John1122

Also, there are papers about how heavily the EPS and weeklies rely on the MJO for their forecasts. If its handling the MJO incorrectly it likely has major long range consequences. 

From what I understand we get our coolest temps when the mjo is low amplitude or even in the COD of each phase. 

EPS doesn't look awful later in the run. At some point it will likely start reeling things in, seems like there's always a 6-10 day head fake with models ending patterns. The cold in the northern Hempisphere is over North America. There's intermittent ridging in the SW. There's ridging that looks like it is heading into Alaska. The SE ridge is blown away.  I used to like a cold Alaska because it often ended up sliding down into North Dakota/Minnesota and then here.

Apparently I was wrong about MJO lag times, or just read a paper wrong about them. We will probably then have a brief cooling period as the MJO passes 8-1-2 then warm back up when it leaves. The paper I read suggested 12-14 day lag times for MJO effects to propagate downstream but I guess I read it wrong or it's wrong.

The big +AO spike predicted also doesn't spell the end of the world. The last time it got that high was I believe late December 2015. January and part of February 2016 rocked for parts of the area. It was the last even remotely decent winter we've had.

19 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Is that good?

It would be great. 8-1-2 would likely see winter return 5-15 days after the mjo hit those areas. The EPS/weeklies will likely be cold if it sees the mjo in 8-1-2.

Just now, tnweathernut said:

It absolutely was.  We saw 2-3" rates for 7+ hours.   The forecast that day was laughable as the event unfolded.  Looks like the recorded history of the event is also laughable.

Yes, that's what happened here a week later. Power line snapping cement with 2 inch per hour rates for 8+ hours. 

They literally record 3 to 5 inches for 4 straight days at Tri on the official record. That's a big part of why the extremely low snowfall averages are off in our region. Extremely poor quality control. You can't have a remotely accurate 30 year average when you're missing the biggest events of the timeframe. After looking it adds up to 17.6 falling at Tri airport. 

52 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@John1122 @tnweathernut Seems like we are missing some big storms in there, particularly the JC snow during the lat 90s.  I do realize that these are for the airport stations.  But have to think the big JC storm needs a mention.  Does this look correct to you all?  Also, seems like the Feb '96 storm is missing?

https://www.weather.gov/mrx/snow

 

It's not right and the maps that accompany them are honestly laughable. As I mentioned, Tri airport goes from 0 snow depth to 13 inches depth on February 2nd-3rd 1996 but has M for snowfall so they don't include it. February 1998, no clue how they missed it. I don't remember it happening how its recorded at Tri, but amounts between 3.4-5.7 inches are recorded over a 4 day span, with something like 18.2 inches falling. But I guess they aren't counting it as one event? No idea honestly.  I thought it was a dynamic cooling event that all fell in a shorter time. The Plateau had one a week later with 10-25 inches. 

Models are all struggling, as usual. They are throwing out superwarmth and then backing off as verification time approaches. I like some of the looks we are seeing, especially for further western areas of the valley. This side of the Apps looks better than the east side for sure.

GFS goes BN at 132 and except for about 48 hours, stays BN til 384. Some well BN stuff in there. So it's reeling it in, just no idea if it's right or not. 

Can very much get onboard with this look just after New Years on the Euro. Polar Vortex is split and and west best -NAO is popping up.

The conflicting MJO likely accounts for a lot of the model flipping around. I read recently that a large part of the EPS was based on the MJO prediction. With the MJO showing conflicting phases it's likely keying on one or the other and rolling from there.

Euro flipped from 5-15 AN valley wide for New Years Eve morning to 3-6 BN for the same time frame from the 12z to 00z run.  A step towards the GEFS bringing in cooler air. Euro is a warm bias model too. 

GEFS goes BN at hour 174 and stays there all but about 48 hours all the way til day 16. Much better look over Alaska at 500mb on there. Just have to see if it's a head fake or not. But modeling in general has looked much better over Alaska the last few runs vs a couple days ago when the EPS and GEFS sat the polar vortex over interior Alaska and just left it there smashing the attempted ridging in the EPO region. 

Most mets I've seen keep saying the active STJ will not allow for a SE ridge. We might still be warm but it will be due to Pacific air in the pattern. The PV not being in Alaska is a huge improvement, it tends to get stuck there when it goes there and it quashes any -EP0 and also floods more pacific air into the pattern.

Larry Cosgove today said he liked snow chances from the Rockies to the Apps through the first 3 weeks of January.  Said southern tracks that cut the Carolinas would be possible, didn't like I-95 corridor in a broad Rockies to Apps trough set up. Mentioned there's not going to be blistering cold, but cold enough air to work for a lot of areas west of the Apps. 

Sounds like a good set up for us, especially the mid and western Valley. 

12z EPS at day 10 looks even better than the OP. Polar vortex into north central Canada rather than Alaska.  We don't want the pv to get into Alaska at all. 

The 12z Euro looks better at day 10 than the 00z did. 00z had the PV deep into Alaska which turned the flow into the lower 48 off the Pacific. Well north of Alaska on the 12z. 

Looks way more workable here. Blocking in Eastern Canada, blocking on the West Coast. Flow coming more off Russia and across the pole straight into the lower 48.

Temperatures are near normal now through 2/3rds of the month, mainly on the strength of two days that were +15-20 in the area. Without those I'm probably -1.5-2.

The GEFS was bone chilling and the cold is getting into the day 10 window instead of hanging out at 14-16. 

The New Years and beyond time frame looks like it's setting up very nicely if the EPS is to be believed. It's slid towards the look the GEFS was showing a few days ago, but starting maybe 3 days later than the GEFS. Crazy that the EPS flipped to the GEFS look right after the GEFS flipped to the prior Euro warm look.

It's been colder than I expected the last several days, maybe I hadn't been paying attention with all the talk of coming warmth and was expecting it to be warm. Had lows in the upper 10s and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s several days in a row now.

• I found the AAM disco from SD and Webb interesting. Per them, it looks like we will flip to a favorable phase around Christmas per the Euro. It's unfavorable phase apparently caused the big SE death ridges in late season the last two years. Lots of good disco in that thread there and in here too. You guys should be scientists!

EPS is still looking like we end the warmth around New Years and there's beginning to be some EPS ens support for something wintry in the 12-31 to 1-3 timeframe.

GFS pops a +PNA in the long range.  Sets up major cross polar flow with cold air deep into the south and snow in the deep south. Has shown this a few runs in a row. Will see if it reels it in.