weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Pretty fun little storm. Always nice too when the first one goes about as expected.
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The end of the week is certainly interesting. The only expectations I have right now is that it's something to track and monitor. It's a very complex pattern and evolution so we're going to see a thousand potential solutions over the next few days. The pieces are there for a big storm, regardless of precip type.
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This is going to be such an amazing fun week of weather. Snow event here tonight, a pretty significant blizzard in the northern Plains, severe weather Tuesday evening (though don't think it will be an outbreak), and then a potentially big storm here end of the week. Finally the boredom is over.
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It will be interesting to see how things go in about 2-3 hours. Looks like the strongest overall lift is beginning to move overhead now. As this starts to depart east precipitation may begin to shut down quickly. Exception will be where there is enhancement from the inverted trough which could be from like northeast Mass down through Worcester area into northern CT.
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Steepest lapse rates moving overhead now with some moderate lift. Wouldn't be surprised to see some thundersnow soon
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Close to 1.5” in Springfield
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coming down nicely now in Springfield
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I think the majority of the dry air is a bit above the DGZ and there seems to be sufficient moisture within the DGZ so I don't think dry air was much of an issue in this case.
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Matching up perfectly where DGZ RH and omega is overlapped
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I'm sure it will. There's definitely some localized areas of enhanced lift out there. Guidance has been pretty consistent in this becoming more widespread; particularly across much of Connecticut going into the evening. It really isn't for another 3-4 hours we should see this take pace. This is also when forecast soundings showed by best profiles with strongest lift into the snow growth zone.
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Just realized...get to watch the Bruins tonight and snow falling...woohoo
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I still think 2-4'' is good for you.
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Nothing crazy, but a bit of some enhanced 700 fronto over northwest Connecticut. Definitely something to watch over these next few hours
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So far here in Springfield (a bit northeast of downtown)
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You can tell there are some pretty solid soundings over Connecticut/Massachusetts. Have the area of steeper lapse rates working in as well. Definitely going to be (perhaps multiple) narrow corridors of some enhanced lift/rates later on (when assessing 925 fronto as well).
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Light snow here in Springfield!
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Great time…great to see everyone again!
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Grabbed a table in the back. They said it’s going ti get busy
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I just went into the back room
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Just parked
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Headed shortly
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I am thinking of arriving by 12:30 as well.
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This is what is going to be the biggest PITA. Models struggle with this
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agreed...I think if this event pans out it is going to favor CT into RI and portions of interior SE MA
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One concern I have with that stout high is it's going to be supplying a quite a bit of dry air to the north. This could really be a no-win situation event for most. If the storm track is farther south (which obviously is good for colder air) the northern edge of the precip shield could get destroyed with dry air. If the storm track is farther north you get increased moisture, but now you're talking about profile concerns (especially towards the coast).
