John1122

The local Christmas parade is Saturday evening around 6 but there will be lots of float and parade prep from 3-6 as well. I'm hoping we can avoid the severe during that time frame if we can't avoid the rain.

Looking back on the Decembers following the 10 coldest Novembers over the last 60 - 70 years. 7 of the 10 of these years were 7 of the snowiest winters in my area.

2014 - December was a month long warm fest that finished about +4 AN. The lowest temp in the entire month was 22 degrees. The coldest day was the 31st when the big cold front/severe event moved through and ushered in a frigid January start.

1997 - December finished at -1.4 with another month of up and down temps. 1st week warm, second week cold, third week warm, final 5 days of the month were cold. The warmth was muted and the highest temp was only 60 but it was never rock bottom cold either, lowest temp was 10. Was mostly a dry month with about 50 percent of normal precip.

1995 - December ended at -2.5 as temps rode the roller coaster. There was a big warm up during the 1st 6 days of the month with temps in the upper 60s. The bottom fell out and there was a 24-3 degree day in the middle of a 7th-13th cold snap. After that the roller coaster went back up, with a 69-55 degree day by the 15th. It stayed above normal until the 20th and the coaster went back down again. Spent the 20th - 28th mostly below freezing, had a white Christmas from snow showers that fell every day from the 23rd-27th.

1996 - December ended at +2.6 with more wild temp swings. Had a low of 18 on December 9th and it was in the 60s on the 10th. 18th-20th were cold and snowy with temps in the lower 20s for highs. It was in the upper 50s by the 23rd. Final week of the month was in the upper 60s and pushed it from a BN month to an AN month.

1976 - December was a roller coaster this month too. It finished at -4 even with the yo-yo temps. There were stretches of +10-14 AN weather and stretches of -20 BN weather. Snow fell on multiple days.

1969 - December started cold and stayed that way until the end of the month. Finishing at -6 degrees. Snow fell multiple days of the month with a big time White Christmas storm.

1967 - December was another warm one, +3.5 degrees. Warm most of the month and then it turned cold around Christmas with several inches of snow falling the day after Christmas into the 27th.

1959 - December was  mostly steadily near normal with a couple of spikes up and down,  it finished at +1.5 for the month. The coldest temp for the month was 17 and the warmest was 62 and they both happened in the first week of the month. The 17 happened due to 5 inches of snow falling the day before. That was the only snow event for the month, the rest of the month was mostly mild to normal and very wet. Almost 8 inches of rain for the month.

1955 -  December was -2.5 in another roller coaster of a month. Temps were all over the place with a -10 from normal day and a +15 in the first 3 days of the month. It bounced around then got cold through the middle of the month. By Christmas it warmed up and was in the upper 60s on Christmas eve and Christmas day. By New Year eve there was snow on the ground and the high was in the 30s with a low of 10.

1954 - December came in at -3.5 in a month where the cold was never extreme, merely steadily cold most of the month. Lowest low was 13 degrees. There were 7 days with lows in the 10s and 11 with highs in the 30s. Very wet month,  almost 10 inches of snow fell and almost 10 inches of rain fell. 

You don't often see a temp of 25 degrees at 1:00 pm in November. But here we are. Things were actually icy here this morning from some freezing drizzle that happened. Cars and steps were coated in ice with snow over the top.  

This is from lower elevations at Jacksboro Walmart. I've been at a friend's house this evening and am just heading back towards the mountain. 

Decent rates here have coated car tops and decks. Nickel sized flakes blowing around. 

Steady but very light snow falling. Don't expect it to amount to anything at all. It's the kind where you have to run your wipers every minute or so to clear off the misty look it gets from melting against it. 

Looks like the Euro has a clipper system in the same time frame that the GFS has the gulf system. Lots of time to go, but both models are at least showing somewhat favorable temperatures for snow to fall in parts of the valley, GFS scenario favors the Plateau and west for now (though I think it'd be good for all of us) and the Euro is Plateau and East, above 40 for the most part, as clippers tend to favor those areas.

If you look at the reanalysis animations Holston posted last week, of Decembers past, you'll see some memorable snow events on one or two of them.  They often took essentially the same exact path the storm on the GFS takes from 222-234.  To say the least, it's likely to change a million times, but I'd take the path from near Panama, to near Charleston to over Eastern NC every time. I believe there'd be more snow than the GFS puts down with that path. I know there would be if it were December 20th instead of December 5th.

We had some nice snow showers around this morning. Pretty to see for sure. Hopefully they manage to continue as the day rolls on.

The 3k NAM is spitting out 2-4 inches around my area in persistent snow showers. Probably above 2000-2500 feet. It's the most aggressive of the models with the snow showers. But they persist for the better part of 48 hours on the hi-res models. I'm just hoping to see flakes since I was in Florida for the snow showers last week that dusted the ground.

Interested to see if we can squeeze a storm with potential in the brief overlapping forecast -NAO/+PNA combo the ens forecast shows. Outside of that, we look to stay chilly for the next couple of weeks. We are easily in the window where snow can fall here with the proper track in early December. Getting that track seems to be an issue, as models generally forecast a parade of cutters in the near term. If the Euro is to be believed we could have a severe event in the day 8-10 time frame rather than any snow.

