weatherwiz

We are still just about 2.5 weeks away from the official start of our severe weather season, but that doesn't mean we can't get severe weather before then. The greatest overall potential is to the west of our region where the Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk in place for the potential of damaging wind gusts. A marginal risk for severe weather extends to the I-91 corridor across Massachusetts and Connecticut. Anyways, the most impressive element Sunday will the advection of very steep mid-level lapse rates: Shear will be impressive with 40-50+ knots of bulk shear overspreading the region Unfortunately, despite the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates, surface temperatures only into the 60's with dewpoints into the 40's (maybe climbing into the lower 50's late) will hold back on instability potential and instability will be marginal at best. Also, while we have impressive shortwave energy and shortwave trough digging into the region, this does lag the sfc cold front so the best forcing will be a bit displaced: What can we expect? A line of heavy rain and embedded thunder should move across the region, particularly across western areas during the late afternoon and early evening Combination of steep lapse rates, strong winds aloft, and a bit of an inverted V look will promote the potential for some localized damaging wind gusts within the line

Being tickled by a marginal risk

65+

No

Most humid summer on record?

I am itching to start a thread for strong thunderstorm potential later next week. Someone pinch me

Today blows. Was just thinking to myself...it looks like 7:00 AM out there.

Can we pop an early EML event?

I don't think the GFS is that terrible

Some lightning strikes northwest of Pittsfield!

Nice model difference tomorrow within the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Some pretty drastic differences at H5 across the country tomorrow.

In another 5 days the 384 HR GFS will be into May!

Thinking wind damage may be the greatest overall threat. Greatest tornado threat probably on the southern flank but it may turn out the southern flank is right along the coast or just off. We'll see how far north the warm front/greatest moisture return can get which should influence northern periphery of the bow/mcs

Hopefully we can get something like this in the next few months

how about this instead

I know its like 3 or 4 weeks too early but I can't help but toggle through the CAPE maps through 384 hours. Its depressing seeing some big CAPE values within the Ohio Valley and sneak into portions of Pennsylvania and then just get poo pooed away but our time is coming.

Are you sticking around Dallas for the severe wx?

I actually may need to make some hot chocolate now. I was only wearing a short-sleeved shirt and a very light jacket. I'm cold now.

Taken at 3:30 PM EDT from Springfield

Had to lay in my back to be able to make this work

All this satellite watching and hoping for full Sun has me geared up for severe wx season.

Just went outside with glasses and can see it!

Thankfully not the same folks that are in charge of rebuilding the Mets

Agreed, only source that matters is USGS.

The magnitude estimates are all over the palce right now...