above normal with 8 inches of rain. We had a 5 inch snow during the month though. Very strong Nino.

December of 1986 had a few days of snowshowery weather and was around 1 degree below normal overall for the month. 

This general pattern continues, if the Nino is strong or very strong, December is probably going to be AN and either very wet or very dry. If the Nino is weak or moderate, it's often game on in December, but not always.

This is one of those days where you can look at the radar and see the plateau and mountains. The rain just developed and is sitting over both areas.

Wide spread downed trees and power outages here. Power is still out in portions of the county. Rained 1.75 inches and I'd guess peak winds at 60-70mph. 

Extremely heavy t-storm passing my area as we speak. Winds are probably gusting to 60mph, I'd estimate the rainfall at 3+ inches per hour at this rate.  Looks like a bow echo on radar.

Just had a very high wind/heavy rain storm roll through. Winds justified the severe warning. Sideways sheets like you'd see in a hurricane, was hard to hold the car in the road from the wind.

Tornado warned cell in Lincoln/Casey Co in SE Kentucky. The storm will approach the I-75 corridor over the next hour.

Quote

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
708 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYC045-137-202330-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-180720T2330Z/
Lincoln KY-Casey KY-
708 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
LINCOLN AND EAST CENTRAL CASEY COUNTIES...

At 708 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles west of Bee Lick, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

It's been like Hawaii here the past few weeks. There's been about 6 days with rainbows and multiple doubles.

The SPC reasoning for the moderate risk area. It's crazy that there's an excessive heat warning right where the storms are getting fired up in Arkansas and West Tennessee. Memphis is supposed to have a HI around 115 today. I'm not sure I remember areas having excessive heat warnings and enhanced/moderate risk outlooks for severe at the same time.

Quote

Lower MI to Mid-South and TN Valley...
   Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms should develop in this
   corridor, perhaps evolving into multiple clusters or bands at
   different times from midday through at least late evening.  The
   environment across the enhanced and moderate risk areas will be the
   most favorable for supercells, bow echoes and organized convective
   clusters, with tornadoes, damaging winds and large/damaging hail all
   possible. 

   Tornado and significant/damaging-hail probabilities for now are
   maximized across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South
   regions where seasonably steep lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km), very
   strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE 4000-6000 J/kg), rich moisture
   (70s F surface dew points, mean mixing ratios 17-20 g/kg), and
   strong deep shear 50-65 kt northwesterly effective shear vectors)
   are expected to juxtapose.  Tornado probabilities also have been
   increased/expanded in two directions:
   1.  Northward across the eastern IN/western OH corridor along and
   near an eastward-moving warm front, where thunderstorms developing
   in the warm sector or along the cold front may have time to evolve
   into mature supercells before interacting with the warm frontal
   zone's vorticity-rich, low-LCL environment.
   2.  Westward across the Mid-South and northeastern AR, where some
   discrete supercell modes are possible in a high-CAPE,
   adequate-shear, high-PW environment before upscale evolution occurs
   to more of a clustered mode and wind threat.  In that regard, some
   potential also exists for activity developing near either cold front
   in KS or southwestern MO to grow upscale near an already-observed
   moist axis, evolving into a southeastward-moving MCS with damaging
   wind over parts of the Ozarks region, and perhaps reaching parts of
   the lower Mississippi Valley.

The only tornado in my area in recent times was a July f3. Gonna be keeping an eye out for this one.