weatherwiz

1937-1938 looked like a poop winter

About the time of year where we transition from 384-hr snow maps to 384-hour CAPE maps..well you have to hover over each hour b/c obviously there is no "total cape". With that here's 318-hours

Waters off Africa are quite warm...just based off of looking seems like you have to go back to 2016 to find similar anomalies at the same time frame. I think that was an active Cape Verde season? If that persist into the summer with ENSO neutral or ENSO negative...maybe an active Atlantic season. Anyways, sometimes I like staring at these maps (though haven't done so in a while) and think about how these anomalies help to shape and configure the pattern and what relation/role they have in some of the major oscillations/teleconnections.

Excellent post...true and very valid points. I have read that regarding those wildfires...I guess what seemed to be the larger concern was how these intense fires started well before their "actual" wildfire season...?

I strongly agree here...in fact, I think one could argue that the result of some of what is going on is tied into the balance trying to be re-stored. I know the Earth goes through cycles and the Earth has gone through periods of extreme warmth before...but when you account for the population now compared to back then the scale of the impacts are much more extreme. Obviously it can be argued whether humans are directly related to the changes in climate or not...but whether humans are to blame doesn't really change the fact that changes in climate are resulting in significant disruptions to lives/nature. Australia is a great example...now perhaps centuries or thousands of years ago the Hadley cell went through a similar shift to what is occurring now and human-induced climate change isn't to blame...but that's minute. At the end of the day millions of people and wildlife are being impacted.

Yes it's increased but still well below what it should be. Meanwhile, in Antarctica ice sheets bigger than big cities are breaking off. anyways, I know this stuff belongs in climate change (and for obvious reasons) but this is always a subject that people will agree-to-disagree on but at the end of the day people's opinions on the subject mean absolute crap b/c what is occurring will continue to occur whether people want to believe it or not. People's opinions aren't going to change how climate will continue to evolve moving forward or that ramifications it will have.

If that is true to size then I pass

Let start cranking those SST's and limit marine taint once severe season ramps up here

It's crazy the models are already poking into March. This means in two months they will be poking into May!

I was getting a good laugh the other day with that. Steve was cracking me up

Wasn't it pretty shattering too...especially considering we were Nino free? Pretty concerning stuff

I get what you're saying...no real reason for using 2012. March too could easily come in cooler than average...or around average. Despite what we've seen with the AO this month we really weren't far off from getting a colder look with good snow chances this month so far All we really needed was to poke some higher heights just a bit farther north into AK and the game would have been different

This March could very well yield a pattern similar to that of 2012...the way everything is structured now and how it seems to evolve is a bit similar...obviously some displacements of key anomalies but I think we're heading into the direction of a warm month.

Developing split flow should make medium-range forecasting all the more fun coming up

Kinda touched upon this in a response to Steve but you gotta be careful with just looking at the chart. compare how the models handle the pattern around the time the AO drops...it’s more in relation to a transient ridge which moves across the southern-tier of the AO domain...the drop does not appear to be in relation to any change with the overall strength or structure of the PV. I haven’t checked what the models are forecasting in terms of temps in the stratosphere but I would assume they’re still going to be quite cold. if we wanted to relay on the Arctic for help we would need to (actually would have already needed to) start seeing changes occur within the stratosphere and to the PV now. Having this major increase in the AO will only further strengthen the PV...especially given how intense the westerlies are in the strat

oh of course not...however, the influences it is having on the pattern...nearly controlling the entire hemispheric pattern is just making that probability extremely low. Just look at how much trouble we've had. I think there have been instances this winter where the PAC was actually not bad at all but the Arctic was just so unfavorable.

Moreso just another indicator that we're headed towards spring. But I totally agree with your post...I'm not saying we won't see any more snow or snow events at all...hell we've had snow events into April before lol...but what I'm just saying is (which agrees with what you said) deep winter is not coming. If we are going to get snow events as we get into March we are likely going to have to rely on something crazy to happen (thread the needle type deal?...I certainly don't think we will get any pattern support for it. If the PV wasn't as potent and strong as it was I would argue against my thoughts...but we've seen before when the PV is this strong it just doesn't break down. It's signal is just too overwhelming too to have other teleconnections overpower it. Here's 50mb zonal winds since February 1...the westerlies are through the roof. It would take a great deal of time for these to weaken and even when that occurred there is typically a 2-4 week lag between the response on the PV

been reading tweets and posts about changes coming since the end of December...it's now mid-February. spring training has started...we're almost a month away from the equinox...we are now exiting peak climo and slowly hedging towards spring climo.

The index itself can change very quickly...absolutely, however, the implications of those changes don't happen as quickly. But sort of dissecting that AO drop it appears it's related to some ridging which slides through the southern sections of the AO domain and isn't necessarily related to the structural change of the AO...which is going to be the most important when wanting a full-scale long-duration pattern change. Even during that projected AO drop the PV still looks to stay relatively intact and strong.

Speaking of February 1990 as an analog...wasn't that spring a big tornado producing year out in the Plains??? That would bode well for me

I think it's b/c the strongest anomalies are a bit outside of the NAO domain...although it's possible that Hurrell's NAO method (which I believe has a larger domain) would reflect a much more positive value than the CPC

Winter is done...it's over. It's already mid-February. We aren't going to get any help from the Arctic whatsoever...by the time any changes take place we'll be into the spring season...should changes take place. Given how strongly positive the AO will become again the PV isn't just going to weaken and breakdown in a few days or even a few weeks. Even with a somewhat favorable Pacific the Arctic signal is just too strong.

The AO forecast is beyond ridiculous...+6 to +7SD....yikes

As long as it is extremely active when I go out to OK at the end of May I will take 40's and 50's into July...I would make that trade.

It's going to relax in time to give us a crappy April and May. 40's and 50's with drizzle and overcast