weatherwiz

confluence is a **** for the models to handle. We've seen situations in the past where around this time range the OP's do a complete 180 for a few runs. It's a pretty volatile northern stream...lots to resolve.

back to rain here or at least a mix. Happy for the coating.

What do the weeklies show for May?

winding down here but even with super light rates the ptype is still snow

Well this explains the golf ball sized flakes. Had some yellow pixels overhead. Flakes size back up too now! If this keeps up snow will accumulate more quickly then W’s in the Bruins win column IMG_0553.MOV

IMG_0552.MOV

MASSIVE flakes right now. It's like golf ball sized snow

If the system amps up too early we absolutely could see rain and rain well inland. At this point, that scenario is just as plausible as a significant winter storm down to the coast. We're going to have to hope for at least some degree of confluence

Always that one team

HOLY SHIT IT'S SNOWING!!!!! Just starting to changeover. Big flakes a fallin

Tried in 2011, but lost to the Bruins in 7-games

Once metfan begins to post SLP millibars that's when the real excitement begins

For any CT peeps who may watch WTNH this was my roommate from school and one of my best friends. Pretty awesome he had the opportunity to work on TV in the state he grew up in. https://patch.com/connecticut/across-ct/ct-meteorologist-makes-career-announcement?utm_campaign=blasts&utm_content=connecticut&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR3SCRMLAEVYXQjMvNxiOuATaf4fGE76_xeoKjW-CeWOQ36wNO383onMKv0&mibextid=Zxz2cZ

Yeah that could be a sneaky little event for many. Sometimes in these God awful patterns it's those systems that end up producing. I think several have said this over the course of the past few weeks, but in these patterns sometimes little systems can sneak up on you with 2-3 day lead time.

Unfortunately all rain here in Springfield. Real bummer. Nothing worse then cold rainy days. They just make you tired. And I'm already tired b/c 10:30 hockey games suck

18z NAM bufkit for ORH. Going to have nearly perfect dendrites

Don't count your chickens before they shit

This is going to be a fun week of tracking. Hopefully people just keep in check though and understand the caveats that will apply and don't live-and-die by each subsequent model run. Models struggle big time with confluence so with that alone it won't be surprising to see wild changes from OP run to OP run. But until we get inside D5 the only thing that will matter is the evolution of the pattern. SLP tracks, snowfall maps mean squat. Just b/c an OP run may show no storm verbatim won't mean the storm is "lost" and just b/c an OP run may show a Georgie orgie blizzard, doesn't mean it's a lock.

Yeah confluence for sure would be a huge player in this. but we gotta keep in mind that while confluence can be our friend, it can also be our enemy. But as this stage...looking at the individual members Will posted when its close to the benchmark, all we can really take in right now is that there is potential for substantial cylogenesis off the coast. we hope this signal persists until we get close enough to pick out details.

yeah it is a bit warmer, but also not sure its as juiced with the precip.

Nice isothermal layer with a rather deep unstable layer and plenty of lift in the DGZ

NAM looking a bit juicer and subsequently a tick colder

Won't have blocking in the form of NAO blocking, but per the EPS we would be dealing with a high pressure to the north so something to watch. Even this far out though that detail can be iffy. One thing of note is the NAO looks to be trending more negative around this timeframe which would indicate higher heights (higher pressure) building into the NAO domain which could support a "blocking" potential.

Not too go all Georgie here, but if this signal really holds and we are flirting with a low coming up the coast, with how warm the SST's are the amount of moisture inflow would be through the roof. With this you also get nervous for any track along the coast without locking in colder air.

It's like a mini firehose with some convection too