weatherwiz

I was under the impression from the discussion the past few days that the focus on the cold was Wednesday night versus Thursday night.

You could argue some locations could be colder tonight versus last night.

went outside to play with the dog for a bit after the 1st. It was definitely a winter feel with the wind.

Certainly a concern. I've been debating whether it is the warm front getting hung up, warm front washing out and transitioning to a BDCF, or just a BDCF which dominates WF progression.

Looking outside I can see TCUs popping up. Gotta admit...its making me a little tingly

Tuesday could feel like an early summer day ahead of the cold front with dews perhaps into the lower 60's

Thanks!

@dendrite what's the link for the error bias for temperatures?

ahh gotcha, agreed.

I was wondering how much CAA would factor in. I looked quickly but it seemed like the strongest CAA was moreso during the day than at night? I don't know if it's worth it or not to see how they fare across portions of Wisconsin/Michigan tonight, if anything just a general idea of how they performed in relation to guidance. Looks like the brunt of the airmass though arrives more from Canada.

Wouldn't be surprised if the high terrain of northern Vermont picks up a few inches of snow tomorrow.

Looks like 12z guidance ticked a few degrees warmer for tomorrow night? At least across a few locations. I guess it is all going to come down to if we maintain enough of a wind to keep things mixed.

Agreed, but I can understand this is highly dependent on where you are within the region. We've certainly had some crummy days but we've had a share of very pleasant ones as well. But I get that hasn't been the case for everyone.

Well it's hard to believe we are one week away from the beginning of severe weather season. Lots happens as we move through the first few weeks of May, plan life blossoms, the Bruins/Celtics make deep payoff pushes, the Red Sox be the Red Sox, and the weather warms and we even sneak in some humid days at times. We also turn our attention to the convective side and monitor for severe chances. A wonderful gift may be in store as forecast models indicate a strong shortwave trough traversing the Northeast region next Tuesday with unseasonably warm temperatures out ahead of it and perhaps a surge of higher dewpoints with the advection of rich theta-e air. If this potential continues, a thread can be made down the road. For now, let's focus on the arrival of May as we make the push towards summer! The first few weeks of May have potential to be quite warm, however, we have to watch as there are some indications an omega block pattern could evolve and of course we always have to keep an eye on for backdoor cold fronts.

I know it's easy for me to say I wouldn't but maybe I would. I think I would be totally fine with that and then to change it up maybe deal with 3 months of winter like weather with snow.

Someone had mentioned this but looks like we could see some thunderstorm around tomorrow. Too bad dewpoints aren't even another 10F higher given the lapse rates.

It really does suck. Let's face it, the only people who enjoy winter in New England are those invested in weather or those who like to ski or snowboard. Outside of this, winter is generally depressing with the short days and dark by 4:30. It then takes forever to enter a weather pattern where we're consistently warm and not have to worry about whether outdoor activities will be ruined (minus thunderstorm chances). With both my parents gone and the ability now to work remotely, I am strongly considering at some point re-locating down South. I still have family up here but my girlfriend's family and parents are mostly in Florida. I can always come up this way to visit. I've even considered something like living in Florida from March - May and then September-November and then here from June-August. Just thoughts though...not sure if they will ever become serious enough to act upon but it seems like seasonal depression gets worse every year.

Frosty the Snowman paid me a visit this morning

downbursts can be just as damaging and across a larger swath as EF0-EF1 tornadoes.

We're going through April and towards May, things bloom. Some areas start earlier, some later. Happens every year.

hopefully a shot for thunderstorms at least.

It really isn't bad out. It's great under the Sun with little breeze. Can't wait for it to be 30-40F warmer though with dewpoints 60-70F higher but soon enough.

The NAM almost seems a little too warm Wednesday night

yeah for sure. nice lapse rates and some weak instability