weatherwiz

Looks to be a quite a bit of confluence over the region though...also a decent amount of PVA...biggest inhibiting factor could be dry air, but looks like RH increases...wouldn't be surprised to see precipitation blossom for sure but I don't think this is really much of a winter threat (accumulating wise anyways)

Agreed on everything here. In fact, I would not be surprised to see Monday sort of transition to more of a cyclogeneis deal...some hints at that within the upper-level jet structure (decent signal for cyclogenesis potential right off the coast) and this could be aided depending on how the northern/stream stream interact. But yeah...this could definitely have some implication on the mid-week potential, especially considering how it could impact how the pattern evolves upstream of us. But all the pieces are there for mid-week...decent high, 50/50 low, but all scenarios are certainly at play (north - stronger or south - weaker). These fast flows though that provide little assistance for stronger amplification always throw wrenches into things.

I heard they have like run out of bandwidth or something...or are having serious bandwidth issues. Our government needs to start re-funding NOAA. This past year has been ridiculous with problems.

The Euro for Monday was certainly quite intriguing. When looking at Euro preicip type just at face value and how it was configured, my initial thought was we were looking at a CAD signal here...but upon further inspection it appears this could be anafrontal generated (was this discussed in the previous thread?). The structure of the ULJ would certainly support this with some favorable large-scale lift behind the passage of the front. Anyways, very interesting euro but certainly hedging with caution with this type of setup. But that 500mb look is rather intriguing too...that's a pretty potent s/w trough digging in with an impressive southern stream vort. I would presume if we could get more phasing between the two this could be a nice event for many?

Everything aligning together very nicely for that area. Rates are going to be insane

700-500 fronto really starting to get going now!

Yes Yeah we had flipped but recently back to rain

All rain in bethel boo

All snow in Bethel and big fatties too

700-500 fronto setting up

Flipping to snow in Bethel, CT

This is going to be a crushing pate job here...really becoming concerned for power outages

if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed.

yes. I'm thinking 3-6'' there. may even bump to 4-8'.

18z NAM for BDL...sick thumpity humpity

in the real world, yes the sun does do that

I wonder if it has to do with it being daytime and models want to naturally keep temps up or slightly rise?

I wish I knew how to do GIF's but ba'boom

This looks to occlude pretty quickly...I wonder if that could throw a wrench into some of the ranges for like northern NH and parts of ME

Oh baby

HRRR though does keep the most impressive lift just below the DGZ

should note the HRRR has been extremely consistent. I wish more than just the 4 main times would run to 48 but started monitoring it with 18z run yesterday.

yeah def some sleet involved too...HRRR actually throwing up some 40-50+ dbz echos

HRRR also brings gusts 50+ across RI and SE MA

ehh I don't know about that. I think it really depends. Certainly from a preparation standpoint getting 8-10'' if only like 2 was forecast presents big problems with if like 8-10'' was forecast and 4-6'' fell...people start crying hype and "oh we didn't get as much as they said we would" "we never do" and blah blah blah