weatherwiz

The farther west the track, the sharper the recurve

Just going to have to wait for Erin to begin strengthening...but I am still curious if once that happens it will end up ingesting more of this SAL. I think one saving grace for Erin right now is because it isn't overly strong and wrapped its not getting t, much, if any into the center. But its been doing much better with convection today, not a terrible looking structure but getting there.

OP is an outlier AWT...but the spread is insane

I agree, if Erin can get going...she will take off.

I will be willing to bet the euro OP is of the most western outlier when it comes to the EPS. but I will be curious to see what the mean is on the Euro. We may see some heavily skewed west members but willing to bet this is a major outlier

noticing alot of models start to crank Erin around Puerto Rico but are environmental conditions really going to favor that? Dry air/SAL I think is still going to be an issue and may even have some stronger shear to the north?

I still think this very well could track west of Bermuda, especially given Erin is remaining weaker and continuing to track on the southern envelope on guidance which feasibly means tracking farther west prior to re-curving. But the end game is still going to re-curve and still far enough away from the EC for the only impact to be high surf. Maybe Cape Hatteras gets scrapped with cirrus. But all summer, we have seen some impressive shortwaves tracking across eastern Canada and getting across southeastern Canada at times. The ridge may be stronger, but if anything its stronger in the poleward direction versus being more of a E-W expansive high. There are a series of shortwaves which will be diving through over the next week which will continue impacting the WAR and allowing for weaknesses. Maybe this gets to 75W but even if so, the end game will be a sharp recurve.

lol

I don't think the long range pattern looks to become one that would favor any potential concern (at least for our region and probably from like the Carolina's north). But this is looking through the end of the month. As we get closer to September and into September there is always potential for a wild card contributor which can quickly reshape the pattern. Anyways, behind Erin the Atlantic looks extremely quiet. I think @WxWatcher007mentioned this a few days ago but the background state looks to becoming more favorable but we may not really see much in the way of development until probably moving through the first week of September. We will have to watch for some home grown with tendency for stalled fronts off the southeast coast but the pattern may also favor alot of dry air towards the coast along with strong wind shear.

Yeah RIP Erin. If Erin starts to organize and try to strengthening its just going to begin ingesting this air deeper into the circulation. Not too mention Erin is still hauling westwards

None. It's done, over, caput, zero chance.

Southwest CT probably gets the most rain with storms today

I guess sea-breeze boundary is something to watch for tomorrow. The HRRR has been dreadful this summer in terms of convection but I think it is onto something.

If anything the best chance for stuff is like late tomorrow afternoon/evening and overnight. 12z HRRR is pretty active late afternoon/early evening (looks like RRFS will be too). Regardless though should be a rapid weakening of activity with east extent.

yup...something to certainly watch for them and as you've stated a few times they have been a real magnet these past few years. Something which could also end up heavily influencing the weather pattern here for the last week of August.

I'm with Kevin, I don't see all that much Thursday, probably northwest and mostly northwest of our region...back more into NY like around Albany and into VT. Probably be a lot of isolated or scattered stuff, nothing widespread.

I wouldn't worry too much about where the storm is relative to guidance right now (too far north, south, etc). Erin is still in the initial phases of development and organization and there is going to be a lot of wobbling going on. Once Erin gets closer to hurricane state with a more well-defined center. Anyways rather minute because does it really matter if it starts recurving at 60W or 70W...the pattern over the East its going to get scooped OTS but yes Atlantic Canada can't be ruled out. This is 0.000000000000000001% for East Coast.

A heat wave and heat advisory are not in the same. You don’t need high dews or heat index for a heat wave

True, but it is still doable, just messy.

Working outside today and not sure if it's because I am just getting over whatever I was sick with but these temps are bothering me WAYYYYY more than when I was sitting out here when it was 98/73+. Bring back the dews

I think a big part of that is tied into that trough digging into southeast Canada. Seems to really do a number on that riding. If the GFS is too aggressive with that degree of troughing that could open the door for a stronger ridge

The only positive about lower dews with heat is dog poop dries faster so it's easier to pick up. Since the dog has been on prednisone since the winter and will be long-term, he is extremely gassy with very soft poop that explodes when you pick it up, so the low dews allows it to dry quickly. Other than this, no other benefit to low dews.

sent you a PM about school. I'd say go for it

I have to do the thread for the free league. Unfortunately, I won't be doing the pay league this year. It's become exceedingly difficult to find interest. I've tried opening up to outside the board and having those in it reach out to friends...it helped somewhat but not enough and then it gets difficult tracking/getting money. With starting grad school in two weeks plus still working full time I need to limit "headaches" where I can. Maybe next year can bring it back.