bearman
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Everything posted by bearman
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Has Morristown been in the WSW, or have they just been added? It seems they were in the Ice storm warning earlier in the day.
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Would that not keep precipitation liquid east of the low? I don't ever remember seeing frozen anything east of a surface low?
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Not sure if it happens this way but often when we have a front pass like the one that is coming in Sunday night we will have high winds and light precipitation. IF it unfolds like that, the roads should mostly dry up before the real cold temps come roaring in. This may save us in the Valley, especially around Knoxville and other metro areas. The back roads and other sheltered areas are another thing. NOT SAYING WE NEED TO TAKE THIS LIGHTLY, but just looking at what happens very often in the valley.
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One thing that will help with Ice is the current warm ground temps. I have seen heavy rain falling into temps in the low 20s and none of the ice accumulating on the roads. I remember being shocked at how it just refused to build up where the tires of cars made contact with the road. Of course, bridges and overpasses had patches, Because they had not been frozen before the onset of the freezing rain the falling precipitation and action of the tires friction kept the roads free of ice. This may help us in the East Tennessee Valley. NOT SAYING IT WILL NOT BE DANGEROUS BUT IT MAY HELP.
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It was AI data, so I should have said that with all the disclaimers.
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I did hope you guys were on to something. I am still not giving up I have seen too many things change in the last few runs to ever throw in the towel.
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Yes, the European (EURO/ECMWF) weather model successfully incorporated data from American Hurricane Hunter dropsondes for the major winter storm affecting the U.S. West Coast around January 20–22, 2026. Key Details on Data Integration: Active Assimilation: The 00z ECMWF run on January 20, 2026, was specifically noted as the first to incorporate the dropsonde data, which caused the model to "flinch" and adjust its forecast northward.
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Knoxville wins the lottery with that one, keeps us completely clean.
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Got all our shopping done yesterday, and it was nothing like that. Walmart in West Knoxville had called in all their workers, and they were stocking as everyone was grabbing it off the shelf or off the stocking guy's cart.
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If it keeps us out of the ice, It would be great. If we don't have snow, forget it.
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We will see how things turn out. All of us have all been here more times than not. We all wish for the days when we just woke up as kids and to our surprise that muffled closed in feeling was surrounding our room, and we looked out and everything had changed. A whole new white world. At least that is the way I remember it. If it doesn't t happen this time it will sooner or later. Have a good nights sleep and maybe things will change for the better.
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Looks like the drought continues.
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This is why I never get excited before we are 12 hours out, and then it is with measured excitement. At the same time, I don't jump off a cliff until them either if there is any hope.
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Maybe I am wrong, but It seems that forecasts were more accurate/nuanced back then. Maybe not, but I wonder if reliance on tech has made people less likely to analyze all the possibilities, maybe even the hesitancy of even considering certain patterns because they are too much in the contrarian camp. The dependency of relying on AI and computer modeling I think causes us to lose aspects of human intuition.
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I am 63 years old and have been down this road for a long time, and 9 times out of 10 we always get screwed at this latitude. Still a long way to go, but I feel like it is a long way to go until I see the snow on radar coming up the Valley.
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What has happened to the weather has been really ironic, since I moved to Knoxville from the Cleveland Area around 2006. I was very excited because I love snow, so I assumed I would get much more snow than I did when I lived in Cleveland. That has turned out to be very untrue. Since moving to Knoxville, Cleveland has managed to get about the same amount or even more snowfall, and it just so happens that the area that I moved to in Knoxville never scores any snow from northern terrain generated events. It has become so frustrating that I have found myself just wanting warm weather so I can get out on the river and fish. For me, this is pretty significant because as a kid a snowfall always seemed like such a magical thing that it carried over into my adulthood.
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December 11th - 12th clipper potential
bearman replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
We have a virga storm in Knoxville and have for about an hour and a half. Not the first flake. Update. First flakes 1 min after saying this. -
We are getting a good snow shower in West Knoxville.
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There just never seems to be any consistency.
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Anybody in the Knoxville area. We are coming in from FL on a flight this afternoon and was wondering how much Knoxville Got. Any Reports there?
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Don't know why anyone would expect anything different it almost always happens. it seems. Lucy always pulls to ball out of the way before its kicked.
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This is always a good look when MRX refuses to include the southern Valley but north Ga is included so everyone is colored in on the map with a hole for the southern valley. It looks very strange on a map.
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MRX keeps knocking back the totals they see for the valley. Did have knoxville at 6 to 8 inches. now just 2 to 3. With the dryness that we have had this does not seem to be much of a deal. .
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Here in West Knoxville my temp has dropped fast. Even under cloud cover I went from 51 to 42 in the last 3 hours. Don't know if it will be enough but I am surprised. I am sure north of us and with a little elevation things should stick with any rates.
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Just had 30 dBZ returns pass over the house and nothing falling. I am just a 1020 feet. Got some dry air.
