weatherwiz

I'm sure this isn't totally final, but as promised. Very good at determining which areas will see snow and picking up at some of the local elevational changes (which isn't anything special really) but outside of that...garbage.

If things don't work out this winter one thing I may be upset at myself about (although not too much because digging into seasonal forecasting is only something I really started getting back into late last Fall so there was a time constraint) is not digging deeper into is how Canada. While we have seen some favorable patterns over the past several years at times, one thing which has always seemed to be lacking is an abundance of cold in Canada. Can't say it's been absent, even thus far, because we have had some chilly periods but the timing of the cold air has not worked out. But we really need to: 1) Develop a pattern which will allow for and favor cold air building into Canada 2) Evolve the pattern to favor the cold dumping into the Northeast Isn't this why the EPO is important or the WPO? Doesn't the WPO do the work of building the cold into Canada and then the EPO/PNA dump the cold into the mid-West, and then AO/NAO do the work for us? (In a nutshell)

Don't disagree with that, just saying that you can't just look at the one product (anomalies) and assume it's warm.

Great post, people need to take this into consideration when posting 850 temperature anomaly plots. Pretty red colors in January in Canada doesn't equate to "warm". I also wonder if that "unfavorable" look being modeled is what sets the stage for some fun times as we move through January. I think this has been discussed quite a bit by a few...the idea that we would likely go through a period where the pattern is highly unfavorable before we finally turn a corner.

That's exciting. Going to miss the NAM though had some fun times with it.

Hopefully it is in the works to make some enhancement to these short-term mesos that can make them more reliable outside of 24 hours or start running them beyond 24 hours. I know the HRRR does so at 0/12 and 6/18 but if skill beyond 24 hours can be increase for these pieces of guidance that could help quite a bit in some situations (or I guess even add to the confusion).

This kinds of goes back to the discussion on modeling a few days ago, but these past 3-4 years have been awfully difficult. There have been so many times models seem locked in and there is confidence aided in ensemble support 2-3 days out and off go the headlines...but we start getting inside 30-36 hours and all of a sudden there is a back off. This has happened with multiple winter weather threats and setups similar to this.

why can't A + B = D? 1 + 1 = 2. Those are constants A, B, C, D, etc. are all variables and be assigned any value. If A = 2 and B =5 and C =12 A + B does not = C

January and February…into some of March that’s when our snow is. All this crap about December snow and “white Christmas”…is just that, it’s crap. It’s just mentality deranged from childhood fairytale stories of Santa recruiting Rudolph to guide the sleigh through snow and fog.

Certainly going to be at least some poor drainage flooding concerns. In terms of the wind, this seems to be trending less impressive everywhere. Backside snow...there is going to be some snow (ski country should still see decent snows) but if you look at the warnings...I think some of these are way overblown.

Wind....ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Backside Snow.....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I wonder if I could myself on ignore

Snow, snow go away cone again when the cold can stay

I believe that cell did go through the area. So sorry to hear that, I hope everyone is alright. I saw a video on X...not sure if if it was that tornado but it was a pretty large tornado tearing through a neighborhood.

agreed, there and east coastal Maine

3km with a pretty decent squall line moving across far eastern MA and the Cape late Monday morning/early afternoon. That would produce some serious wind gusts

My office room window at home faces East and it sucks this time of year because it starts getting dark by like 3 PM with the sun towards the other end of the house. Glad we finally start ticking later (Albeit slowly) with sunsets in the next few days but still like another 4-5 weeks of the sun rising later...yuck

A nice TDS in Tennessee. Forgot what severe weather looks like its been so dead

I read this...then look at the time. DEPRESSING

How's the NBM performance with temperatures at PWM compared to MET/MAV? I've noticed many times the NBM is on the lower side (especially with high temperatures). I did recently see you can now check NBM performance on Iowa State which will be fun to dig into.

Very fair

They seem to do an excellent job in the mountains out West but that's about it

As far as my understanding, the snow maps just take QPF falling as snow and then multiply it by a calculated ratio and that's it. I could be very wrong on this, but I've always assumed they don't really factor in much else. While I do think the snow maps can be very useful to aid in pinpointing where the gradient between rain/snow will be, oropgraphic influences, and what max totals may be, I don't think they provide any other value. As we know, during an event snowfall ratios are not constant and there are many factors which influence ratios; (snowgrowth, lift, moisture) and I don't believe the algorithms behind these maps incorporate these.

Moreso with the totals. Some of the totals being spit out seem way too high. For ski country it's probably a different story though...they may get it good which is fantastic news for them. There doesn't seem to be an issue with the CAA in the llvls but the colder temperatures at the surface really look to lag. Where rates are intense that will offset this a bit but outside of ski country it could really have trouble sticking in many places.

I am going to screen shot some model snowfall maps from the past few days and then compare them to what actually occurs. I bet the result will be laughable.