Too many mental mistakes by the Vol veterans in that game. Grant turning it over when he had a shot from 3 feet away and then fouling out on the next play where he was behind the guy just sunk the Vols. Not that there weren't plenty of other mistakes from other players as well. No clear idea why Fulkerson sees the court time he does, about 3 of every 4 plays involving him results in a bad event for the Vols. Finally, terrible game for the officials. Kansas' big man got his 4th on a bad call. But the vast majority of bad calls went against the Vols. Crazy to see that big a free throw gap in a game where both teams were playing the same style of basketball. Kansas was + 14 on FT attempts before the Vols ever started fouling on purpose. It's only November but that is a win that would give the Vols seeding advantage in March and they just melted like snow on a 50 degree sunny day once Grant went out. A troubling sign from a team full of veteran players.

Vols have went brain dead and let Kansas tie it. How you can have Kansas' big guy out there with 4 fouls and not even make him defend is beyond me. 

Shocking return home, 84 to 43 upon returning from South Florida.

Actually forgot to add November to that total. 45 inches fell that winter. 44.5 of it fell Nov 29th - Feb 28th. March, as I noted, only saw a few dustings here.

On 11/18/2018 at 2:57 PM, Carvers Gap said:

John, how did that winter unfold for DJF?  Thaws, ending, big storms, etc?

The December 31st event spilled into January with half a foot falling on Jan 1st. It was mostly cold til mid-month with 4 inches falling on the 12th. It never got as frigid in January though, it was sub zero in December, approaching -10. Jan 18th til Feb 5th was mostly a thaw. Upper 40s to upper 50s for highs. After that it was below normal for the most part for the rest of the month. Not frigid but cold.  It finished slightly BN for January even with the warm up, it snowed a few inches during the month. In February it was classic Nino temps,  it wasn't very cold for lows but the highs were very suppressed.  The month ended at about -6 with decent snows of 3-8 inches on the 6th,  19th-21st and the 28th which was the largest event. That one got BNA to Knoxville and points north with 4-8 inches. March warmed up fast after the 1st, but had a big cold shot the last of the month. It ended at -2 temp wise but without more than a few small trace snow events.

The Nov-March period was BN every month, and right at 42 inches of snow fell during that time. December was the prize winner with just over 20 inches falling, December was also the coldest of the months finishing at 10 degrees BN for the month.

I've seen the  63-64 winter analog used several times so far in various winter forecasts.

That year started quickly. 

Large snows of 2 inches to way more in several cases, fell on November 29th, December 2nd, December 18th, December 22nd, December 23rd, and December 31st.

Snow also fell from a trace to .5 inches on November 30th, December 1st, 8th, 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th, 24th, and 27th.

Missing the snow back home, had to settle for this on a 76 degree evening.

Had a report from back home that the snow was "grasshopper deep". I'll have to try for an explanation. I'm thinking .15-.25.

Been snowing back home from what I've heard. Warm and sunny the first half of the day here. Changed to cloudy and 78 this afternoon. If you guys pay for a vacation for me in February I'm sure we can pull off a winter storm. 

Left this morning to 35 degrees and frozen fog riming the mountains just above me, to 80 and humid in Florida. Crazy how fast it warmed driving down 75. Valdosta Ga was 57 on the car and Ocala, Fl was 77.

Congratulations to all seeing flakes. Giving a dusting to 1/2 inch for my area tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Temps were colder than expected this morning when I left for Florida. Heavy frozen fog was sticking to the mountains above 2400 feet or so. So it apparently was well below freezing there. Topped out at 37 back at my house. Quite a different picture in Florida. 80 and fairly humid where I'm at now just after midnight.

The Euro/GFS backed off quite a bit on the amounts of snow in the western areas, as did the NAM. The NAM has a massive ice storm now, and further east than before. 

These are the wobbles I was talking about, small ones have big consequences on the heavy snow axis.

Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. 

Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. 

There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.

Quote

For tonight through Thursday...increased confidence with models
bringing an early winter storm across the Midsouth. Temperatures
tonight will fall to below freezing for all except the far
southeastern counties. A developing upper low seen in North Texas
will begin pulling moisture seen just south of the I-20 corridor
northward. Light sleet and/or snow mixed with patchy freezing
precipitation may erupt over portions of North Mississippi just
before sunrise. Then chances will spread north and west through
noon tomorrow to points north of the I-40 corridor...meanwhile
surface temperatures will climb very little. To note models agree
that 925mb and 850mb temperatures never warm above freezing over
the next 48 hours across the western half of the CWA.
Accumulations of this wintry mix are expected to remain light as
the ice nucleation zone stays somewhat dry (below 80% RH). By
evening the aforementioned upper low will shift into eastern
Arkansas with rapid frontogenesis developing/deformation zone
forming across the northern counties to the Lower Ohio Valley. A
band of moderate snowfall may set up across the Bootheel of
Missouri into Obion County Tennessee producing upwards of 3 to 4
inches. Lighter accumulating snowfall associated with this band may
extend as far south as the northwest side of the Memphis metro.

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Great point John!  I’m just curious, what about the rain snow line makes you think that would be where the heaviest accumulation is? 

Many times it's where the maximum amount of moisture that can still fall as frozen will set up. Basically the colder the atmosphere the less moisture it holds. It seems to play out often when it's snowing south of here along the northern gulf states. You'll see an area around 20-40 miles north of the rain/snow line that gets hit harder than surrounding areas.