weatherwiz

I wonder if there is a window Monday night to get some accumulating snow.

They could be in line for a decent freezing rain event but even if it is more sleet versus freezing rain that would be pretty disastrous for them I would think.

Don't they tend to be in a favorable spot for significant icing?

Atlanta shut down for days?

Has nothing to do with the models, the hype is driven by the people who share this stuff around on social media like Halloween Candy. I can't stand these posts, "This isn't a forecast but..." or "This isn't likely to happen but".....

How about some of this instead

Close the thread, close the blinds, see ya in May

that they do but there are instances there value isn't the best. I mean in the case of this event, they aren't telling us anything we don't already know. Sure you can look at it and come to the conclusion that the mean favors less or later phasing and little-to-no hit but even within the ensembles on this, they are yielding just as much spread. they aren't helping to reduce the spread here.

Not even in my dreams do they get hit

I don't even know if ensembles matter much at this point anymore. The only was we're going to get clarity on the southern stream shortwave and whether it is held back or not is going to be sampling in real time or probably not until like with 0z guidance tomorrow night. By then models should have an idea. I get the ENS can at least give you an idea of which way to lean but that is almost irrelevant in this case.

can make our own

This wind today is brutal

I need to go back to drinking 40's of Steel Reserve. No secret our winters have gone downhill since I stopped in 2018. When I get married, instead of throwing rice I'm going to throw 40's to everyone.

Who knows if it will at this point. I guess tomorrow we can probably just analyze water vapor and forget about models lol and late tomorrow night/Thursday morning monitor current conditions within Texas and Arkansas. If the warmer air is able to get as far north as Fort Worth or even northeast Texas, well the slower, held back southern vort will be the winner. Big bust potential here in the South

To steal a quote from the great Jack Edwards, "the euro with the point of the dragger in our throats and rips it out of our hands".

Given where we are now in the timeline, this Euro run was probably about as disastrous as you would want to see. There was not even a hint of anything slightly not encouraging from the euro...not what you wanted to see. Even if we saw something encouraging, albeit tiny we could have worked with that. I am lowering my bar from 24'' to 0''. Screw winter. time for May

Didn't MSP get much of that on like one storm too?

The southern stream is becoming kind of a pain. Hell, they're on the fringes of a winter storm within Teas, Arkansas, and Tennessee and that whole ordeal is uncertain. Fort Worth is in a WSW but they may end up on the warmer side (just barely) and avoid much wintry precip. The 78-96 hour window is always a challenging one it seems with guidance when it comes to phasing situations. Not sure if there are some changes to equations or physics within models during this period but it seems to be prone to higher uncertainty when we see some decent certainty in the 96-120 hr window. EDIT: changed the second uncertainty to certainty in last sentence

Even some of these shittier OP runs, don't end up terrible. I think the idea of this being an all our hit versus nothing needs to be tossed out. This could still be something that gives at least parts of the region a few inches but I don't think this is becoming a 1-2 feet or shutout type deal.

Hasn't the GFS been doing that at times within a certain time range too? I recall at least a few severe setups in the Plains this past spring/early summer where something like that had an impact on how some of the events ended up performing.

the differences in H5 between the 12z GFS yesterday and today are absolutely insane. The whole evolution of H5 from model-to-model is wild. Hardly any consistency going on. It's way too early to write this off and of course that doesn't set this in stone but these swings in H5 are so large who the hell knows what the "middle" ground is or which side of the field to lean towards

This x100. This is a reason why we probably can't fully discount this until like 12z Thursday, even if things aren't looking so great today and tomorrow.

What a brutal storm that was from a forecasting side of things. Tough pill to swallow on that one

I think this has been mentioned several times but the PAC NW energy and the ridge is a huge factor in all this as well. Not only is there poor agreement with the northern stream energy but there is poor agreement within the PAC NW/western Canada domain. I've also been thinking this but I think this is a situation where ENS aren't going to be much use really. I mean ENS aren't going to tell us what we already don't know and that is a clean/early phase = big storm while no phase = nada or little. Just averaging out (or smoothing when looking at the mean) isn't going to give any insight as to what we can expect from the northern stream energy and the PAC NW ridge.

Yup...told my gf we were definitely getting a foot. ended up with 3.5'' or something