weatherwiz

It's less painful thinking it's closer than it really is

Looks like all systems go for a derecho event to unfold today...though maybe would like to see a bit stronger llvl wind fields. Anyways, looks like llvl lapse rates will continue to strengthen over the next few hours with 2-6km lapse rates already on order of 7-7.5 C/KM and even some pockets of 8 C/KM. Those are pretty eye opening for a significant wind event, especially with DCAPE values up around 1000 J/KG and even some higher pockets around. A strong tornado is even possible in any discrete cell that doesn't have its updraft interfered with.

Blocking is going to be he bigtime wildcard this winter. If we can get any favorable blocking winter is going to deliver. There is no doubt in my mind on that. I've never really followed those long-range climo models before so I don't really know anything about them, but for some of them to be showing that degree of blocking (which I would assume would be top percentile type stuff) has to be extremely encouraging.

It's a pretty robust setup down that way. Very steep lapse rates all around (mid-level, low-level, and 2-6km) with an unseasonably strong H3 jet streak. If there was much stronger sfc heating and higher CAPE this could have been a borderline high risk IMO.

Agreed on that. Just a matter of how everything sustains and where greatest coverage of convection tracks. The 3km NAM is actually pretty impressive. I have very mixed feelings when it comes to the 3km but when it seems to hint at a more aggressive scenario it tends to be onto something.

Seems like any potential for a strong or severe storm tomorrow is like 6 AM - 12 PM and probably moreso eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Mass. Should see a widespread 1-2'' of rain tomorrow within this outline area as well and probably some narrow strips of 3-4''.

Been a steady rain here for at least 90 min or so.

What a tease

I don't know if we will see much develop during the day tomorrow. Probably extremely isolated, if anything. Any shot probably comes overnight into early morning. Pretty strong dynamics and shortwave energy overnight so rain could be a bit more widespread than models are showing. I mean that is a pretty potent LLJ moving into the region tonight.

We always just miss out Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 071218Z - 071415Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will take place at the 13Z Day 1 Outlook update. The Moderate Risk will include areas in northeast Tennessee, northwest North Carolina, western Virginia, southern/eastern West Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging winds are expected, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, with a moist airmass ahead of the system becoming moderately unstable. Thunderstorms will develop by late morning along a surface trough associated with the upper-level system. Supercell development will be likely around midday with a few tornadoes possible. A transition to a squall line is expected to take place during the afternoon. This squall line will move quickly eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. Widespread damaging winds are expected along the leading edge of the squall line, with localized gusts above 65 knots possible. ..Broyles/Grams.. 08/07/2023

We'll probably finally get our ridging come January.

Would love to have gone haha

Not so sure about that

I don't think a few strong/severe storms can be ruled out tomorrow night. That's a pretty solid surge of high theta-e air with a pretty impressive llvl jet and strong sfc low passing to our northwest. Should be some severe potential Tuesday, though looks pretty messy. Perhaps better moving towards New Hampshire and Maine?

Maybe those that like lower dews are the ones full of shit

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. Just went into the 3 hour obs. Went from like 64 to 68 randomly lol then down to 60 haha

I always forget how delayed the obs can be. Now it shows the 60. Booooo

I just checked on NWS didn’t look at regional obs.

68 dew at CEF! May wear shorts to the Brew at the Zoo. Debating on jeans or shorts.

Yup great call on that.

Wasn’t July 3, 1997 predominately cloudy too?

I don’t think there is a whole heck of a lot of forcing. Really was better north and west.

Guidance yesterday and overnight was looking pretty decent but the trends today have been pretty meh.

Best chance for anything really is going to be western Mass and northwest CT and then across southern VT/NH and maybe into northeast MA. HRRR has really backed off the last several runs.