weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Unfortunately I don't think there is enough room for this to slow that much
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That's my inclination. It is interesting to note though (which Ryan mentioned earlier) is the NAM keeps it quite unstable to the river well into the overnight. Obviously nocturnal severe is extremely difficult in these parts, but that potential tends to be higher in August and we do have somewhat steep lapse rates which is a HUGE change from guidance.
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may see an enhanced somewhere tomorrow per SPC!!!
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I don't even try on clothes or shoes. I know about what size to get. I go in the store and if there is something cute in my size I just grab and go. Quick and easy.
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CAPE/shear combo is certainly impressive. HRRR looked pretty decent with getting storms into central CT with the NAM a big lagged. I saw your post last night about Sunday, that's a pretty decent along the coast on east with good lapse rates.
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Was shocked to see it expanded so far East.
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Tomorrow looks very interesting just off to the West. I'm not sure if we will get stuff to maintain moving into western Mass and northwestern Connecticut but that's some pretty good deep layer shear and directional shear. Also, lapse rates don't look as terrible as they did a few days ago.
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NAM is pretty decent up to the CT/MA border Saturday. mlvl lapse rates blow so typical caveats with that
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I haven't really paid attention to the environment today and just looked at mesoanalysis and that's a helluva environment down in New Jersey. 125-150 J of 3km CAPE just east with 0-1km helicity of 200 m2s2...yikes
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yeah that has to be down...that is a pretty solid spin in the llvls of that storm
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TOR in NJ...looks decent too. Add another to their list this year?
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I'm inclined to agree with this.
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Just a tad overmixed
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Then we fail at simulating
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GFS is interesting Saturday. Monday interesting too but looks more south and west for best potential.
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Everyone gets caught up in simulations and AI
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there's probably a plan to name every single swirl that arises
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we'll probably get the cane up here then
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Your best chance of seeing a Cane down in Florida is September 29th when the Carolina Hurricanes play split squad games at the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning.
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I gained one pound since last summer!
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I had to put the heat on in the car this morning
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Holy shit that’s terrible
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Yeah I’m thinking heavy rain and flooding is by far the biggest concern here. I don’t even think there is much thunder really. Those lapse rates are about as terrible as you can get. Obviously if southern areas can tap into the higher theta-e air it’s a different story with low potential
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Severe potential is all about how much llvl CAPE can materialize which the best bet will be in the true warm sector. It likely will have to be pretty sufficient too as shear is going to be quite strong. So if there isn’t enough instability any rotation will be pretty meh and updrafts will be ripped apart easily. LCL’s should be super low which helps
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The heat/humidity has been quite relentless down that way. I think yesterday at 8 AM MIA had a HI close to 100
