weatherwiz

When I walked outside this morning I look up and was shocked to see stars.

This...QPF charts are ripped and read way too much and I think they are misinterpreted. I always thought this was never a setup which was going to produce region-wide inches of rain. Any areas of torrential rain was going to be more localized and tied into bands of stronger lift which would move onshore and came with higher RH through those lift zones. How I view QPF maps is this... When looking at the QPF output, I ask myself what kind of setup we're dealing with and does the setup favor the potential for the QPF values being shown (over a widespread area). Depending on the set-up if the QPF maps are showing like a widespread 3-5'' of rain but it doesn't look like a set-up that will produce that, I will figure 3-5'' is like a ceiling which may fall locally. I was scrolling through social media last night and saw dozens of posts about various fb groups and twitter saying model bust or storm bust...I heavily disagree...chalk it into user bust lol

That phrase probably holds true across all the mid-latitudes. But the folks who live in New England who really aren't in-tune to weather like we are...they think our weather changes quickly...they have no idea lol.

my mistake...yeah Feb 2006...I think I said Feb 2006 in the paragraph lol. I was thinking of the December 1, 2006 severe wx event when I typed that

Probably the best she's been stung in a while

This will also have significant impact on their agricultural network and to ranchers (as stated by the NWS)...that may not seem significant to those of us who just go the local store but that is major news for them. Again...this isn't Thanksgiving and they're prepared. there has only been ONE earlier significant storm than this on record (it appears anyways) and it caused significant problems and this was only a few decades ago.

Looks like one of the earliest on record was October 5, 2005 and there were significant impacts. And it seems like these totals could far surpass what happened with that storm.

Just b/c you know how or are fully prepared for an event doesn't mean it won't be any less impactful. CT can handle 6-12'' of snow too...how well did we handle that in October 2011? Looks like in terms of foliage they're near peak or at peak...I don't care how well you're prepared, over a foot of wet snow, 40-50+ mph wind gusts, and a long-duration event is going to cause significant issues out that way. Wind chill into the 20's through the weekend. This isn't a typical run-of-the-mill blizzard for these areas. It's October 8th

true Remember the blizzard in March across CO/KS...major highways were closed for several days due to the drifting of snow.

For sure...it's just this seems a bit early. Heck, even last week in MT they weren't fully prepared for it...thankfully the area is remote, but clean-up took alot longer than it would have if it was say December. I'm not sure of the foliage situation in ND or SD but I would have to think they still have a decent amount of leaves on the trees...this snow is going to be much more wet than what they had in MT too...that with high winds...power outages could be rather widespread.

I highly doubt they're ready for what could be upwards of 2 feet of snow in eastern ND. Just b/c the population density isn't as high as out this way doesn't mean its any less impactful to humanity...temperatures below-freezing, high winds, low wind chills...thankfully this is the weekend, but I doubt they are fully prepared for winter weather yet...let alone 2 feet of snow.

If there's sports talk there can be ND blizzard talk. This is an ALL OUT BLIZZARD! This is some odd station...D55 or something (not sure what these stations means) BUT HOLY ****

goin gto be more eastern or northeastern ND it seems like

Now we're talking!

I could see winds gusting 25-35 mph inland overnight Thursday. As the high pressure up north seems to lift out we do establish a greater pressure gradient over the region.

It should eventually (and probably quickly) occluded and weaken. Not sure how large the window is for a long-duration rain event...I'm not even sure this is a region-wide widespread rain event. We could easily be affected more by bands of heavy rain traversing through which would yield a fun looking rainfall map. Looks like occlusion sort of happens late Thursday. Another factor too is that HP to the north...flow around the high and off-shore low is one that could keep some drier air draining down at times so how close that low comes will be extremely, extremely critical to rain totals and intensity of the rain. Based on current positioning on the models it may be a tad difficult to get higher totals outside of SE MA, RI...maybe SE CT. Going to be some type of crazy cut-off somewhere.

I wonder if they get a tropopause fold under the main s/w in the mid-west Friday. Look at how low the tropopause is...that's sick for October

Some pretty impressive frontogenesis on the NAM develops and pushes through southern New England along with some good VV's. Looks like several few intense bands of torrential downpours and associated gusty winds.

The most interesting aspect is the dynamic cooling advertised on the NAM

This Inter-mountain West/northern Plains snow storm is a million times more exciting than some fluttering low off the coast that might produce periods of heavy rain and gusty winds and maybe a few dead trees down on the Cape

wow...that's pretty nuts. I didn't pay much attention to the weather for here today, but based on the fact a front was approaching there was a bit more sun than I would have anticipated...stronger mixing?

wind

But this early in October though? Seems quite early...even for them.

drifts could be like 4-5' I bet...if these scenarios play out of course. I think there will be at least a strip of prolific totals.