weatherwiz

Forecast supercell composite parameter later Too bad they capped

KCVG dewpoint hit 80! Wish we could get that

191-days until cutter and rain season returns

unfortunately no fun for us with this one and looks like we get screwed with timing at the end of the week. sigh

That's about where I was thinking the northern fringe of the complex would track but some of the models indicate this could become a pretty large complex so maybe the northern fringe does get farther north like the NAM shows.

The NAM/GFS are awfully far north with that MCS/"derecho" for tonight/tomorrow. Although the GFS seems more realistic with where it should actually track.

We can only hope. I've been trying really hard not to get too excited for anything 5+ (sometimes even 3+) days the past few years (including winter). But it's nice to see this potential still on the table from a few days ago. Going to be lots to iron out with how things evolve.

I did see that movie when I was super young…I think that’s what started my spider fear and speaking of spiders is this one of those ones that are supposed to fall from the sky???

My uncle used to see them when he lived at a stable when taking care of horses. This is a huge part of climate change that nobody talks about…big massive spiders starting to populate the north b/c the climate is becoming conducive for them. Pretty soon wolf spiders will dominate and we’ll be seeing brown recluses everywhere along with black widows and the Australian massive spider guy. This really isn’t a good situation

I don’t think we can fully enjoy summer until we get into constant 85-90+ with dews > 70

It's like a slow blow to the gut

GFS has a fairly good looking severe threat next Friday!!!!! WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE A WEEK OUT??? It probably will become more poopy as we move through the week....ughhhh this is a pathetic summer for convection...absolute crap. Can't get anything solid....nothing good...not even any decent setups.

I don't think you could draw a more perfect hodograph...maybe just slightly strengthen the shear more between each major level.

ruined my card game last night

This breeze is PISSING me off. Trying to play cards outside and the breeze be blowing them away

I think that is a very underrated correlation to DJF NAO. I remember back when I used to really dig into long-range looking at that correlation and it seemed rather striking.

agreed

Around 80 and humid with CU and TCU in the sky. That = summer

Very impressive area of -SSTA's in the northern Atlantic there. Definitely knocking the AMO down a bit. Likely a product of the persistent vortex in that area and countless systems tracking along it but that is certainly playing an influence on our weather too IMO...especially with the enhancement of any BD potential

I read it as through now not moving forward...but to your point, yes moving forward that signal does dampen out quite a bit. And also to your point about the decreasing seasonal lag is we don't always need a massive ridge at H5 to get big heat into here. If we get a very strong sfc high across the Southeast or just off the Southeast Coast that can certainly pump in big heat (and humidity) all while maintaining a more northwesterly flow aloft(indicative of a subtle trough or downwind of a ridge crest)...and this is how we get our higher end severe events (ala summer 1995).

I think there is some degree of accuracy with a blocky Arctic. I know this time of year Arctic Oscillations typically don't correlate well to the pattern as their signals weaken, however, if you look at 500mb height anomalies for the first week of the month there is some argument for an Arctic-driven pattern. The ultimate issue though has been that pesky vortex to our northeast (which has seem to become a fixture the past several years during the late spring to about late June) which I guess brings about...is the Arctic driving this fixture?

May have to watch northeastern MA for some development later this afternoon if enough mid-level moisture can hang around.

Keep an eye out in far SE CT, RI, and SE MA

Parts of RI and SE MA could get hit fairly good with that line south of Long Island. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized areas of wind damage.