weatherwiz

Jesus..the 12z euro has 70-80 knot gusts scrape coastal RI, SE MA, and the Islands. I guess that just offers up what kinda gust potential we're dealing with should any convection organize or pass over anyone.

It's don't count your chickens before they sh**

hmmm...the convection would actually develop on the backside of the precipitation shield...at least that's what the HRRR suggests. I recall a couple of events in the past where something similar happened. One was a winter event...maybe like 2009 and it was a crazy light show. I remember a while back...a long time ago Scott made some in-depth posts discussing all the processes involved behind that...big contributor was edge of dry slot.

Yeah timed for rush hour too. I was hoping I'd be able to beat it home...going to be close at the speed it's going. I still feel like this is all timed a few hours quicker...which typically isn't a big deal but what I think that could mean is a later bombing out. I think the only thing in question right now is whether the Cape gets the goods with those winds and whether some of those get inland (not talking about backside winds).

Looks like it is in the process of taking on a negative tilt now and jet streak starting to round the base of the trough. These next 2-3 hours will tell us all we've been wondering.

Not many E-ESE wind events in October I guess.

I can't either. I don't think backside winds will be overly crazy...but it will be region wide. I'm thinking 35-45 mph gusts on the backside...maybe 50 in the exposed areas. There was this one event we had...think it was March...no clue on the year but it was between 2010-2012 and we had a crazy overperforming wind event on a NW flow...that was a completely different set-up than this was...we ended up with like full sun that day and mixed way deeper than forecast. There was a decent amount of damage reports/power outages...and trees were still naked.

That page is working again? sweet

I'm not so sure I agree with their notion of "window of opportunity for surface-based convection". There is a bit of a spike in some sfc-based instability on the CAMS, however, this really happens behind the area of precipitation and is tied into the steepening of the mlvl lapse rates as the main energy moves overhead...along with the dry punch.

GFS also develops a TC which makes landfall across FL Panhandle Friday night, comes off mid-Atlantic coast and strengthens and then gets pushed out to sea

15z HRRR rips a left moving supercell up the CT River Valley.

WOAH!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOAH!@!!!!!!!!

Bow echo?

We’re closing in in the window where things should begin the process of taking off and evolving. Let’s see

Not for much longer

Be interesting to see if any additional convection develops over the next few hours. I wish it was closer to land and an actual radar site

Lightning beginning to pick up off the SC coast.

they're garbage...completely pathetic.

The cold front seems to be moving east a bit more quickly than models show. It's not significantly quicker, but that could have major implications on how/where things evolve. Anyways, it does look like there is a meso-low popping off the NC coast.

The RPM really nails the Cape with winds. Looks like sustained like 30-40 knots when the worst moves through.

The 12z HRRR does hint at the all so slight possibility for a brief tornado on the CAPE tonight.

Coastal ME gets completely hammered. Has like 70 knots gusts pound into the coast.

I'm dying right now At first I was confused by this but then I read my OP

I know Tip explained some thoughts on this...I think he was more curious/impressed with the potential than I was. If it happens I think it would be extreme southeastern areas. The 12z HRRR is rolling in now and I've been kinda watching sfc theta-e advection and the higher values look to scrape the Cape so I think that's what you want to watch for. Obviously, if there is any convection potential increases significantly for 60-70 mph gusts.