weatherwiz

QPF will absolutely NOT be underdone with this. I mean this inflow is ridiculous

For those asking

Definitely using more for eye candy but also just trying to illustrate and hammer in a few (negative) things to keep in mind and watch for as we get closer and it's time to talk potential snowfall totals. But I totally agree with everything you said. Forecasting exactly any banding where set up and traverse is not going to be easy and that's going to be dictated by several different factors. I actually also believe the main band will end up farther west. I think I touched upon this in a post earlier this morning or afternoon but I can see a scenario where the main bands becomes established well northwest of where models are indicating now...and this is a result of the mid-level centers developing and initially being elongated. However, as the storm rapidly organizes and the centers tighten, you'll see the main band quickly collapse southeast closer to the centers. Then from here it's a matter of does the band sit and does it have the potential to pivot? I also think we will see a secondary band form...which tends to be the case in these stronger systems. This is something which may initially favor some subsidence between the two bands but getting into what you were saying, the strong easterly inflow may help fill this in a bit or maybe the two bands converge. But I can absolutely see the main band being much farther west than what's advertised now

I am mostly playing around. I know it's early to really dig into these details but I love looking for the weenie aspect. I just looked at the PYM bufkit and yeah...that is absolutely wild

In these sense of where this occurs but it's likely pretty right with this idea.

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

Very odd from the 18z GEFS, however, I think you can kinda see why the mean was farther east. Just comparing 12z GFS/18z GFS (no comparison to other models) looks like there are some deviations in the evolution of the southern s/w between about 0z-12z Saturday. There are some differences with the north stream too. While perhaps an outlier this still tells us that despite getting closer, any subtle changes with any of these features is going to yield wide swing in potential outputs. The goal posts are still wide-ish

It's definitely stronger and a bit more west with the ridge axis compared to the 12z run and 18z NAM...here we go

Almost forgot 18z GFS is running. Anthony forgot to remind us...what a slacker

Just give me a 980's or 970's low as it's passing southeast. Getting anything deeper (especially too intense deepening) and bad things happen. Precip starts to get more banded so while some cash in you need to be lucky and occlusion can happen to rapidly so you choke off the moist inflow and the CCB just shuts off and everything goes to poop. Save the 950's for tropical

Beautiful. I have a shaky hand.

now's the time to upgrade the camera...by like 50 generations

Some decent WAA well out ahead of it with just enough lift

Game 6 EDIT: Will beat me to it. Should have figured

About 2,500 feet. That is insane. Dendrites will be ripped to shreddies. Going to have to keep this in mind when making snowfall forecasts and ratios.

This is most likely going to happen. We're going to see two bands with two max areas and subsidence screw zones in between.

How did people live before model snowfall maps

I think it depends. When the H7 low is more tightly closed off and consolidated I think this usually results in the deformation fairly close to the center...like 50-75 miles NW but when it's more elongated in nature the best deformation is significantly farther northwest (like 75-100 miles). Inflow should be phenomenal.

Although I wonder if this is a situation where the initial bad (which will be the strongest) actually materializes much farther NW than what is being shown and then as the storm matures and the centers tighten, the band then collapse and traverses over much of the region then finally sitting and rotting (probably eastern sections) and during this transition a second more weaker band materializes like 75-miles or whatever west of the main band.

Don't really like where the 700 low is developing and closing off.

EWB. The best part of big snow events...is looking at omega values on buflit. This also shows there is going to be serious subsidence somewhere. Cross sections are going to display this super well

Very poetic. I feel better already

This pisses me off..any other day 12z GFS bufkit is out by now. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

May see legit thunderstorms out on the Cape. Severe thunderstorms containing heavy snow

dual-band signature very apparent here