John1122

Through this same time last year, which was a cold November in and of itself, we are much cooler so far this November.

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I see CPC IS going warm for most of the country for December. Following those climate models. Of course, cpc is warn biased anyway as most of us know.

This was their November forecast.

This is the reality for the first 20 days of the month,

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Had a surprise shower this afternoon. Cool, cloudy, NW flow. 

Its chilly with showers here too. 

Pretty chilly next 16 days on the GFS.  Probably 3 AN days and 13 BN days on the 18z run. Always worry we will kick into a long thaw but when I look back over the years the odds are better that the cold is reoccurring than they are that it goes away. Getting burned last year has me wary. But 2014 worked out later in winter. 

2 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Jax, you and carver do a great job btw. The mjo charts on the cpc and dacula weather are so misleading because i dont know where it is now lol. I thought it was in phase 8 fixing to enter 1, which i thought were colder phases, especially in December. Is that correct or not? Sorry for the confusion. If those locations arent good, where is the best location for accurate mjo stuff?

It's in 8 now and looks like it will go low amplitude into 1 and possibly back into 8. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pretty impressive cold to begin November at TRI.  We are -7.2F through November 16th.  Not a single day AN so far.  That will change, but still impressive.

I often wonder how these are calculated. There's a station a few miles west from me but at 700ish feet lower in elevation. That station is 28/14 for the 13th, meaning the front had passed before midnight there. It is -26.3 for the 13th.  Tri is -18.6 but only because they were briefly that warm around midnight. Honestly the 28 was brief in this area.  The balance of the day was spent in the low to mid 20s here.

I guess it balances out with times where it may be cold for a short time during a day but quickly warns for hours but the average can be misleading as to how cold or warm the day actually was. 

6-10 and 8-14 are BN per the CPC and GEFS.

That should put 2019 high in the BN November rankings, maybe the coldest for some of us.  

Last year was cold as well for November, but not quite as cold as this year. That led to a cold start to December and a significant snowfall East of 75. 

Right now November 1976 is the only one colder in my area after the last few days of BN. Same with Crossville.

1976 had a BN December with several snowy days with around 4 inches falling in the month. It had one week of AN temps from the 10th to the 17th. 

Nov 1967 was also cold at a similar level to this one. It has a fairly warm December that turned cold on the 22nd. It snowed for 7 days of the last 9 and with around 9 total inches. 

Nov 1995 is in the top 5 coldest. December was -2.8 and it snowed a little over an inch but snow fell on 7 different days. 

December 1969 was frigid. -6 BN. Had 8 snowy days including a huge Christmas snowstorm with over 10 inches for the month. 

December 1955 is the final of the 5 coldest Novembers. It ended -3.5 with snow on 7 different  days with 2.5 inches falling. 

So of the 5 coldest Novembers,  4 of 5 Decembers ended BN temps and 4of them AN snowfall wise and 1 near normal snowfall wise. 

So the colder the November the higher the correlation to cold Decembers. Just based on that we should have a decent shot at a cold December with some snowy periods if this month continues its BN stretch as forecast. 

Average temps for the month to date. Southeastern Valley areas (Knox to Chatt) aren't as cold as the rest of the area as far as their historical ranking but 11 of the years in their rankings are from before all the other places had weather stations besides Nashville and Memphis (pre-1920, mostly 1800s). Some of these don't have yesterday factored in yet as well.

MBY 39.5  4th coldest Nov

Crossville 39.5 5th coldest Nov

Nashville 43.6 5th coldest Nov

Murfreesboro 42.6 4th coldest Nov.

Tri 42.6 8th coldest Nov.

Chattanooga 47.6 18th coldest

Knox 44.6 17th coldest.

Morristown 44.1 4th coldest (only 21 years of records)

Oak Ridge 44.9 2nd coldest (21 years)

Tazewell 40.5 5th coldest

Oneida 39.6 2nd coldest.

Cookeville 44.6 17th coldest

Clarksville 39.9 2nd coldest on record.

Franklin 43 6th coldest.

Mem 45.1 2nd coldest

Tupelo 45.9 3rd coldest

Jackson, TN 41.9 coldest on record.

Jonesboro, AR 43.2 coldest on record.

Jackson Ky, 41.3 coldest on record.

London, Ky 40.9 3rd coldest

Abington, Va 40.2 5th coldest.

Saw yesterday MRX put a graphic out that said this was Knoxville's earliest 1" snowfall and it listed November 1st 2014 at Tri-Cities. I knew that I had 3 inches on October 31st 1993, and I remember at least north Knoxville having an inch or more. I looked it up and it shows a trace at Tyson,  but it shows 1.3 inches at Tri-Cities. not sure how MRX missed 1993. 

13 this morning. Coldest in any record I have but I noticed that Knoxville set their record in 1911 so it could have been colder here at some point. 

No November day will top November 25th, 1950.  High 8, low -7 here.  8 inches of snow on the ground. It was -8 in Allardt that morning. Which may be the all time record low for November in Tennessee since a lot of stations weren't up back then. It was also -7 in Jamestown that morning and -6 in Monteagle. 

This is the kind of day I enjoy in winter.  It snowed all day long, no melting, temps stayed in the lower 20s. Very unusual to see this wintry an air mass this early.  

Still snowing here as well. Quarter sized flakes out there. Upslope has added about 1/2 today. 

7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Agree 100%, how much did you end up with? Happy for everyone who got in on this event, hopefully a preview of winter when climo brings a lot more in the game.

1.25 inches. About 1/2 what the more optimistic models were spitting out here but pretty close to what the HRRR was showing towards the event approaching, which was around 1 inch. It closed schools here, so the kids are happy with it too.

Not a huge event, but November accumulations outside the last 10 days of the month aren't very common. This one gave us a preview of some model biases to keep in mind as winter unfolds. Hopefully this is the first of many tracking situations that actually works out for us to some extent.

Back edge is moving over me now. The snow band is expanding, cold air seems to be passing through the moisture faster or maybe it's being enhanced more, but I'll bet Knox-East and NE exceed WWA criteria.

I-75 in southern Campbell from a friend on his way to work.

 Closing in on an inch, it's just been pouring for the last hour + now.

The burst of sleet here laid down a coating of ice that actually aided in sticking of everything. The sleet pellets were oddly large. Guess it was the big flakes melting and refreezing. 

Moderate to heavy snow now, but its booking out of here.  Hopefully we can get some rotation back this way. Not sure that we have much more than 30 minutes or so left though. 

Ground, decks, cars etc covered. 

Still a good portion of what's falling is sleet. The warm nose is apparently potent up there somewhere. 

Sleet/snow mix has finally started. Looks like maybe 2 hours of precip still to go for my area. 

Down to 32 but still no precip.  Just misty.  See that Crossville is picking up LT snow now.  That's basically upstream for me. 

Precip has died here and upstream of here. Will see if the precip in the mid state can get here, thinking I'll be lucky to get dusting at this point. 

Looks like the precip is breaking up for a bit, right as the changeover was getting close.