weatherwiz

Tat one supercell in Miami-Dade/Monroe County is pretty intense looking. That is some pretty strong rotation. If cells can remain discrete like this moving through the next several hours the tornado potential is going to ramp up pretty quickly. Now as the llvl jet strengthens you start to worry about shear becoming too strong with not enough CAPE present but 3km CAPE is around 200 J which is pretty hefty. Thankfully these two seem to be in somewhat rural areas but the HRRR shows some pretty intense storms around Miami this evening.

This latest burst of convection on the western side of the eye wall looks to be producing the coldest cloud top temperatures yet. Just eyeballing from the scale but looks like cloud tops probably approaching or even exceeding -80°C.

Eye completely wrapped in convection now. Quite the explosion of lighting on all sides in the last 30-minutes (if that)

Starting to see convection and lightning increasing in the southern eyewall now too.

The improvements with the eye over the past even 30-minutes alone is quite noteworthy. Clearing out quite nicely and trying to become more symmetrical by the (satellite) update.

Well both verified today then

There were hints at scattered showers and perhaps some thunder moving through.

These were in the forecast

And I’m talking visually

The back edge of that fell east of new Britain is very interesting

What a terrible drive down 91 wow.

12z GFS bufkit has ~48-hours of tropical storm force winds at TPA and a good 24-30 hours of hurricane force gusts. That's pretty impressive

Agreed...once RI happens with these systems models can have a difficult time playing catchup. There are certainly some flags to really consider here. Regardless of what seems to happen in terms of intensity (as we discussed in SNE thread) rainfall/flooding (storm surge and freshwater) could be rather devastating. Now...if a scenario like GFS is right a concentrated area of significant wind damage/power outages would be probable. Looks like eastern eyewall on GFS gets close to Tampa?

Well too be fair Ian was never really expected to take off until today anyways. Yes it did take a big longer than anticipated to get to hurricane status but it terms of potential and likelihood for RI that is on track.

The duration of TS force winds and hurricane force gusts could be pretty impressive. GFS bufkit for TPA has some pretty prolonged conditions.

Now that Ian is getting its act together with a more well-defined center we should get a much better idea of exact track probably with 12z guidance. Still saw some jumping and wavering with 0z/6z

925mb from the 12z GFS

The GFS has become the superior model with tropical. There have been a few storms over the last 2-3 years where it was GFS vs. everything else and the GFS came out on top.

Seems like there will be a substantial amount of shear with the strong trough just off to the north. I would think the two biggest concerns are going to be storm surge and maybe rainfall/flooding. Looks like the system could slow down quite a bit too. Wouldn't be surprised to see a small area of 15-20'' of rain.

SpaceX stuff

Looks like more members on the 0z model intensity guidance are into cat 4 now disclaimer: I'm a beer deep into a 9.5% that I LOVE so I could be seeing things

A friend sent me this last night...I gotta watch it!

Model Intensity Guidance has been rather concerning since this thing was even a little tickle. Lots of members into the Cat 4 guidance. I would think if Ian avoids Cuba all together or just skirts the western edge higher intensity would be rather likely.

I'm not sure if we'll be able to muster up enough low-level instability to get any couplets to tighten sufficiently. Although the potential for this is probably highest towards the coast where dewpoints could be 3-4°F higher. One thing I do like though is how the storm mode looks to be on the discrete side. Cells will be moving rather quickly too. If any storm could straddle the warm front there would be enhanced shear to work with but you'll still need sufficient CAPE in the lowest few km for anything to tighten.

I wonder if it's worth starting a severe thread for tomorrow. I say yes