dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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6Z GFS has some interesting movement where it goes almost due E between hr 12-18. Its one of the reason it appears the landfall location is as far south at it is. Need to see the other 6z models obviously.
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18Z Euro continues to much slower than the other guidance. Might be the reason it makes the hard right turn while still offshore compared to the GFS. 0Z track guidance just came out on tropical tidbits and looks to be further south than 18Z
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210330 2242N 08727W 6957 02329 9024 +236 +106 318007 025 039 001 03 902.4 mb extrap
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Looking at the 12Z models the Euro is noticeable slower than the rest and the current NHC forecast with landfall 6 hours later (approx. 7 am Thursday) I wonder why it's so slow.
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Very close to 0z GFS, maybe a couple miles further south but not any meaningful change.
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18Z GFS shifted S at landfall. Definitely seeing positive trend for now as far as Tamp Bay. Verbatim its still very bad for Tampa but its the trend I am looking at here.
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Milton is already basically very close to maximum potential intensity, really can't get much stronger.
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FWIW 18Z ICON was a bit south and weaker at LF
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Eye seems to be shrinking, signs of ERC starting? Structure still looks excellent obviously.
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Models keeping this as a cat 4 until 12 hours before landfall. Surge basically baked in at that point.
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Probably a bit stronger that last recon, but has to be close to maximum potential intensity for this location.
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GFS seems like its on its own with regards to less weakening before landfall. Most other guidance seems to want to knock Milton down more prior to landfall compared to previous runs. Wont matter too much as far as the surge unfortunately.
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Category 5 hurricane moving west to east in the GOM, not something you see everyday.
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12Z track guidance from tropical tidbits seems to be zeroing in on Sarasota area for LF. lot of the northern models shifted south. Better for Tampa Bay, although that entire coastal area is fairly densely populated. Obviously still too early to rule out to a LF north of there yet. Want to see the GFS start moving south. Intensity guidance has 100-110 kt at LF, while on a weakening trend.
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Hopefully the RI this morning scares people in harms way in surge zones to evac. For the short term, things to watch for besides model trends are potential current greater land interaction with the Yucatan and ERC's. Current motion is still South of due East.
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Going due east from here would keep the eyewall offshore I believe. if Milton keeps drifting S of east it's another matter. Better for Florida but obviously would be a very bad strike for northern Yucatan which due to its location basically never experiences strong hurricane conditions.
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Was beginning to wonder how close Milton gets to the Yucatan? Any chance it actually makes landfall there? Obviously that would weaken the storm.
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One piece of good news is the models almost universally have Milton weakening from 72 hours until landfall due to shear/dry air getting entrained into the circulation. Hopefully that process occurs soon enough and drops the intensity enough before hand to mitigate surge.
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Good chance that's just the HWRF with its occasional run that really overdoes the intensity. Obviously anyone on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a major hurricane.
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Best, or more like less bad scenario, is for Milton to come in south of Tampa obviously. Regardless, this is a major surge threat made even worse by the fact Helene just did a number on coastal areas/beaches etc. along a good portion of the west coast. Lot of sand has been pushed inland and debris is laying on the ground. 3 days is hardly enough time to clean that up/repair beaches.
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When was the last time a Hurricane came west to east across the Gulf to effect the west coast of Florida like that?
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Also as mentioned elsewhere the west coast is even more vulnerable right now due to erosion caused by Helene.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
dan11295 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Also have to consider that many people are preoccupied with Helene aftermath/ready to move on from this hurricane season because of it. Plus some of our southeastern posters are dealing with direct impacts of that storm. -
I doubt the actual death toll is anywhere close to that high. I am sure the vast major of missing just haven't been able to contact loved ones due to lack of communication. This is a common occurrence following major storms. That said, I do expect the toll to rise some due to the difficulty associated with conducting searches over a broad area when accessibility is hampered by damaged infrastructure, plus having to locate and notify next of kin.
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I-40 Damage in NC Here is a short aerial video with just once example of the type of infrastructure damage that has occurred. That is a long section of highway that is going to have to be re-built before it is re-opened to full capacity.
