weatherwiz

Especially here. The West is probably laughing at us.

Here's a good one

OT but better then east/west, drought/dirt, swirly talk but how is exactly a modoki ENSO event defined? Is it when you have core anomalies located in both west/east based ENSO regions?

Hopefully it ripped off a roof tile and we can classify it as an EF-U or EF-0

The best possible forecast to probably make with this is scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, with some heavier downpours around and maybe a narrow corridor of heavier rain potential.

I read about this in the book I bought about Connecticut Tornadoes...which I never read through because some things in it annoyed me. Anyways, if this is the event I am thinking of there was something very specific which prevented a much more significant death toll. And I think it was that storm that went through the New Britain area. But if it had tracked I guess just some miles to the northeast (closer to Hartford) the death toll may have been well into the hundreds, if not, higher.

That is one rather large 500mb circulation. That ultimately likely hurts us here. It's pretty much centered over New England and the majority of shortwave activity rotates around it with all the best forcing and lift displaced outside our region.

Only 261 says until May 1 ughhhhhhh

Days like today where the sun plus peek-a-boo with the clouds and the sun is playing peek…it’s feels hot and the hot feels more hot than the days when it’s all sun and very humid and it’s like 90+. I wonder if it’s because when the sun is playing boo and behind the clouds the source of the heat is cut off so you feel significantly cooler. So these days are worse than 95/70 with full sun b/c you at least have something ti be used too.

I'm sure they'll get into the 70's but there's room for lots of cloud cover given how cold it will be aloft and especially if the closed low is nearby over overhead. We may break clouds during the evening and overnight and begin the day partly-to-mostly sunny but should quickly see clouds develop. I wouldn't be surprised though if there are some locations that don't get above 70 each day through the first half of the week.

Convectively driven showers/thunder seem probable each day for much of the week. It's not the soaking widespread rains we need. It has potential to be quite cool though (at least compared to where we've been at). I mean extended GFS barely gets EWR to 70 Tuesday

Nice little cold pool tomorrow. Moisture lacking but maybe a few storms out across E MA where convergence a bit better

Next week is certainly going to be on the wet side. Is it going to be a region-wide 2-4''+ soaker...obviously it's too early for those details and it's dependent on the evolution of everything, but there is a front coming through and synoptic pattern would favor the front stalling. That's good...what we probably don't want to see is the front washing out. If the front can stall we increase the likelihood for at least one wave of low pressure to develop along it. There's going to be plenty of lift around and moisture available.

We'll probably be getting into mid-October and revised forecasts will still be calling for above-average activity.

Agreed. But maybe I should be more concerned than I am...I mean this isn't an area I have a ton of knowledge in but I'm sure this has to be impacting farmers, the agricultural market, probably those who rely on well water, etc. so it's gotta be pretty significant to them. But the reason I am not concerned if for the reason I mentioned...what are the odds we go through the fall without a few coastals? We can easily get 2-4'' of rain in one system.

While I am getting a little more concerned than I was with drought talk...we'll see what happens in fall. Summer is tough to do widespread synoptic rains...we rely on convection so naturally some areas are going to be hit while others aren't and some areas moreso than others. But if we go through a quiet fall and another sub-par winter...it could get ugly moving into next summer.

I envision it being fake

I used to really love fall and used to have equal love for all seasons but as I get older I hate fall and winter more and more. If anything it's just because of the cold. I used to have a higher tolerance for cold but not as much anymore. I honestly think driving is what lowered my tolerance for cold. I didn't get my driver's license until I was almost 26 so before then I used to walk everywhere (or take a bus...which still required walking) so in the winter's I was used to walking 1-2+ miles in the cold/wind/snow. It's just the cold/wind that drives me nuts. Snow I still love.

Which is funny b/c it's getting into those transition periods which features the most active weather. Some of our bigger snow events happen late January/February and the past several years we've had some pretty decent convective events in August (and of course we've had some tropical impacts mixed in too).

Looking beyond D10. The pattern relaxes a bit in the D10 but looks to re-load back up. Going to be quite hot across the country

Re-load baby Well I guess we'd have to define that. Will it be 97-99...IDK. Obviously that gets tough to do as we get into late August and early September. But we could be looking at a pretty long stretch of impressive warmth. This go around we've had a slowly sagging cold front. The way the pattern looks to become established across the country it may be tough to get any appreciable fronts through for a bit.

We are going to bake once again heading towards the end of the month.

I keep getting excited b/c I think I hear thunder but it's people bringing in their garbage cans

These types of convective schemes are very difficult to model. The large-scale lift is very weak so you're really looking for very diffuse, finite drivers to develop the convection which really come down to almost a micro-scale level.

well we got the marginal tomorrow...didn't think it would be such a big area.