EasternLI

The west is in the deep freeze and nothing is currently showing what you're saying. What on earth are you talking about?

Keep in mind also, Matt is in the UK. Where the NAO is a far more important factor for winter. Otherwise, they can often be blasted with atlantic air. We can work with the Alaska ridge here. They don't like it over there.

Well, all of the ocean warming that we've been, and continue, to see is on the surface. You still have water at great depth that is very cold. So ocean currents acting together with the atmosphere will still provide La Niña. Studies actually suggest the possibility for more intense events as the world gets warmer. That goes for both El Niño and La Niña. However, the currents are also mixing the warming water into the depths. If we ever did get to the point where the ocean is not capable of La Niña, we'd have real serious problems. For the most part, yes that's right. It's just not as easy as looking at the COD as another phase of the chart. In and of itself, it's not revealing much.

Exactly. Same page. I very much appreciate your input.

I enjoy reading those. This pesky west pacific very warm pool seems to have been driving the bus.

Just a general note. The COD isn't a real thing to the atmosphere. There's always forcing somewhere in the tropics. There can be different amplitudes depending on other factors. What the COD is usually indicating is interference or very low amplitude. So you'll sometimes see it go into the COD and re-emerge elsewhere as one area of convection dissipates while the other is still active.

That was 00z this morning. I'm talking about the 12z run that just came out. Those charts are terrible I never use them. I'm looking at what the ensembles are actually doing with it.

Yeah, EPS still going for it with the MJO. Actually a day earlier now. The 7th, it was the 8th before.

Don't have the MJO stuff loaded yet. Or the 12z gefs for that matter. It stopped at like day 10 for me.

Or the EPS...

Nah, someone needs to hang out to help the bridge jumpers.

The Ukie at 12z did amplify the western ridge more than 00z for whatever it's worth. 00z did not.

It's a really tricky time period. How that jet extension interacts with the Pacific Ridge will determine a lot. Not really straightforward but maybe we can grab a progressive wave there.

I mean, I don't see any harm in keeping an eye on it. It's been so boring, why not.

We've seen worse looks.

I'm noticing an awful lot of spread just after the time of the jet extension impacting the Pacific Ridge and then cutting it off. That's not really surprising. Think that's going to need to play out a little bit. Timing wise, that event is just prior to the modeled push east with the MJO as well. So that's pretty interesting.

Don't know if it's right, but yeah, the eps did actually do that again. Held firm on the date again too. Hasn't been pushed back yet.

@Allsnow

Some of the key points made in the NOAA MJO update today. Numbers 4 and 5 are related to the discussions we've been having here, so not surprising. They did note some signs of renewed eastward propagation which I think most would like to hear. -Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks. -There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO, leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook. -Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks. -While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America. -An incoherent spatial pattern remains evident in the upper-level velocity potential field, likely due to ongoing competing interference with other modes of tropical variability. -Suppressed conditions have strengthened throughout much of the Indian Ocean. -The RMM based MJO index continues to exhibit a fairly stagnant west Pacific event during the past few weeks. -However, the intraseasonal signal has shown signs of renewed eastward propagation in recent days.

Damnit!! There goes my jan 8-10 period

Yeah, could be related. Looks like it's still trying to make a move east with it on this run. But it's holding firm on the date for now. Which was/is the 8th.

PNA looks positive at the end of the EPS lol

He's an expert on the subject. But I was not a fan of his previous tweet at all either. Where he said that 50mb was heading straight to the pole to strengthen. That has not been the case since he said that.

I agree. Even 2 weeks is tentative. So much depends on the total hemispheric pattern. Which we're struggling with on guidance right now. Are we confident how that's going to look? I'm not. I do see the shots it's taking currently too. It's not like it's sitting at the pole all cozy like we've seen in the past. The continued disconnect is interesting. I feel like we don't see that very often.

Thank you for posting your thoughts on this. I'm pleased to see the first part lining up with what I was thinking on the same matter.