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EasternLI

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Everything posted by EasternLI

  1. EasternLI
    I'm thinking that I will. And 12+ for you.
  2. EasternLI
    10 am have 3.3 OTG with heavy snow.
  3. EasternLI
    Heavy snow here. 1/4 mi vis.
  4. EasternLI
    Easily Moderate snow right now. Looks to get nuts here shortly based on radar.
  5. EasternLI
    What are winds looking like? Seems pretty gusty already.
  6. EasternLI
    Radar is sick. NAM was bonkers. Intensity slowly ramping up here. Looking great.
  7. EasternLI
    2.2" thus far in Riverhead.
  8. EasternLI
    Radar looks phenomenal.
  9. EasternLI
  10. EasternLI
    06 z euro looks good to me. 12+ just about all of LI. Heavy band starting to really come together now. Should be a fun several hours coming up. This thing was a cutter without the blocking. Be happy
  11. EasternLI
    Light snow started in Riverhead at 10 pm. Feeling pretty good for at least a foot in this area.
  12. EasternLI
    Just been really busy. But I'm here for this. Should be a good one!
  13. EasternLI
    You'll get a foot.
  14. EasternLI
    Haven't seen it mentioned much lately, but I think a lot of the blame for that this year falls on the SSW. I remember discussion about how it would be very problematic if the cold dump was on the other side of the pole. Well, it was. Which doesn't leave much to tap into on this side. Which is what we've been seeing.
  15. EasternLI
    Eps overnight is now effectively advertising a transient period of favorability. With the ridging methodically retrograding to the dateline by the end of the run.
  16. EasternLI
    Something is lurking out there around the 15/16th maybe. Looks cold after that with cross polar flow and -nao
  17. EasternLI
    That's a solid winter pattern on the eps in the 10-15 day. 2nd half of the month looking very interesting. This is a 5 day mean.
  18. EasternLI
    For December, top 3 looks like it's been; #1 Euro #2 UK #3 Canadian
  19. EasternLI
    There actually is some cross polar flow into Canada on the eps. Starts building on the 14th. Looks -AO driven to me.
  20. EasternLI
    00Z same time period. Looking good.
  21. EasternLI
    Sure looks like its shaping up to be a very interesting 2nd half of winter.
  22. EasternLI
    End of the eps seems pretty phenomenal.
  23. EasternLI
  24. EasternLI
    LOL
  25. EasternLI
    Nice post. It could be a part of a Vortex Intensification event (VI) as is described in the following paper. If so, would be terrible news for any -AO prospects. Here's a couple of relevant quotes from the paper. The life cycle of such events, if that's what is indeed occurring, can be up to 80 days. Stratosphere‐troposphere evolution during polar vortex intensification https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005JD006302 Reduced poleward planetary wave heat flux occurs as the circumpolar wind becomes strongest and pressure anomalies penetrate toward the surface. Descending pressure patterns project strongly onto the positive state of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM). Between days −20 to +20, reduced poleward heat flux is observed as the vortex becomes strongest; increased poleward heat flux is observed as the vortex recovers. [41] In our preliminary examination, the anomalous vortex intensification seems to occur preferentially during La Niña conditions.
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